Trevor Siemian's "Gift"

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by <O>, Dec 6, 2017.

  1. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

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    Trevor Siemian's passer rating this past Sunday was 30.5.

    Between 2004 and 2016, 3,328 regular season games were played in the NFL.

    221 of them (6.6%) involved a passer rating of 33 or less by one of the two teams involved. This is a fairly rare event in the league.

    19 of those 221 games in which a team had a QB with a passer rating of 33 or less resulted in a win. 202 of the 221 games resulted in losses.

    In other words, if a team has a QB with a passer rating of 33 or less in a game, it has a 0.6% chance of winning that game. Six wins out of a thousand tries, in games of that nature.

    In the 19 wins by teams with passer ratings of 33 or lower, the opponents' passer ratings in those games averaged 54. The average margin of victory by those 19 teams was 7.5 points.

    In the 202 losses by teams with passer ratings of 33 or lower, the opponents' passer ratings in those games averaged 88.7, which is not significantly different from the league average. The average margin of defeat for those 202 teams was 19.8 points, which is an uncommon margin of defeat in the league.

    45 of those losses (22.3%, or more than 1 in every 5 games) were by 26 points or more, as in the Broncos loss by 26 to the Dolphins Sunday.

    In other words, a team stands to win a game -- and not by much -- with a passer rating of 33 or less only when the opposing team's passer rating isn't much higher, whereas it's very likely to lose a game -- by a whole lot -- when the opposing team has only an average passer rating.

    Jay Cutler's passer rating this past Sunday for example was 76.7, which is significantly below the league average.

    Now, let's consider whether the Dolphins' pass defense was responsible for Siemian's performance.

    Prior to the Denver game the Dolphins' pass defense surrendered an opponents' passer rating of 105.7, one of the worst figures of its kind in the league in 2017. In no single game in 2017 had it surrendered an opponent's passer rating below the mid-80s, roughly the league average.

    Siemian on the other hand had an overall 2017 passer rating in the mid-70s coming into the game, significantly below the league average, and had posted passer ratings in previous games of 43.5 and 58.2.

    The Dolphins beat the Broncos 35-9, largely because of Trevor Siemian's "gift" of an extremely poor game, in my opinion.
     
  2. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    I had seen trevor simien multiple times this year prior to our game and while he wasn't good due mostly to bailing out on throws to avoid contact more than anything else that was by far the worst I've ever seen him sunday
     
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2017
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  3. TheWozz

    TheWozz FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Broncos have a lot of issues, starting at QB. However, we outplayed them in every phase of the game. You could also point out that subpar QB play has been the biggest factor in a couple of our losses too, mind you. The QB gets too much credit for wins and too much blame for losses, but they are still the most important player on the field.
     
  4. Jerrysanders

    Jerrysanders A True Fan

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    The QB play has been a huge factor in our losses, Siemian definitely hasn't gotten to much blame, he definitely was the biggest factor in that loss.
     
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  5. montequi

    montequi Middle Timer

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    John Elway is a genius :p
     
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  6. TheWozz

    TheWozz FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Agreed on Simian. My point was more generic. Im in Denver... Broncos will be pursuing QB like gangbustas...Simian is back up quality but he is the best on the roster with Osweiler and Lynch. Lynch may develop but no way do they pin their hopes on him at this point...
     
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  7. Spiff

    Spiff Starter Finheaven VIP

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    If I understand these numbers (6.6%), it means two QBs out of 32 have this kind of game every week. So if it’s a week with 16 games, 2 QBs are that bad. Correct?
     
  8. claytonduper

    claytonduper Starter

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    I believe the field position had a huge effect on Siemians performance. Starting deep in your territory most of the game is hard for most QB's except the likes of Brady, Brees and Rodgers.
     
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  9. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

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    221 games total, between 2004 and 2016, in the 3,328 total games during that period. So there are 17 games per season, on average, in which a QB has a game with a passer rating of 33 or less.

    So there is about one QB per week, on average, who has a game that poor. The 31 other QBs don't, and the 31 other QBs are far more likely to have games that fall within the average range in the league (roughly 80 to 90), which is obviously much higher than 33 or lower, and give their teams a far better chance of winning.

    The more decisive information in my opinion, however, is a team's likelihood of winning when it's the recipient of QB play that poor. A team wins a mere six games out of a thousand under those conditions, and it almost always wins only when the opposing team has a performance from its QB that's either worse, or not much better.

    For example, there were only five games of the 3,328 played between 2004 and 2016 that involved a win for a team with a passer rating of 33 or less, coupled with an opposing passer rating in the range in which Jay Cutler played Sunday (67 to 87) or higher.

    The Broncos had a mere 0.15% chance of winning that game. You'd have to play two thousand games under those conditions for a team like the Broncos were Sunday to win three of them. The other 1,997 games of the two thousand would be losses.
     
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2017
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  10. Ren

    Ren Rookie

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    So, a lot of math for you to say that you think the team sucks?
     
  11. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

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    What I think is that I don't feel any better about the Dolphins this week than I did last week, despite their 35-9 victory in the interim.

    The "math" just supports that view.
     
  12. sunworshipper

    sunworshipper FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    No, 6.6% of 16 games is about 1 game with one terrible QB.
     
  13. Finland

    Finland Pro Bowler

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    You want to bang on Elway?
     
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  14. raving

    raving Starter

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    This version of the Dolphins looks as bad as Cam Cameron's.

    I appreciate you putting these facts up here because it confirmed my experience in watching that dumpster trash team called the Miami Dolphins win big last Sunday.

    My oldest son asked me if I watched the Dolphins on Sunday - I said I watched less then 1/2 with barely on eye on the game - but what I did see was WEIRD!

    The Dolphins were AWFUL! We are such a joke. We cannot convert a second and inches. We are nightmare. The amount of stupid penalties, mistakes, miscues, - the lack of a spark - this team is a DISASTER!
     
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  15. NBP81

    NBP81 Yippi ka yay mother******! Finheaven VIP Donator

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    If we had won the game with Siemians posting a 101 rating, would you have started a thread saying the Fins pass D sucks and they should have lost the game? Still, thats a ****load of stats just to state that a 30- rating from a QB usually loses the game... I mean... No ****!
     
  16. VBCheeseGrater

    VBCheeseGrater Not Quite A Shredder Finheaven VIP

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    Id respond with some comment about being burned by lousy QBs before, but that would imply i actually watched the game to evaluate what happened. These days the team is worth periodic stat tracker glances at best. No time for it, i've got paint drying to watch over, for petes sake.
     
  17. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

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    And by nearly 20 points on average, and by 26 points or more (like Sunday) in more than one of every five such games.

    In other words, a 35-9 win isn't impressive under those circumstances, like it might be normally. Anything non-lopsided would've been a disappointment.
     
  18. PhinsAAA

    PhinsAAA Well-Known Member

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    When the QB on the other team has a horrible game his team more often than not loses??? Earth shattering wisdom there guy
     
  19. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

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    The (unconventional) wisdom consists of the finding that a 35-9 victory doesn't necessarily indicate that the winning team played all that well.

    Rather, it takes an extremely poor performance by but one player on the opposing team to make a victory that large be 1) expected, and 2) caused almost exclusively by him.
     
  20. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

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    Here's a corollary:

    Between 2004 and 2016, there were 302 games in which a team won by between 23 and 29 points (the Dolphins won by 26 Sunday).

    240 of those games (79%) involved the losing team's passer rating's being at least 10 points higher than Trevor Siemian's was Sunday.

    81 of them (27%) involved a losing team's passer rating that was in the range in which Jay Cutler played on Sunday or higher (70+).

    So, obviously it doesn't require a horrendous game by an opposing quarterback to win by 26.

    In at least one in four such games, the opposing quarterback plays far better than Siemian did Sunday, meaning that those wins by 26 can be far more safely attributed to the winning team's very good performance, and not to the losing team's ineptitude.

    In other words, the Dolphins had a 26-point win Sunday that, by its nature, should be attributed to the losing team, and not to the winning team.
     
  21. FinfanInBuffalo

    FinfanInBuffalo Perennial All-Pro Finheaven VIP Donator

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    News flash. A win against a 3-8 record on a 7 game losing streak isn't necessarily impressive.

    I still disagree with your premise that the Dolphins D didn't have much to do with Siemian's performance. They harassed him all day. You also failed to mention that a few bogus calls kept still more points off the board. The point differential could have been 40.
     
  22. madmic21

    madmic21 A True Fan

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    [QUOTE="<O>,

    221 of them (6.6%) involved a passer rating of 33 or less by one of the two teams involved. This is a fairly rare event in the league.

    19 of those 221 games in which a team had a QB with a passer rating of 33 or less resulted in a win. 202 of the 221 games resulted in losses.

    In other words, if a team has a QB with a passer rating of 33 or less in a game, it has a 0.6% chance of winning that game. Six wins out of a thousand tries, in games of that nature.

    [/QUOTE]
    Confused how 19 of 221 games equates to 6 in a thousand when 19 were won out of 221?
     
  23. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

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    It didn't have to go the way it did, however.

    Consider that the 26-point win could've involved a passer rating of 110 by Jay Cutler, with a passer rating of 65 by Siemian. The win would've then been much more safely attributable to the Dolphins good play, and not to Siemian's extreme ineptitude.

    That would've been far more impressive, and would've been far more consistent with what good teams usually do to teams like the Broncos. An argument could be made, then, that something better than usual should be expected from the Dolphins this week against New England.


    That's obviously more likely to happen when a team is down big on the scoreboard and the opposing team knows it has to pass.
     
  24. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

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    19 games with a passer rating of 33 or less were also won out of the 3,328 played between 2004 and 2016.
     
  25. SwissPhins

    SwissPhins FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I absolutely disagree on that one. A QB doesn't have to play bad, that he gets a bad rating. There can be good pressure by the front 7 so he doesn't have the time to complete his passes. There can be great coverage on the defense backs, so the QB doesn't find his open receivers. There can be great interceptions play on otherwise good passes by a QB. Starting every drive in your own 10 yards line because of great punts by the opposing team, etc. So in my opinion there can be many different reasons why a passer rating is that low.

    I'm definitely not saying Siemian played a good game, but I can't agree on saying that a QB has to have a bad game for having a low rating and being exclusively responsible for a loss. There is a saying over here in Switzerland that we use in Soccer: "You only play as good as your opponent lets you to". So in my opinion the Dolphins played a good game in all three phases of the game against a bad Broncos team. But we didn't let them to have a better game so the win was deserved.

    And after all I don't get the sense of the thread by putting up a thread with lot of numbers to just say that our team sucks after just seeing a cool game (probably every Dolphin Fan had a lot of fun watching this game) with 2 safeties, 3 interceptions, a pick six, a recovered on-side kick and a win by 26 points. But that's just my opinion. Looking forward for the Patriots game. Even though it will be hard, i would love to see us beating the sh*t out of this team and Tom Brady!
     
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  26. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

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    I would agree with that if Sieman's passer rating had been somewhere between 55 and 65, and against a team with one of the league's best pass defenses. That would imply that he'd had a poor game caused primarily by the strength of the opposing defense, in that it would fall at the lower end of his personal range of passer ratings, in association with an opposing team that had an established track record in defending against opposing QBs in that manner.

    What we saw on Sunday, rather, was a passer rating well below the lower end of Siemian's personal range, against a pass defense that had done nothing anywhere near that to any QB it had played, no matter how bad, in the previous 11 games on the season. The odds are clearly with Siemian in that instance, in my opinion.


    It was a cool game, yes. Does it indicate the team turned a corner in 2017? No. That's the point.

    Some of us here want to feel good about the team whenever we can. I understand that. I would rather know what to expect and know how hopeful I should be, personally. Not everyone has to be that way, however.
     
  27. PhinsAAA

    PhinsAAA Well-Known Member

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    So to sum up this thread..... How dare anyone enjoy a win during an otherwise terrible season!!!! Not on my watch- <O>
     
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  28. russianbear

    russianbear FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Another stat: 99% of fans watching a blowout victory by their team enjoyed it

    I don't think anyone puts much significance to the win, but the fans love seeing it.

    This is an advanced statistical analysis that doesn't really provide much insight. We know their QB sucked, we all saw it. We know his extraordinary sucking is what led to that win more than anything else. Generally I enjoy obscure statistical analysis, but here it seems more purposed to serve as a wet blanket thread during a season that doesn't need it. We've got real issues to deal with beyond this fictitious false hope you imply provided by a blowout win.
     
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  29. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

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    What purpose it serves for me personally is the objective grounds for determining whether I should have any more hope for the remaining four games than I did prior to the Denver game.

    What purpose it appears to serve for you says more about you than it does about me.

    When the team truly turns a corner, I'll post a thread with similarly objective information that details why I believe they have, and perhaps that one will be more popular. :)
     
  30. russianbear

    russianbear FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Someone as smart as yourself didn't need objective stats from Denver's game to determine whether or not you should have hope for the next four games, so I challenge your "advertised personal purpose" of the thread as bullshit (pardon my french). Or maybe you did and that's just how you function, statistically driven and intellectually compelled.

    Regardless if that's your wiring I think the act of actually publishing a thread with the thought process is more for attention than anything else. I say that because you know your audience here, and you know the likely reaction. As interesting as it may be to some, it's not to most, for better or worse. This is just my opinion though so feel free to carry forth, and there are plenty of posters here that I'm sure get a kick out of seeing the nuts and bolts of the evaluation. I think you just like going back and forth to play with the masses. I'm not as detail oriented so I get bored quickly. The intricacies of this type of stuff are a little beyond my scope of interest, personally speaking.

    As to your second point, I think it's pretty obvious that it would be.
     
  31. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

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    If you (or anyone else) would like to converse with me in the above manner, about the above topic (i.e., me), please relegate it to a private message, as it's obviously well beyond the topic of the public message board. Thank you. :)
     
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  32. FinfanInBuffalo

    FinfanInBuffalo Perennial All-Pro Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Whole lot of speculation about hypotheticals wrapped into a pretend statistical analysis.
     
  33. FinfanInBuffalo

    FinfanInBuffalo Perennial All-Pro Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Here is a sincere question. Have you ever posted a comment that included actual observation of play on the field? I'm serious, you created a thread about how the opposing QB "gifted" a win to the Dolphins without a single comment on the game itself. Not one analysis of any of the "gift" plays. The pick-6 for instance. Was it a bad throw? Bad read? Good play by the DB? Pressure? No pressure? Bad down and distance? Desperate time in the game?
     
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  34. Dolphins512

    Dolphins512 My Friends Call Me Bob Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Hmmmm....reminds me of another poster who used to be on this site.....
     
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  35. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    really pulled the wool over my eyes until the qb talk started

    I will now take my cersei walk of shame
     
  36. HarryBagpipe

    HarryBagpipe Archibald Meatpants Super Donator

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    Havent been around much but I'm guessing shouright made an alt account?
     
  37. FinfanInBuffalo

    FinfanInBuffalo Perennial All-Pro Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Given the results of the Broncos-Jets and Dolphins-Patriots, this thread looks even more ridiculous than it already did.
     
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