These ridiculous grades of the Miami Draft

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Fin Thirteen, Jul 12, 2012.

  1. Fin Thirteen

    Fin Thirteen FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    When I see draft grades of C and the like for the Fins this year, I find it hard to believe there isn't a bias against us and/or a lot of nonsense published about player evaluation.

    But these things are inherently very subjective, so it's hard to criticize one guy's opinion. Nevertheless, I decided to have a look at the NFL Draft Grade given to each and every player (except a few lesser lights) leading up to the Draft and see how all 32 teams did against the player grades. I took the average of all picks made by the team, as some teams had more picks than others. A straight average is a little oversimplified, as teams with more picks are likely to have had more late round picks, but the idea was not to be scientific.

    I know the NFL Draft Grade in itself is subjective, sometimes maybe even totally inaccurate in some cases. But if the NFL are happy to put their name to it, then the analysts the NFL employs should surely not totally ignore the validity of their own proprietary grading system when handing out Cs and Ds to teams.

    Sooooo, out of all 32 teams in the NFL Draft, care to guess which one had the highest average NFL Draft Grade across all picks?

    Yup.

    Fins had an average 76.9, just above the Bengals 76.7.

    Again, for the record, I doubt the accuracy of the NFL Draft Grades as a predictor for the future. Do I believe we had the best draft of everyone? Probably not. But I know that the team who drafted the players with the highest average NFL grade should be ruled automatically out of the C and D grade territory from some of these "experts", particularly NFL analysts.

    The full list for what it's worth:

    [TABLE="width: 423"]

    Dolphins
    [TD="align: right"]76.9[/TD]

    Bengals
    [TD="align: right"]76.7[/TD]

    Cardinals
    [TD="align: right"]72.5[/TD]

    Packers
    [TD="align: right"]72.3[/TD]

    Bills
    [TD="align: right"]72.1[/TD]

    Chiefs
    [TD="align: right"]72.1[/TD]

    Texans
    [TD="align: right"]71.1[/TD]

    Eagles
    [TD="align: right"]71.1[/TD]

    Browns
    [TD="align: right"]71.1[/TD]

    Chargers
    [TD="align: right"]70.2[/TD]

    Rams
    [TD="align: right"]70.1[/TD]

    Panthers
    [TD="align: right"]70.1[/TD]

    Steelers
    [TD="align: right"]69.8[/TD]

    Giants
    [TD="align: right"]69.3[/TD]

    Buccaneers
    [TD="align: right"]69.0[/TD]

    Vikings
    [TD="align: right"]68.8[/TD]

    Lions
    [TD="align: right"]68.0[/TD]

    Titans
    [TD="align: right"]67.9[/TD]

    Colts
    [TD="align: right"]67.6[/TD]

    Ravens
    [TD="align: right"]67.4[/TD]

    Jaguars
    [TD="align: right"]67.3[/TD]

    Patriots
    [TD="align: right"]67.0[/TD]

    49ers
    [TD="align: right"]67.0[/TD]

    Broncos
    [TD="align: right"]66.4[/TD]

    Jets
    [TD="align: right"]66.3[/TD]

    Cowboys
    [TD="align: right"]64.9[/TD]

    Redskins
    [TD="align: right"]63.2[/TD]

    Bears
    [TD="align: right"]62.7[/TD]

    Falcons
    [TD="align: right"]61.5[/TD]

    Seahawks
    [TD="align: right"]60.7[/TD]

    Raiders
    [TD="align: right"]58.8[/TD]

    Saints
    [TD="align: right"]56.6[/TD]
    [/TABLE]
     
  2. LikeUntoGod

    LikeUntoGod The Oracle

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    How many of the players we drafted will be starters in week one?
     
  3. Fin Thirteen

    Fin Thirteen FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    What has that to do with anything? Most of the players the Packers pick won't start in week 1, does that make any potential draft they could have made an automatic D?
     
  4. Vaark

    Vaark Nihil taurus crappus Finheaven VIP Donator

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  5. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    can you give a break down of what each individual picks grade was???
     
  6. Nublar7

    Nublar7 Retired Finheaven VIP

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    It is not about who will be week one starters in 2012, it is about who will be starters a few years from now. Chances are Martin will be the only starter in 2012. However three years from now, Tannehill, Martin, Vernon, Egnew and Miller could all be starters.
     
  7. JCane

    JCane Administrator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Can't believe that people really think there's some bias against Miami. Other teams got average grades as well.

    Also no sure why some worry about draft grades. They're opinions just like your opinion of our draft is higher than a C and clearly your opinion IS bias.

    Let dudes get on the field for a couple of seasons and see what they've got.
     
  8. NY8123

    NY8123 Sophisticated Redneck Administrator Finheaven VIP

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    The point of Thirteen's post is to illustrate how the opinion around the draft changes dramatically with the subjectivity of the media. His pre draft average data shows that even though a player is highly touted and regarded as a decent pick the subjectivity of the analytical media will sway their opinions based on what teams the players are drafted to.

    Predraft grades become irrelevant and now a new grade is assigned based on the preface of team needs, player quality and expected team draft picks.

    It really is all subjective and opinion based, no one knows who is going to pan out and who is going to bust out. The Colts may very well be looking for a QB in 2014 or 2015 just like the Dolphins, maybe Weeden goes on to be an all pro, maybe Tannehill is the gem of the draft.

    What I do know is that Miami had need at QB, Safety, RT, OLB/DE, WR and depth at TE, depth at LB. They picked up a QB, RT, DE, TE, LB, 2x WR, RB and a DT. I would have liked to see safety help but the class was thin on no miss talent.

    I'd say that was a pretty good draft considering the abysmal free agent period Jeff had up to the draft. I know not everyone of those guys are going to make the cut but even if you get two starters and two quality depth players it is successful, the two starters need to be at QB and RT of course.
     
  9. CRAZYDOLFAN305

    CRAZYDOLFAN305 We Are Still Going To The SB

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    Good ****ing job homey. I know you must have put alot into this. Don't worry for some facts are useless. Being a numbers guy, I love the analysis.
     
  10. Gonzo

    Gonzo Widerstand Administrator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I have several friends who are Saints fans and they feel there is strong bias against the Saints. A couple of friends here are Giants fans and they feel there is a bias against the Giants. When I lived in Dallas, co-workers felt there was a bias against the Cowboys. Growing up in Phoenix, there was tremendous bias against the cards, according to the 5 fans they had before their SB run.

    Amazing that there's so much bias out there.
     
  11. Fin Thirteen

    Fin Thirteen FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Sure (columns got a little screwed up in the cut and paste, but the NFL Draft Grade is the number on the right):


    [TABLE="class: players-grid-table, width: 100%"]

    [TD="class: col-pickext"]PICK[/TD]
    [TD="class: col-player"]PLAYER[/TD]
    [TD="class: col-pos"]POS[/TD]
    [TD="class: col-height"]HT[/TD]
    [TD="class: col-weight"]WT[/TD]
    COLLEGE
    [TD="class: col-grade"]GRADE[​IMG][/TD]
    [TD="class: col-video"]WATCH[/TD]
    [TR="class: drafted-data-row analysis-row-expanded"]

    Round 1, Pick 8 (8)
    Ryan Tannehill
    QB
    6'4"
    221
    Texas A&M
    87.0

    [/TR]
    [TR="class: analysis-row analysis-row-expanded drafted-data-row"]

    [TD="colspan: 8"]Pick Analysis: Mayock's take: "I have him rated as the 19th best player in the draft, which tells you I don't think he's ready to be a heavy contributor this year. I watched every throw he made on tape this year. All the out-breaking routes are phenomenal. Where he gets in trouble are the in-breaking routes where he stares the receiver down, pats the ball and throws interceptions."[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: drafted-data-row-alt analysis-row-expanded"]

    Round 2, Pick 10 (42)
    Jonathan Martin
    OT
    6'5"
    312
    Stanford
    87.0

    [/TR]
    [TR="class: analysis-row analysis-row-expanded drafted-data-row-alt"]

    [TD="colspan: 8"]Pick Analysis: Mayock's take: "First-round talent right here, tremendous arm length. I call him a little bit of a finesse player. Doesn't mean he's not tough, but he's so good with his feet and understands angles. I believe the Dolphins just got themselves a starter on either the right or left side."[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: drafted-data-row analysis-row-expanded"]

    Round 3, Pick 9 (72)
    Olivier Vernon
    DE
    6'2"
    261
    Miami
    82.0

    [/TR]
    [TR="class: analysis-row analysis-row-expanded drafted-data-row"]

    [TD="colspan: 8"]Pick Analysis: Mayock's take: "Out of all the underclassmen that came out this year, and I didn't think many should have, Vernon is one that I banged the table for. He's a solid 4-3 defensive end who can get edge pressure on the quarterback."[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: drafted-data-row-alt analysis-row-expanded"]

    Round 3, Pick 15 (78) (From Chargers)
    Michael Egnew
    TE
    6'5"
    252
    Missouri
    71.5

    [/TR]
    [TR="class: analysis-row analysis-row-expanded drafted-data-row-alt"]

    [TD="colspan: 8"]Pick Analysis: Mayock's take: "When you think Missouri tight end, you think freakish athlete who doesn't block. Well, this is true again. He can really run, and he's a natural hands catcher."[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: drafted-data-row analysis-row-expanded"]

    Round 4, Pick 2 (97) (From Colts through 49ers)
    Lamar Miller
    RB
    5'11"
    212
    Miami
    84.5

    [/TR]
    [TR="class: analysis-row analysis-row-expanded drafted-data-row"]

    [TD="colspan: 8"]Pick Analysis: Bucky Brooks' take: Miller gives the Dolphins a home run threat in the backfield. He is explosive with the ball in his hands and displays outstanding burst when running on the perimeter. Miller needs to show better toughness in pass protection, but could develop into a dynamic weapon as a situational playmaker.[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: drafted-data-row-alt analysis-row-expanded"]

    Round 5, Pick 20 (155) (From Titans)
    Josh Kaddu
    LB
    6'3"
    239
    Oregon
    68.5

    [/TR]
    [TR="class: analysis-row analysis-row-expanded drafted-data-row-alt"]

    [TD="colspan: 8"]Pick Analysis: Bucky Brooks' take: Kaddu is an athletic linebacker with speed and quickness. He excels in a "run and chase" scheme that allows him to use his speed to harass running backs at the second level.[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: drafted-data-row analysis-row-expanded"]

    Round 6, Pick 13 (183) (From Chargers)
    B.J. Cunningham
    WR
    6'1"
    211
    Michigan St.
    73.5

    [/TR]
    [TR="class: analysis-row analysis-row-expanded drafted-data-row"]

    [TD="colspan: 8"]Pick Analysis: Bucky Brooks' take: Cunningham is an underrated pass catcher with skills. He is a good route runner with savvy and quickness and could make immediate contributions as a third or fourth receiver.[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: drafted-data-row-alt analysis-row-expanded"]

    Round 7, Pick 8 (215)
    Kheeston Randall
    DT
    6'4"
    293
    Texas
    64.5

    [/TR]
    [TR="class: analysis-row analysis-row-expanded drafted-data-row-alt"]

    [TD="colspan: 8"]Pick Analysis: Bucky Brooks' take: Randall was once touted as an early-round prospect, but a disappointing final season leveled his draft stock. However, he possesses the size and strength to emerge as a quality interior defender as a pro.[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: drafted-data-row analysis-row-expanded"]

    Round 7, Pick 20 (227) (From Titans)
    Rishard Matthews
    WR
    6'0"
    212
    Nevada
    73.5

    [/TR]
    [TR="class: analysis-row analysis-row-expanded drafted-data-row"]

    [TD="colspan: 8"]Pick Analysis: Bucky Brooks' take: Matthews is a productive pass catcher with sneaky skills. He could outplay his draft status quickly in Miami.[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
     
  12. KTOWNFINFAN

    KTOWNFINFAN Seasoned Veteran

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    ?? What the crap does that have to do with anything?? This has nothing to do with whether or not a team starts it's draft picks, or needs to, for that matter. The NFL rated the college prospects before the draft, and if you use their OWN draft grades and add all of each teams draft picks up and get a average score per player per team then ours is the highest, according to the OP. This has nothing to do with if a team is better and has more talent so rookies probably won't be starting.

    I am also sure that as the OP has stated there are obvious flaws in the absolute accuracy, such as worse teams draft earlier in every round so they SHOULD have a higher total draft grade, or was any credit given for teams with fewer draft picks in higher rounds etc. But I do agree it is funny how so many writers have our draft as terrible when we are the ones at the top of the list. Very interesting prospective.
     
  13. Dsteve

    Dsteve Well-Known Member

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    our draft scores are low becaue we took a lot of prospects that are projects. there is no bias, we took a bunch of unoproven players, even for rookies. Tannehill only has a handful of starts at qb, vernon missed half the season last year, miller could have injury issues, egnew had a drop off after his quarterback left last year...

    could all those picks end up being good? yeah but not likely.

    there is no ****ing bias....lol our team just sucks, we havent been good since the 90's. when they start winning this all goes away!


    the OP did a nice job in this thread though. props to you sir.
     
  14. JCane

    JCane Administrator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    If we went to message boards across the Internet and polled their users about a negative bias against their team, I guarantee all of them would feel that the media treats them unfairly. It's all a matter of what you pay attention to. We pay attention to the Dolphons because we're emotionally attached. If media talks about another team, we tune out.

    I have friends who believe that the media hate the Miami Heat lol. Laughable.
     
  15. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    ehhh...bucky brooks take....ehhh

    thanks for the grades 13...
     
  16. Canadianfishfan

    Canadianfishfan FinHeavean VIP

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    You mean people aren't used to being the NFL punching bag. It's being going on for years.

    Winning cures everything. Don't put any stock in off season prognosticators.

    We're all 0-0.
     
  17. Fin Thirteen

    Fin Thirteen FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Hahaha - I hear ya about Bucky. Wanted to take the analyst comments out but didn't have time to edit the chart offline!
     
  18. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    i think all in all its a pretty solid draft...took the chance on the qb with the tools...got a tackle for the future although i don't think he's ready right now and i think they plan on rolling with him as a starter from the jump which might get ugly at times...lamar miller offers some much needed explosion...vernons got nice tools a great motor and strength more stout against the run than i expected...dislike the egnew pick like i disliked the patrick turner pick but its a need and he brings size and speed albeit in a pillow soft game...kaddu brings athleticism speed and special teams prowess...the late wrs could develop...randall for my money is a better than 7th round developmental dt prospect...
     
  19. DuderinoN703

    DuderinoN703 We? What the **** we? Finheaven VIP Donator

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    If there's a bias against the Saints it must have happened before Brees or now with the Bounty Gate scandal. N.Y. Giants? It's New York, 'nuff said. Dallas? They are America's Team so there's a ton of bias. Arizona? Do they even count?
     
  20. DDTDON

    DDTDON Seasoned Veteran

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    Some of you are missing the point entirely. Fin thirteen, I get what you were trying to say, interesting theory. You put a lot into it and it was an enjoyable read. Good job!
     
  21. Gonzo

    Gonzo Widerstand Administrator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    My point was that fans of every team think there is a bias against their team. And no, cards fans don't count.
     
  22. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    there was no bias against the saints when they got every call on the way to the superbowl...there was just some bad officiating...

    some bad calls against us that's for sure...
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 12, 2012
  23. JCane

    JCane Administrator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    No team in any sport has ever won a title without the help of referees and commissioners lol.
     
  24. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    i knew you'd go there...

    the saints run wasn't as blatant as the heats finals games 2-4...ha ha
     
  25. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Awe "Tight End" my favorite position!

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    Only a homer would think this draft deserves a higher grade than a "C" at this point.

    If any other team took a project QB with a top 10 pick who is projected to be a 3rd string QB I doubt a single Dolphin fan would give that team a higher grade than a "C."
     
  26. Cumar

    Cumar Active Member Donator

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    Come on now, a Dallas fan thinking there is bias against the Cowboys? Is this a joke? The Self-Dubbed America's team? I don't buy it.
     
  27. Gonzo

    Gonzo Widerstand Administrator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    [​IMG]

    Cowboys fans more than any precisely for that reason. The more blindly homeristic you are, the more "bias" you see against your beloved team.
     
  28. JCane

    JCane Administrator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Yeap.

    Us taking Ryan Tannehill is no different than the Jets taking Mark Sanchez and feeling like there's a media bias because they got a C. And us Dolphin fans laughed and poked at them for taking a "project QB" so high.
     
  29. LikeUntoGod

    LikeUntoGod The Oracle

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    When you see grades, that is what they are looking at.
     
  30. tazthenomad

    tazthenomad FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I'm not sure I buy the idea of judging the quality of the draft by "how many players start right away" criteria.

    Is it better to have RT sit? If he does and becomes a star in 3 years does that make his selection a bad one? If one of the new WR's starts with our current situation and doesn't excel does that make him a successful pick?

    I'm for waiting a few years before making a judgment on a draft.
     
  31. tazthenomad

    tazthenomad FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I agree that we're open to criticism for taking someone with lower experience with a high pick but seriously ... you don't see a physical difference in the abilities between Sanchez and RT????

    I saw a lot of Sanchez when he was at USC and I could see a difference!
     
  32. LikeUntoGod

    LikeUntoGod The Oracle

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    I

    agree. But we are talking about "blip" news here. The media needs a letter or number NOW! They need something to fill the news hole, and a "who has the best draft in 3 years" is not going to cut it. So in the 34 minutes he took to write this, he simply figured out (this coming from someone else) how many players drafting would start and how many of those early picks would start.
     
  33. CANDolphan

    CANDolphan Seasoned Veteran

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    Wow. This is the draft, not free agency.
     
  34. JCane

    JCane Administrator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Criticism of any draft pick is fair.

    As crazy as it sounds, even criticism of Andrew Luck is fair and warranted.

    And personally, I loved Mark Sanchez at USC. He was great. Hated that the Jets was able to land him and I still have faith that he can be a good QB in this league.

    I liked Sanchez at USC a lot more than I like Tannehill at A&M.
     
  35. endorPHINS72

    endorPHINS72 Restore the greatness!

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    Haters gonna hate...lol
     
  36. Fin Thirteen

    Fin Thirteen FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    BTW,

    The Saints and Raiders are at the bottom as much because they had no early round picks as anything else.

    I did take a sneaky look at the draft grades Ted Slimm handed out to the bottom teams in my list to see how they compare and - by and large - the trend is similar.

    If some teams drafted a couple of great players in the first two rounds, who could end up being pro-bowlers, but trash in the later rounds, their score in my simple methodology would suffer and they'd end up in the bottom half of the table.

    So, it's not scientific. But as one poster said, it's to illustrate how skewed the evaluation of players who were great before the draft becomes when a team name is put beside them.
     
  37. Zounds

    Zounds CPA4LYFE Donator

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    Why not make it scientific? I dont want to rain on your parade, but I think weighing the amount of picks and where they were taken is a pretty big deal when considering value.
     
  38. Fin Thirteen

    Fin Thirteen FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Because it takes a lot more time and I have a company to run!
     
  39. DuderinoN703

    DuderinoN703 We? What the **** we? Finheaven VIP Donator

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    That sounds reasonable but I don't think it's possible. ESPN certainly sweats the nuts of specific NFL teams. I don't watch the NFL Network so I can't comment on them.
     
  40. allsilverdreams

    allsilverdreams Starter Finheaven VIP Donator

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    the raiders lol when will they get it
     

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