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Two Game Improvement ... What If?

Digital

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So we all know how last season went. Gase predicted that it would take about 5 games to get the offensive system, and he said he has done it now several times and that's how long it took each time. Well, we were 1-4 over those first 5 games, and then went 9-2 over the remaining 11 games. And, that was while enduring a season full of unbelievable injuries.

Here's the starters that were injured last year: Reshad Jones, IAQ, Byron Maxwell, Xavien Howard (yep, the ENTIRE secondary was injured at various points of the season and our playoff game in Pittsburgh was a joke because of it), Koa Misi, Jelani Jenkins (yep, only 1 starting LB for most of the season, and even he was injured some), Kiko Alonso, Mari0 Williams (well, nominally he was a starter), Earl Mitchell, Jason Jones, Cam Wake (yes, that's 3 DL injured much of the season with 2 injured most of the season), Branden Albert, Laremey Tunsil, Mike Pouncey, Ju'Wuan James (yep, every OL was injured at some point last year, with Pouncey missing almost the entire season and Albert missing significant time, plus injuries to subs Steen, Young, and Urbik ... and I'm not even going to count Dallas Thomas, Billy Turner or Jamil Douglas), Jordan Cameron (he missed so many games we almost forgot about him!), DeVante Parker, and Ryan Tannehill.

Of the 22 starters on offense and defense, we had 17 of them miss games. We lost most of the season from 8 of them (Reshad Jones, Xavien Howard, Koa Misi, Jelani Jones, Earl Mitchell, Mari0 Williams, Jordan Cameron and Mike Pouncey).

That's a lot of injuries. The team re-built with more durable players, jettisoning Jelani Jones, Earl Mitchell, Mari0 Williams and Jordan Cameron. We relegated Misi to backup status by adding Timmons and McMillan. So, of the 8 who missed most of last year, we are only banking on a recovery from 3 guys, Reshad Jones who has been durable over his career, Xavien Howard, who was durable in college, and Mike Pouncey, who is being handled very gingerly in hopes of getting more games out of him. But even those 3 positions have been solidified as we brought in 2 safeties that will compete for starting roles (Nate Allen and TJ McDonald) to replace IAQ and backup Reshad Jones. We drafted a DE (Charles Harris) and traded for a veteran (William Hayes) to improve on the horrible performances of Mari0 Williams and Jason Jones. We drafted two late round DT's (Vincent and Godchaux) to fill the hole left by Mitchell.

The other injured areas were filled as well, with two new starters along the LB unit (Lawrence Timmons and Raekwon McMillan), another CB (Cordrea Tankersley), and two OL in draftee Isaac Asiata and free agent acquisition Ted Larsen. We buttressed our TE position with a former Gase guy in Julius Thomas to be a seam threat and a former Dolphin in Anthony Fasano to block.

Just looking at the injury situation, the Dolphins' roster should be significantly improved. Our Depth Chart should look a lot better.

Given the familiarity with the systems in year 2, we look to be a better football team. Looking at the offense's production after the 5 game adjustment period, we look much improved. Looking at Tannehill's performance during that time, he looked tremendously improved. Our defense couldn't have been more devastated by injuries ... and it looks much improved.

Looking at what we endured last year and what we appear to have on the roster this year ... it wouldn't be a surprise for an objective observer to say we're better.

How much better?

If I were just to look at these things, I'd estimate 2 games better.

But, we cannot look at this in a vacuum. The reality is that we won a lot of close games last year. While that is one mark of a good team, it's also something that tends to even out over time. And, our schedule this year is a tough one as we play the best division in the AFC, the AFC West. So, there is definitely room for us to be a better football team overall and have a worse record.

But what if we make good on this potential?

What if we stay healthy?

What if we did make a 2 game improvement?

What if we went 12-4? Exactly 2 games better than our 10-6 record ... and a record we surely would have had last year had we adjusted to Gase's offense earlier.

Well, there were only TWO teams better than 12-4 last year, they were the 14-2 New England Patriots and the 13-3 Dallas Cowboys.

Obviously, we've been beaten down for over a decade in Miami. We're used to hoping for the best and watching the worst. We're used to good players not producing good teams. We're used to having our hopes dashed. Everyone lives with a fear of impending doom even as the Dolphins start winning.

But that was all before Adam Gase. Things are changing here. So, why not dare to dream?

What if we were to make a 2 game improvement?
 
I believe that with the team in year 2 of this offense and given the injuries played a huge part in our potential last season we can improve this year and we have addressed multiple areas to ensure depth and an improvement in talent,,,

We should, at the very least match 10-6...I can see 11-5...coaching and building our team the right way finally! The x's and o's are uber important but this team is being built to compete and win...love the direction we are headed
 
Digital, man, I appreciate the thought you put into your posts. I enjoy reading them and have for years! Things are definitely heading in the right direction....I don't think anybody will dispute that. 12-4 would be fantastic and I think we'll get there in the next couple years, but I'm just not sure it's going to be this year. I know last year's schedule looked tough when it came out and when it was all said and done, it wasn't. We can only hope we have the same luck with this years schedule. Pats will be tough twice, Raiders are young but they are good right now, Falcons there will be a test for our young D trying to contain that offense. Ravens have our number and playing there will be a tough task. I honestly think everybody else is easily beatable, but those games stick out to me as our toughest. That being said, we will be a better football team, but I'm predicting another 10-6 campaign.
 
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Man I get optimistic after your posts lately Digital. We really got decimated by injuries last year. I think that the core of the team who are returning should all take a step forward just due to being the same system and having some continuity. I hope to see us be more in control of games and not have so many nail biters. That will be a big move in the right direction, we can't deny we had a lot of close games and a good bit of luck to win some. Getting almost everyone healthy should be huge. Howard can be really good... To think about all of the 'negatives' of him coming out and he honed his craft and it showed on the field. I hope Tank can do that too. We need to see some health and average/above average play from the OL for me to be happy. We just can't let Tannehill keep getting hit and Ajayi doing it all himself. The sky is up for us no doubt, but we aren't quite there yet. If we go 9-7 and miss the playoffs, it would hurt but I wouldn't be PISSED. A reasonable goal is to hope for the 5 / 6 seed
 
Here's another interesting take on the Dolphins' win total possibilities.



DBM-NL6UAAAGRMZ.jpg
 
Seeing that 8 of last season's wins came against the Bills 2, Jets, 2, Browns, Rams, Cardinals and 49ers, I would be verry happy if Miami goes 9-7 or 10-6 this season.
 
Here's another interesting take on the Dolphins' win total possibilities.



DBM-NL6UAAAGRMZ.jpg


Heh, I was gonna post something about how I will feel like we are finally "one of the top teams" in the league when we can stop having nail biter games and winning with 'lucky' plays- which we had our fair share of. Once we can go into games and just feel good about it, not having to constantly worry. Less close games is what we need... we need to not be part of that regression trend and start to trend upward instead
 
Wow, this may be the wine talking, but this was the best damn post I've ever read! Thanks Digital, amazing perspective!
 
I dig it. If one can't be optimistic about this season, then this can be the season that breaks the doomsday stranglehold this team has cast over many fans through the years. As Digital listed, lots of legit reasons this team should play better on both sides of ball.

Of course, if things go south, which is always possible, then tighten up that noose.....
 
Look, it's very feasible. 12-4 is still losing 25% of your games. With some injury luck for once and a much improved 3rd down conversion rate, it's not beyond imagining.

But our record last year was deceiving. We beat up on chumps and failed against the better teams, by and large. Even then we only beat the chumps by very slim margins, again by and large. Factor on top the propensity for teams who win a lot of close games to regress the next year, plus our MUCH harder schedule and I think it's beyond argument that improvement in our team plus injury luck will not necessarily deliver improved results next year. It isn't a linear equation. We'll have to be a hell of a lot better and in many different ways for us to hit 12-4. I'm positive we'll be better, but maybe not enough to improve on 10-6. I think Ajayi will be defended better and we'll continue to struggle on 3rd and short plus goalline. On defense, we've a lot of work to do to get new players to gel and our new DC to wrangle a workable scheme and execution of same.

Medium term, the sky is the limit. We're young, deep, talented, professional, fiery, dedicated, intelligent and savvy as a team. And we're well coached and motivated by a rising star HC. But year 2 might be a bit early for another jump in the AFC rankings.
 
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