Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by j-off-her-doll, Mar 18, 2014.
Is this your work?
I agree with Hill as the top back...said that while ago. Only thing that knocks him are things off the field in his past. Always reminded me a little of Larry Johnson coming out of Penn St.
Also agree with Greg Robinson as the top OT, and best player in the draft. This guy is amazing. Clowney's inconsistency is the only thing holding him back.... but I think he'll figure it out real quick.
I can't put Manziel above Bridgewater, but I like Mettenberger in the top 5. And Aaron Murray is a better prospect than A.J. McCarron. People still sleeping on David Fales.
I'd have Moncrief over Marqise Lee. Jordan Matthews, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, and Allen Robinson can all be interchangeable depending on what it is you're looking for. Matthews is a heck of a player. Been watching him since he was 16 years old. He has what it takes in terms of support, priorities, work ethic, and character away from football that facilitates a successful professional. He's going to be a steal for somebody outside of the 1st round.
Jeremy Hill is a stud. I think he comes in and makes a huge impact immediately.
I agree with several of the positions for the most part. I'd take Allan Robinson or Brandin Cooks over Lee though personally. And I like Lee..
Miami should think serious about adding a WR. I'm taking Odell Beckham at #19.
It is. Started off much more active with the blog, but I haven't had as much time/energy to devote to it as I'd like. I am happy with the music selections to date.
Very cool. Also great work on the list. I would have similar lists. I know you are as high on Hill as I am. I just don't see what others see that think Hyde and some of these other guys are in his league. I like Lache but Hill is all by himself
I completely agree on Clowney's inconsistency being the separating factor between him and Robinson. I also think that he'll be fine and worth considering as the #1 overall pick.
I'm completely sympathetic to Bridgewater > Manziel. I like almost everything about Bridgewater, and I disagree with the idea that he lacks special traits. I'm just really high on Manziel. I'm curious to see what happens with Fales. I don't see him as better than Mettenberger or Murray, but he has a natural way about him, and I don't take your views lightly.
Watkins through Moncrief is pretty close. I wouldn't be surprised to see any of those four end up being the best. I've gone back and forth - ranking Moncrief as high as #2. Ultimately, I favored Evans and Lee for their production - not that I fault Moncrief. I'm with you on that next group. I'd be happy with any one of them in Miami.
I agree about Greg Robinson, just an amazing run blocker and athlete. Best player in the draft imo, can become the best run blocking OT in the league and I don't see any reason why he can't develop into a rock solid pass blocker, just needs the reps. He jumped out at me more than any player in this draft, including Clowney. One word came to mind watching him play- "Wow".
I don't see Miami going wr in the first, but that is a talented group. Brandin Cooks reminds me a little bit of OJ McDuffie with electric speed. I know that seems like an odd comparison, but he's just a guy whose always open and I'd love to see the team add a player like that in the slot. Giibson's not bad there, but coming off an injury. Hartline ended the year with an injury as well.
I would also rank Hill as the top rb, but doubt Miami looks past his character issues. Still like James Wilder Jr. as a late round potential steal.
Good stuff. Two questions:
What are your thoughts on Troy Niklas that are keeping him off the list? I love him, personally.
Which, if any, RBs would you take in the first round?
I like Niklas. Cut him at the last second to add Jensen. Ultimately, I might remove ASJ from my top 5 altogether.
Aside from character concerns, I think Hill is worth a 1st RD pick. I see Hyde, Carey, Seastrunk, and Mason are all 2nd-3rd RD players. But I think there's a decent chance Carey could be there in the 4th.
Watching him completely collapse the left side of the line on one play and then get to the perimeter on a screen the next play is something different. I haven't seen that combination of power and athleticism at the OT position.
Robinson is an extremely rare prospect. Everything about his combine performance for a kid that size hasn't been seen before. To top it off, it's unusual to see a player that dominant be so young. His combine numbers validate why we haven't seen this before in an offensive tackle.
This is a kid that still has tremendous upside despite the dominance he displays on film. He plays with a purpose on every single snap. His purpose seemed to be to annihilate his assignment. You can't coach that.
I very much agree with this. He's a high character guy that I'd love to have in a Miami uniform.
Jordan Matthews seems like a perfect fit for Miami, but my question is whether he will last to the 2nd round. If so, I'd be all over that pick.
I think there's a good chance one of those WR's will be available in the 2nd.
I like him as well. I like Robinson more but I think Matthews has a great future ahead of him.
Hill is not the #1 RB in this draft. He runs too high and his pass protection is subpar. Oddly, I see some similarities to Daniel Thomas.
Agree to disagree. He looks nothing like D Thomas. Thomas is a finesse back regardless of his size....Hill is not. Hill averaged 7 ypc in the SEC..I thought he was the best back in the country outside of maybe Melvin Gordon.
If Bridgewater somehow slips to #19 and we don't take him, I'm not sure there's much reason to pay attention to 2014, or the Hickey era in general. You have to completely forget you have Tannehill on the roster and simply pull the trigger. I don't believe he'll slide that far but Daniel Jeremiah had him down to #26 in his mock tonight, after sampling opinion following that pro day.
The pro day was hysterical, BTW. Who cares about errant throws on roll outs? That's not even Bridgewater's game. It never has been, dating to Northwestern High. He's a pocket type who can calmly drop it into the bucket as well as anyone in recent memory. It's easily the strength of his game. Downfield on more conventional throws he still needs some work, as I witnessed at the Russell Athletic Bowl.
I still can't get over those roll out plays. Those account for what, 3-6% of NFL throws? Fans clamor for them but they are worthless, essentially cutting off half the field on yourself. If the typical fan had his say, every other throw would be a screen pass or a roll out.
I like most of the ratings. Marquise Lee higher than most is very astute, along with spotlighting a past season. He was more brilliant that year than guys rated ahead of him have ever been. So much talk about drops. But how often are passes dropped? If you fixate on that type of thing it's like over valuing bunker play in golf analysis. Great, he'll be in a bunker once per round. Nice focus. A receiver drops a pass less than once per game. I have no idea how the low percentage categories carry so much attention.
I'll be sick if we name Zach Martin. That would be the draft equivalent of patching our stadium for $400 million. Sure, we're technically better off than we were 5 minutes ago, but at what cost? You can't afford to be that simple and shortsighted. In a draft receiving raves for front line talent there have to be superior options than a narrow-framed short-armed 23 year old workmanlike player.
I wouldn't pass on Bridgewater or Manziel at 19. To me, they're clearly the two best QB's in the draft. I think Bortles has a lot of potential, but given the elite traits that both Bridgewater and Manziel possess, I don't think he has a higher ceiling than either, and I think he's much more likely to bust. I really dislike the way guys like DJ handle their mocks. You still think Bridgewater is the best QB, but you're projecting him to fall to #26? Instead of guessing which teams might take who, tell us who YOU think they should draft. Emory Hunt takes this approach, and his mocks are always more interesting - mostly because of this. I think Manziel and Bridgewater are two of the very best QB prospects over the last 5+ seasons. I'd only rate Luck and Newton ahead of them. Passing on either to build around a guy who has never been great doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if any of the top 4 WR's (according to me) become the best from this class.
If you handle FA and the middle rounds well, you shouldn't feel compelled to draft Zach Martin in the 1st. Obviously, we haven't done either well under Ireland, but that doesn't change how we should approach this draft. For some reason, people seem to gloss over the idea that to draft Martin is to miss out on players (that other teams will acquire) who are much better. If you aren't adding elite talent in the draft, you're behind the other teams that are. When we drafted Tannehill, I remember Slimm warning that you're passing up better talent. He mocked Kuechly to us. I think there's a good chance that we'll be in the QB market sooner rather than later, and it sure would be nice to have Kuechly in the middle of our D. But this is even worse. When you need a QB, there's some justification at least for reaching. But an OG or a RT? GTFO! If you can't find a good one beyond the 1st, you're ****ed anyway.
if i'm houston i don't care about the pro day showing i'm taking teddy bridgewater...i have seen plenyt of evidence of his ability to throw with pace and accuracy on the rollout and on the move...to his strong and weak side...
pro day wouldn't deter me at all...
have to disagree though with the zach martin takes...i don't need special oline play i just need solid and dependable...and i think he's that at right tackle or guard...
I've seen EVERY game Teddy has played in college and I can tell you there are zero issues with him on his roll out passes. The funny thing is he may actually be a bit better throwing when he's rolling to his left. The way he squares his shoulders to the LOS on those throws and drops them on a dime to his receiver? Yes please.
I think what you're hearing about Bridgewater is the smoke screen affect. Sure there are a few front offices that have Bridgewater lower than most but I bet it's not many. All the QB needy teams (and some that aren't) that are high on him are feeding crap to the draft media to make others have second thoughts about him. Blah blah...his small frame...blah blah...lack of leadership...whatever. He's the best pre-snap QB since Andrew Luck that needs some work on his deep ball. He has the ball placement accuracy that you can't teach, a film room - football first junky, and is as tough as nails.
I seriously doubt he gets past #3 much less all the way down to #26. That's just stupid.
As of this stage Bridgewater isn't in the top 2 QB prospeccts in this class - and nor is Manziel. Word is most scouts don't even have a first round grade on Manziel and that Derrick Carr might have put himself into the top 12 picks with his pro-day workout in recent days.
Remember its not college production scouts are that interested in, its more how the skills the players have transfer to the next level. The number of players who have been fantastic college players but have been nothing at the next level is a long one. While Bridgewater is a better prospect than Manziel, both players have limitations compared to someone like a Blake Bortles, who while not the finished product has prototypical size for the position and can make all the throws required to succeed in the NFL.
Interesting to also hear Odel Beckham has some issues that could drop him out of first day contention - apparently not the hardest trainer in the world - shows you in this outstanding WR class you really have to tick every box apart from having all the physical requirements for the position.
What limits does Bridgewater have that Brotles does not? He's bigger physically. So? The question is can Brotles be taught how to run a pro style offense making all of the checks and progressions that are necessary in an NFL style offense. Bridgewater has done that for 2+ years in a pro style WCO. Bridgewater already does most everything an NFL QB does from a mental standpoint already, and it never went out the window when he stepped on the big stage. His arm is plenty strong enough and his mechanics are already better than Brotles. Brotles may have a stronger arm, but he doesn't get as much as he can out of that arm due to inconsistent mechanics.
Rating Carr ahead of Bridgewater or Manziel is a mistake. Carr is extremely inefficient passing beyond 10 yards. As a physical talent, Carr is very good - athletic, strong arm, quick release. But he's terrible under pressure, and his instincts and football IQ are poor. You're not paying these guys to look good in shorts. It's true that there are plenty of players with great college production who have failed in the NFL. But how many QB's are great in the NFL after being just OK in college? Bridgewater and Manziel had the best seasons of any of the players with the physical tools necessary to compete at the next level - Carr and Bortles aren't close in that regard. Bortles has some things to like - no doubt - but he's also more of a projection than I'd be willing to make in the top 5 and probably top 10. Carr is a much bigger projection. In my experience, pocket presence and instincts are something you have, or you don't - rather than something to be developed. Carr doesn't have either.
Carr had an exceptional pro day, probably the best of all the QB prospects. Obviously pro days are just that, and not the be all and end all of what a prospect can be - but he showed he can make every throw required and has excellent deep ball accuracy. Yes, he does have issues under pressure, but no QB prospect is near perfect in this class. Bridgewater on the other hand had a terrible pro day, and if you can't perform under those conditions, where every throw is scripted and its the easiest part of the draft process for a QB, then when can you perform? Yes he's a great college competitor but so are many who never even get near an NFL roster. Remember Bridgewater chose not to throw at the Combine, another knock on him, so his pro day was his only chance to perform for scouts. Bortles has embraced the entire draft process and has taken every chance given to him to throw the ball in front of scouts - he has nothing to hide. If Bridgewater or Manziel were the best QB prospects in this class why wouldn't they take the opportunity to display that fact by throwing at the Combine? I'm not saying that Bridgewater won't succeed in the NFL but most scouts think that Bortles and Carr are just better prospects right now.
Manziel likely just wont make it at the next level - he has poor mechanics and will get cut to pieces if he attempts to make the plays he has been making in college - he's not even a first round prospect and would be a massive reach there. I pity the fans of the team that takes him in the top 15 picks of the draft, but if he performs well under the scripted conditions of his pro day some mug team will buy the hype and draft him there. If he has a quarter of the NFL career of Vince Young I for one will be extremely surprised.
How did Andrew Luck look throwing at the Combine? Only the network people complain about QB's skipping the passing portion of the combine. During games - when it matters - Carr and Bortles were the least accurate QB's from 11-20 yards (64.29% compared to Bridgewater's 68.49% and Manziel's 70.51%). On passes over 20 yards, Bridgewater falters at 50.82%, and Bortles is 2nd best at 54.76%. Carr, though, is again the worst at 44.23% - compared with Manziel's 55.84%. You have fun with your shots in the dark. I'll take the guys who can actually play the QB position.
bortles and derek carr are get your head coach and gm fired qbs...
You make fair points but the difference between college and the NFL is a gaping chasm, as I alluded to before there are exceptional college QBs who just aren't 3rd string NFL caliber. Exceptional college production does not mean the player will be exceptional in the NFL. How much of that 70 odd % of Manziel came from completions outside the pocket? How much of that 55% were wild tosses for Mike Evans to drag down? These are things NFL scouting departments will be looking closely at and as has been reported in the media many of them do not have a first round grade on Johnny Football.
Bridgewater is a very solid prospect, but you can't teach size (and remember, people like Rusell Wilson and Drew Brees are exceptions that prove the rule - size matters at the QB position) - which Bortles has - Bridgewater needed to tick every box in the run up to the draft to solidify himself as a top 10 pick, but has fallen at a few hurdles so don't be surprised if he falls on draft day in what many are calling one of the deepest drafts in history.
College completion rates just don't mean anything at the next level, because at the next level you aren't playing against college level talent - that's the reason why players who have been some of the best players in college history, like Tim Tebow, are now out of the game, and the reason why most scouts project a Bortles or a Carr as much better prospects for the NFL - the qualities they have simply project to greater NFL success compared to a Manziel, awesome as he was in his college career.
I'm assuming Colt Lyerla is off your board? He's got some problems..but I would definitely be digging into him with an interview, coaches, etc. Pure football standpoint I think he's better than Ebron personally. We're talking about a kid who may go undrafted and has top 20 talent all day.
I'd risk it
No, Tim Tebow is out of football because he wasn't a very good QB that could only run one type of offense. It had nothing to do with his completion percentage. Just watch Bridgewater's ball placement. Ignore his 70+% completion rate. Just LOOK at his elite ball placement and accuracy.
When most people talk about Wilson and Bree's "size" they're almost always referring to their height. Both are under 6 feet tall. Bridgewater was a legit 6'2" at the combine and weighed in at 214 lbs which was under the 220 lbs he played at while here in Louisville. Sure his frame is slight but the kid is still just 21 years old. The only injury he ever had in college was due to an illegal horse collar tackle in the UConn game his sophomore year and that was a broken non-throwing hand and a badly sprained ankle. He came in the next game against Rutgers on those injuries and lead the team to victory. He then went to the Sugar Bowl, got popped in the mouth by Jon Bostic, got up, and on the next play (3rd and 15) threw an 18 yard strike into a mailbox across the middle for first down.
Sure you can't teach "size" but you also can't teach toughness. Bridgewater's size is just fine.
I can understand if you don't think Bridgewater is an elite prospect, everyone has their own opinion. But at least base your opinion on something credible.
The way bridgewater has been treated by fans, bloggers, and media types, is IMO the craziest thing I've seem in this hears draft.
Dude is either not talked about at all, or he's talked about like he's garbage. It's ridiculous, and makes no sense. It's like being a good kid, a ridicukously hard worker, with not many weaknesses, and clearly being one of the best qbs last season, is hurting him. Media talks about every qb, But him.
To reiterate, I don't think Bridgewater is a bad prospect, he's certainly not "garbage" and when I talk about his size I'm merely just comparing him to a Bortles who is 3 inches taller. If Bortles does indeed go higher in the draft as Bridgewater, as looks likely, there will be reasons why.
Surprised no one on this board has even referenced Manziel's Pro Day.
I don't think there's much to say about his pro day. If you were an NFL General Manager, would the pro day really change your mind one way or another? If I have serious concerns about how well he will hold up in the NFL (mentally and physically), a nice showing at his pro day doesn't convince me to draft him. If I think he's just got whatever that X-Factor is that makes some guys great, it doesn't matter how bad he looked at his pro day, I'd still draft him. If I have both the serious concerns and the expectation that he's got that X-Factor... then it depends on who's on the board and how badly I need a starting QB, now doesn't it?
I think what we're seeing right now is rooted in two things:
1. Johnny Football is a guy you either love to love, or love to hate.
2. Bridgewater was the consensus media #1 pick for so long that they got tired of him.
I think that Teddy Bridgewater will be the #1 pick in the draft and we're just overthinking things. Kind of like in 2012 when you just knew Andrew Luck was going to be first overall, because there's no way the Colts would be that stupid, right? And then we got all the talk about Griffin and even the rumors that Griffin could go #1 overall. Yeah, right.
Tony Pauline @TonyPauline 16 hrs
@Hummer53 its inside and they're blaring music as he workouts....sadly they are not playing Led Zeppelin...5th rounder on my board now..
As a lover of jazz, blues, and rock from the 20s to present day, Led Zeppelin is one of the most overrated, worthless bands of all time. Talent show, dungeons and dragons bull ****. If he had said the Stones or Velvet Underground, I might have given that a half-chuckle.
For me, the Pro Day didn't do much. I've been saying that his arm is more than good enough and that he has the best down-field accuracy of any QB in this class - and that he has elite intangibles. But there have been many posts that question these very things - along with his general ability as a passer. And when comparing his Pro Day to Bridgewater's, I do think it should factor in to some extent. During the season, Manziel more accurate down the field than Bridgewater. You can say that it's not that important, but Ryan Tannehill. Also, Manziel owned his Pro Day, showed the dynamic leadership qualities (whether or not you like him) that you want to see. Bridgewater either shrank in the moment, had a bad day, or raised some red flags about his throwing ability. They don't do these for nothing. Now, I still like Bridgewater an awful lot, but for most people, it should make them reconsider some things. You can't teach a guy to be a star. And for those on the board that have been consistent in their preference for Tannehill over Manziel, it should change a hell of a lot.
Considering what Bridgewater has done in the big games while here at Louisville makes be believe it was a bad day. They guy has shown up and shown up in all the big games we've had over past 3 years. You don't beat a good Rutgers defense on a bad wheel and a bad wrist on primetime without being a straight up baller. From his first real game at UK in a hostile enviornment his freshman year to the bowl game against Miami, the kid has been there every single time he's been called.
Agree about Led Zep, TBH. As for Manziel's deep ball, Pauline has it right when he says they "float".......effectively he doesn't have a deep ball that will work in the NFL, let alone facing some of the conditions he will when playing in December. Again, comes down to having a skillset for College ball but not one for the next level.
i'm not a bang the table for manziel guy but those deep balls float alright...drop in like as if on a pillow in stride and out in front...hard to criticize his vertical placement and accuracy imo...
on a different note bridgewater goes thru his progressions much better than manziel and he will stand in the pocket...reads the field better to...manziels more of a playmaker outside the traditional pocket...and he will bolt a clean pocket when he just doesnt need to...
there's no tannehill level guy in this class...closest thing is bridgewater
At this stage, Bridgewater definitely goes through his progressions better, but when you look at the progression from 2012 to 2013, I think he's on the track for success in that department. Manziel also sees the field better than just about anyone (at any level) when the play breaks down.
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That's really cute.
You do realize that UCF uses a pro-style offense, right? Their coaching staff has a lot of ties to the NFL and Bortles also has a higher ceiling than Bridgewater does. Bortles has been developed in a pro offense since he got to UCF and also made drastic improvements because of that development.
Props for putting Murray in your top 5 QBs. As a Bulldogs fan I think I overcompensate for my bias. There's a lot to like with Murray. The only thing that really concerns me with him is his ability to make the right throw against zone coverage. There are times that it seems like he either thinks he can beat the underneath coverage or he doesn't see it.
Also glad to see that you have Marqise in the top 3. Seems like everyone is sleeping on him.
They're different players with different circumstances, but Alshon Jeffery saw a similar dip in production and stock between his Sophomore and Junior season - only Jeffery was a much riskier prospect, because he got fat.
Omar Kelly (who I realise isn't the most popular figure on this forum) and Tony Pauline discuss Manziel: