Trevor Siemian's "Gift"

[<O>]

Trevor Siemian's passer rating this past Sunday was 30.5.

Between 2004 and 2016, 3,328 regular season games were played in the NFL.

221 of them (6.6%) involved a passer rating of 33 or less by one of the two teams involved. This is a fairly rare event in the league.

19 of those 221 games in which a team had a QB with a passer rating of 33 or less resulted in a win. 202 of the 221 games resulted in losses.

In other words, if a team has a QB with a passer rating of 33 or less in a game, it has a 0.6% chance of winning that game. Six wins out of a thousand tries, in games of that nature.

In the 19 wins by teams with passer ratings of 33 or lower, the opponents' passer ratings in those games averaged 54. The average margin of victory by those 19 teams was 7.5 points.

In the 202 losses by teams with passer ratings of 33 or lower, the opponents' passer ratings in those games averaged 88.7, which is not significantly different from the league average. The average margin of defeat for those 202 teams was 19.8 points, which is an uncommon margin of defeat in the league.

45 of those losses (22.3%, or more than 1 in every 5 games) were by 26 points or more, as in the Broncos loss by 26 to the Dolphins Sunday.

In other words, a team stands to win a game -- and not by much -- with a passer rating of 33 or less only when the opposing team's passer rating isn't much higher, whereas it's very likely to lose a game -- by a whole lot -- when the opposing team has only an average passer rating.

Jay Cutler's passer rating this past Sunday for example was 76.7, which is significantly below the league average.

Now, let's consider whether the Dolphins' pass defense was responsible for Siemian's performance.

Prior to the Denver game the Dolphins' pass defense surrendered an opponents' passer rating of 105.7, one of the worst figures of its kind in the league in 2017. In no single game in 2017 had it surrendered an opponent's passer rating below the mid-80s, roughly the league average.

Siemian on the other hand had an overall 2017 passer rating in the mid-70s coming into the game, significantly below the league average, and had posted passer ratings in previous games of 43.5 and 58.2.

The Dolphins beat the Broncos 35-9, largely because of Trevor Siemian's "gift" of an extremely poor game, in my opinion.

 

[hoops]

I had seen trevor simien multiple times this year prior to our game and while he wasn't good due mostly to bailing out on throws to avoid contact more than anything else that was by far the worst I've ever seen him sunday

 

[TheWozz]

Broncos have a lot of issues, starting at QB. However, we outplayed them in every phase of the game. You could also point out that subpar QB play has been the biggest factor in a couple of our losses too, mind you. The QB gets too much credit for wins and too much blame for losses, but they are still the most important player on the field.

 

[Jerrysanders]

Broncos have a lot of issues, starting at QB. However, we outplayed them in every phase of the game. You could also point out that subpar QB play has been the biggest factor in a couple of our losses too, mind you. The QB gets too much credit for wins and too much blame for losses, but they are still the most important player on the field.

The QB play has been a huge factor in our losses, Siemian definitely hasn't gotten to much blame, he definitely was the biggest factor in that loss.

 

[montequi]

John Elway is a genius

 

[TheWozz]

The QB play has been a huge factor in our losses, Siemian definitely hasn't gotten to much blame, he definitely was the biggest factor in that loss.

Agreed on Simian. My point was more generic. Im in Denver... Broncos will be pursuing QB like gangbustas...Simian is back up quality but he is the best on the roster with Osweiler and Lynch. Lynch may develop but no way do they pin their hopes on him at this point...

 

[Spiff]

221 of them (6.6%) involved a passer rating of 33 or less by one of the two teams involved. This is a fairly rare event in the league.

If I understand these numbers (6.6%), it means two QBs out of 32 have this kind of game every week. So if it’s a week with 16 games, 2 QBs are that bad. Correct?

 

[claytonduper]

I believe the field position had a huge effect on Siemians performance. Starting deep in your territory most of the game is hard for most QB's except the likes of Brady, Brees and Rodgers.

 

[<O>]

If I understand these numbers (6.6%), it means two QBs out of 32 have this kind of game every week. So if it’s a week with 16 games, 2 QBs are that bad. Correct?

221 games total, between 2004 and 2016, in the 3,328 total games during that period. So there are 17 games per season, on average, in which a QB has a game with a passer rating of 33 or less.

So there is about one QB per week, on average, who has a game that poor. The 31 other QBs don't, and the 31 other QBs are far more likely to have games that fall within the average range in the league (roughly 80 to 90), which is obviously much higher than 33 or lower, and give their teams a far better chance of winning.

The more decisive information in my opinion, however, is a team's likelihood of winning when it's the recipient of QB play that poor. A team wins a mere six games out of a thousand under those conditions, and it almost always wins only when the opposing team has a performance from its QB that's either worse, or not much better.

For example, there were only five games of the 3,328 played between 2004 and 2016 that involved a win for a team with a passer rating of 33 or less, coupled with an opposing passer rating in the range in which Jay Cutler played Sunday (67 to 87) or higher.

The Broncos had a mere 0.15% chance of winning that game. You'd have to play two thousand games under those conditions for a team like the Broncos were Sunday to win three of them. The other 1,997 games of the two thousand would be losses.

 

[.....]

So, a lot of math for you to say that you think the team sucks?

 

[<O>]

So, a lot of math for you to say that you think the team sucks?

What I think is that I don't feel any better about the Dolphins this week than I did last week, despite their 35-9 victory in the interim.

The "math" just supports that view.

 

[sunworshipper]

If I understand these numbers (6.6%), it means two QBs out of 32 have this kind of game every week. So if it’s a week with 16 games, 2 QBs are that bad. Correct?

No, 6.6% of 16 games is about 1 game with one terrible QB.

 

[Finland]

John Elway is a genius

You want to bang on Elway?

 

[raving]

This version of the Dolphins looks as bad as Cam Cameron's.

I appreciate you putting these facts up here because it confirmed my experience in watching that dumpster trash team called the Miami Dolphins win big last Sunday.

My oldest son asked me if I watched the Dolphins on Sunday - I said I watched less then 1/2 with barely on eye on the game - but what I did see was WEIRD!

The Dolphins were AWFUL! We are such a joke. We cannot convert a second and inches. We are nightmare. The amount of stupid penalties, mistakes, miscues, - the lack of a spark - this team is a DISASTER!

 

[NBP81]

If we had won the game with Siemians posting a 101 rating, would you have started a thread saying the Fins pass D sucks and they should have lost the game? Still, thats a shitload of stats just to state that a 30- rating from a QB usually loses the game... I mean... No ****!