Top 32 (+) with Grades

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by j-off-her-doll, Apr 6, 2014.

  1. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Pretty simple grading system. 1, 2, or 3. The numbers represent likelihood for success. 1) Unlikely to achieve sustained success in NFL. 2) Good chance to achieve sustained success in a system conducive to the given player’s skill set. 3) Very likely to achieve sustained success. “S” indicates Strong, and “W” indicates Weak. And the +’s indicate upside. ++ indicates talent to be top 5 at given position. + indicates talent to be very productive, fringe Pro Bowl. Zero +’s indicate an upside that tops out at solid. You won’t see any on this list, but if a player is given a “-“, it indicates that the player just barely has enough talent to play in the NFL. Upside is not solely predicated upon athletic ability, but it’s obviously a factor.

    Aaron Donald, for example is rated a W3+. I believe he’ll be a productive player for a long time, and he’s a freak athlete, but his size (for me) keeps him from being a solid 3, and it also keeps him as a single “+” player.



    1. Greg Robinson 3++
    2. Jadeveon Clowney W3++
    3. Ryan Shazier 3++
    4. Johnny Manziel S2++
    5. Khalil Mack W3++
    6. Sammy Watkins W3++
    7. Taylor Lewan 3+
    8. Jake Matthews 3+
    9. Aaron Donald W3+
    10. Jimmie Ward S2++

    http://mrebird.wordpress.com/2014/04/06/top-32-with-grade/
     
  2. Dolphin39

    Dolphin39 Pro Bowler

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    Great list that is very interesting for those of us who are not experts....thank you for sharing it.

    However, where are the rest of the guys you predict we may target?
     
  3. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    You know, I have no idea what our FO will look to do. I can see them liking a guy like Kevin Pierre-Louis later in the draft at WLB. Undersized, explosive WLB with a good motor. BC used him to blitz a fair amount, and he was pretty good at it. One guy I'm liking in the later rounds (probably not for Miami) is the safety from Utah State, Maurice Alexander. CBS currently has him as their 461st prospect. But I think he could be a Kam Chancellor kind of SS. Big, strong, imposing in-the-box safety. 9 TFL from the safety position. Don't know a lot about him, but there seem to be major character concerns (both legally and with teammates - punched one, causing him to be dismissed from team).
     
  4. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    that's the first time i have seen a grading system like this....kinda strange

    does it mean shaziers like a top 3 rated prospect in the class or something....wowzers
     
  5. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Yeah, I wanted a grading system that gives a quick look at a player (or how I view the player). The odds and potential payoff distinct but interactive. I'm guessing I'll have to work out some kinks, but I think 2++ paints a better picture than 8.13.

    But yeah, I think a guy like Shazier only comes around once every five or ten years. He's about as clean as it gets, as safe as it gets, and he has all-world upside. If I had to bet on which player from this draft would end his career with the most All Pro teams, I'd bet Robinson then Shazier. Clowney's a freak, and he plays at a premium position.
     
  6. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    whether i agree or not i'm glad that you are willing to put it out there when you have a conviction...there's not many that do around here
     
  7. showstopper

    showstopper Starter

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    I respect the fact that you have your own analysis and not just a twitter clone follower opinion. Totally agree with your love for Shaz, my friends mock me for thinking of him as a top ten talent.
     
  8. justdev7

    justdev7 Rookie

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    I'd be interested to hear a little bit more about what you think of Moncrief. I think he has the physical tools to succeed at the X but he doesn't attack the ball like a guy that I would want to be a #1 WR. He reminds me of Jacoby Jones.

    Also, i'm glad to see that you have Jason Verrett in thae middle of that group of CBs. I think he's been knocked too hard for his size. He makes plays on the ball regardless of the size of the guy he's going up against. I think he's more of a sure thing than Roby, Fuller, or Denard.
     
  9. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Saw recently that Kiper said you can make a case for Shazier as one of the 10 best players in this draft. You're not alone :^p
     
  10. Twitches Brew

    Twitches Brew A True Fan

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    Verrett's definitely a first round talent, imo. I'd take either him or Fuller at 19, probably leaning towards Fuller between the two.
     
  11. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    In Moncrief, you have a Julio Jones level athlete. He's not super clean, imo - hence the W2++. But I do believe Bo Wallace held back his production. He can be productive early - just running bubble screens and goes.

    I have the CB group as very tight. Verrett reminds me of Grimes with higher upside. I think Fuller is probably the surest thing - just because of his size and versatility.
     
  12. Fin Thirteen

    Fin Thirteen FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Interesting. Utah State had one of the best defenses (particularly run defenses) in the country. Even allowing for the fact they're Mountain West, there are some talented players on that defense. Alexander is one, they have a good CB and the guy I'm personally very interested in is Jake Doughty, 4-3 MLB. Borland clone, available in the 7th or maybe UDFA. Undersized, physical, instinctual, mobile, leader, difference maker. He might be a riser as he and all the Utah State prospects blew the doors off their pro day - so much so that the scouts went out and measured the 40yd track to be sure it wasn't short!

    Of the late-round safeties, I like Alden Darby of Arizona State a lot. Really not sure why he isn't rated higher. A Bit like Duron Harmon of Rutgers last year (who I was bigging up a bit before the draft) he wasn't on the radar of any mock drafts whatsoever and then went to the Pats in the 3rd round. That was a big reach, but clearly there are late round guys out there who don't deserve the lack of attention they've had and I would put Doughty and Darby in that bracket.

    ---------- Post added at 10:30 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:29 AM ----------

    Gilbert, Verrett, Fuller for me, in that order. Depending of course on your scheme fit.
     
  13. BlueFin

    BlueFin Seer of Visions Finheaven VIP

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    I've been thinking lately if Shazier mskes it to 19 we should grab him.
     
  14. futurescout

    futurescout Well-Known Member

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    No doubt Robinson #1. In 2-3 years I think he's the best offensive lineman in the league. No one ever mentions that both Watkins and Mack have been suspended.. pretty big red flag for a top 5 pick.. Shazier at #3 is high, but he's the real deal. Like Lavonte David-but can rush the passer/blitz and is an even more explosive hitter. 4.3 and 40 inch vert is insane. Supposed to be a really high character guy. I think he's 4-3 will only, but can be the best in the league. If Manziel was clean off the field he'd easily be the best QB but I think that will catch up to him. Getting kicked out of the Manning Camp is the biggest issue IMO. McCarron supposedly went out with him that same night and they roomed together, but McCarron could make it to the meeting.. Matthews should be over Lewan due to his talent, 5 position versatility, and bloodlines. He's the safest pick in the draft and Lewan has some character issues.. Really like Bucannon pro bowl caliber strong safety, poor man's Chancellor..Also Hageman is too inconsistent IMO to earn a top 32 grade.. Not sure why you're so high on Jimmie Ward and Kareem Martin.. wow Hill in the top 20? I don't see it. A RB in the 1st round? And with his past?????????????
     
  15. QFFL

    QFFL Active Member

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    I like the list. I wonder how many of they will actually be drafted in the first round?
     
  16. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    interesting on the shazier front...i hear he played this last season at ohio st at 225 lbs...i knew he looked light in the pants...12 lb weight gain since then doesn't seem to have effected him in a bad way though given the way he tested

    probably though more headed to playing in the low 230's as a pro...height will help though a little taller than lavonte david...
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 8, 2014
  17. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I like Darby a lot as a player, and I want to like him more as a prospect. At his Pro Day he weighed in at 194 and ran a 4.65. He's tested pretty solid in the other areas, but I sure hope that's not a friendly 40 time. But he shows great instincts, and he's a natural play maker. I think his size and athleticism keep him out of the first five rounds, but there's a lot to like too.

    Nevin Lawson is the Utah State CB, and I think he has a shot at sticking around in the NFL. He's a physical, competitive little guy, and he has solid speed and quickness. I think he'll probably be a team's 1st slot CB by his 2nd season, and I think that will ultimately be his best position. In the Fresno St. game, Adams got him a couple of times, but he was competitive throughout the game. Alexander, though, is very natural around the LOS. He looks like an athlete, flowing through traffic, tackling, and in coverage, and he has that closing burst. I'm guessing his off-field issues are serious enough to push him toward the 6th-UDFA range, but he's a nice looking player. Played some of the season with a cast on his right hand, and even though he missed the 2012 because of his issues, he led the defensive rally huddles. If you have the longer room to handle him (probably not Miami), he has great upside.
     
  18. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Hoops, I'm curious to hear what you think the DE position after Clowney. I'm also interested on your views on DB's.
     
  19. spiketex

    spiketex Kiko, El Bravo 47 - the yappy chihuahua Super Donator Donator

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    Excuse my ignorance. What sort of track record does MREBIRD have in assessing talent in previous years? There appear to be lots of surprises in this assessment of comparative talent.
    After every Draft Jeff Ireland would proudly proclaim the great value of many picks. However, last year many of the high early picks were either coming back from injury and unlikely to make an immediate contribution. (We will find out how good some of those draft picks were this year). If the method of assessing comparative players is significantly flawed, then it's a very crude tool.
     
  20. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Hi spiketex, the blog is new, but I've been posting on this site for a few years.
     
  21. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    frankly after the finnegan guaranteed 2014 salary signing i stopped really paying attention to corner and at de we are 4 deep already...guys that have already locked up spots on the 53 so if any resources go there imo it will be very late projects with upside or udfa type signings...

    but if you ask me about specific players i can give you my take...
     
  22. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Cool, cool. I know you don't like him, but I'd be interested to hear where you think Jeffcoat fits in this draft.

    Also, how about a Bradley Roby or Nevin Lawson (either or both)?
     
  23. Fin Thirteen

    Fin Thirteen FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Teams who ignore one bad final season and draft guys off their cumulative playing history seem to do particularly well. I think there's potential value with Jeffcoat, James Gayle, Roby and quite a few other players whose stock falls in their last year. There can be all sorts of mitigating factors, some of them outside the player's control. I wouldn't say it's a universal theme (see Matt Barkley) but I would definitely as a GM have my little database of guys who are slipping because they looked less convincing in a minority of games than they did in the majority.

    There's some value there, imo.
     
  24. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    The interesting thing about Jeffcoat - imo - is that he was seen as a fringe 1st RD pick in the 2013 draft (weaker class, granted) after a relatively unproductive junior season. He comes back and has a very good season - 13 sacks, 19 TFL, 15 QB hurries, 2 FF's, 1 INT, and 82 total tackles. He also tested well at the combine. I get that there are legitimate concerns about his bulk and movement in space, but he can get after the QB, and he has a high motor. In most drafts, I'd say he's a lock to go in the 2nd.
     
  25. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    as i recall jeffcoats undersized...i dont see the movement skills to play a every down 34 olb i dont see the size to play a every down de...i think he's a tweener...i'm not a fan personally...

    would pass on that

    roby is interesting but i think he can be an ankles tackler a dive tackler at times...late 1st early 2nd i think he comes off...explosive...my grade would be more in the 50 range but he's not a guy i would target...

    james gayle will never make it in the nfl as a pass rusher...doesnt have the tools or upside...would not draft...don't see any upside there
     
  26. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    jeremy hill increased his 40 time to low 4.5's from low 4.6's at the combine yesterday...that was big for him imo...big back showed long speed on tape for his size...if he gets out of the top 50 given the way he's cleaned his name in nfl front offices i will be floored

    someone gonna get a hell of a value later than they should in wr jarvis landry...dropped his 40 from 4.7 to 4.61 yesterday...love this kid...top 5 wr...should go top 50 easy but the wheels may drop him further in this class...tough as nails

    evidently trai turner put on a show as well...i'm not as high on beckham as others...i see a guy that runs 3 routes primarily the returns ability is nice but all this top 20 stuff or potential is too rich
     
  27. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I'd be happy drafting Hill in the 2nd. I had to knock him because of his combine performance (as I did Landry), but he looked leaner and meaner (that LA Kings hat was tough!) at his pro day. Also improved his vert to 31". I couldn't find his weigh-in results for the day, but I'd guess he was under 230.
     
  28. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    i think the way you look at it is he's a 4.55 guy at 230 lbs that runs thru contact and with power...in the late 4.4's at that size probably could justify higher but as is early to mid 2nd i'd say...

    if it gets out of the 2nd it's got to be off the field related...
     
  29. j-off-her-doll

    j-off-her-doll FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Saw a report from Russ Lande (I only saw highlights of the pro day) who said Hill displayed agility and acceleration usually reserved for smaller backs and that he caught the ball very well. I believe he said that he looked natural.

    I rank Hill as high as I do for a few reasons.

    1. RB's get knocked for shelf life, but most good prospects last through their rookie contracts.
    2. The best teams in the NFL rely on their running game.
    3. I think he has the right combination of size/strength and quickness/speed. I think people want RB's to look like Barry Sanders or Earl Campbell. Not too many players are going to shake NFL defenders out of their shoes, and not too many players are going to run through 5 NFL defenders. You want a guy who has the feet to make a defender off balance and the strength to run through arm tackles.
    4. He's very natural running the ball. I like Slimm's comparison to Larry Johnson, but I also see some Arian Foster to his game. He's a natural glider.

    RB's are - rightly or wrongly - devalued, so I'm not advocating drafting him higher than you have to, but I think he's one of the best 32 players in the draft.
     
  30. Twitches Brew

    Twitches Brew A True Fan

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    RBs are being wrongfully de-valued. Pretty badly, imo, when you're talking young QBs.

    Case in point: Here's a list of stud QBs, along with the backfields they had in their first couple years. Stud RBs or just a heavy ground game are invaluable to developing a QB in his first couple years.

    Peyton: Marshall Faulk & Edgerrin James
    Brady: Dillon, run-heavy
    Brees: L Tomlinson
    Rivers: L Tomlinson
    Eli: Tiki
    Ben: Bettis, run-heavy
    Matt Ryan: Turner in his prime (1,800yds)
    Flacco: Rice
    Wilson: Lynch
    Kaep: Gore

    These are the guys making Superbowls. Look at the help they had when they entered the League. These are the kinds of workhorses you can lean on for entire drives and stretches of a game, feature backs who set up manageable third downs and put it in the endzone. And here we are developing Tannehill with mighty Moreno, Miller, and Thomas...smh.
     
  31. futurescout

    futurescout Well-Known Member

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    Really weak DE class after Clowney.... like really weak.. Ealy doesn't look like first rounder at all, or 2nd, or 3rd......
     

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