Why is everyone so surprised?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by lemmiwinks, Nov 7, 2017.

  1. fansinceGWilson

    fansinceGWilson FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Just a technical point . . . TJM will come in with fresh legs and should have no 8th game bumps/bruises.
     
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  2. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

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    It may not be that you have low standards, but rather that you're just unaware of the fact that surrendering an opposing passer rating between 99 and 105 (the Dolphins' is 102) has been associated with a 4-12 record on average in the league since 2004.

    19 teams have finished seasons surrendering opposing passer ratings between 99 and 105 since 2004. Only one of them had a winning record, and that was the 2004 Packers with Brett Favre, which finished 10-6.

    In other words, when an NFL defense plays in this manner, it puts tremendous pressure on the rest of the team to play in such a way as to overcome the ineptitude on defense, and that almost never happens in the league. NFL offenses can almost never overcome a defense that's playing in such a way, and certainly this one isn't about to either.
     
  3. lurking

    lurking FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    It was our linebackers that got exposed, not the safety's. Kiko was abused all night.
     
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  4. JakeemThe Dream

    JakeemThe Dream A True Fan

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    You may have just answered 20 questions in one statement. Tannehill's absence is a MUCH bigger problem than any of us expected.
     
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  5. Namor

    Namor Pro Bowler Finheaven VIP

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    Well,I thought we were going to the SuperBowl this year...
    I think we will go to the SuperBowl every year...
    Yes...I'm insane!!
     
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  6. FSU Truth

    FSU Truth The North Remembers Finheaven VIP

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    It has been a long time coming but he is finally getting some much needed appreciation.
     
  7. lurking

    lurking FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    That's a hard pill for some the swallow.
     
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  8. dolphintodd

    dolphintodd FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I would appreciate Tannehill more if he was not hurt and actually playing...
     
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  9. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

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    I suspect that people didn't expect it to be such a problem because they expected the replacement QB (Cutler) to play much better.

    Just because the replacement QB plays very poorly (YPA of 5.9 for example) doesn't mean Tannehill is suddenly all-world.

    Tannehill's presence takes the offense from the mess it's in now and raises its performance to simply the average level. His presence alone doesn't make the offense like the Saints' or the Eagles', where the QB's performance alone makes the offense one of the best in the league.

    I suspect that in the end this team will finish between 4-12 and 6-10. With Tannehill and all else equal, that likely would've been 8-8.
     
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  10. lemmiwinks

    lemmiwinks New Member

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    On the bright side, if Tanehill didn't get injured, he sure as hell would have behind this line.

    Let's hope that Tannehill's time on the sideline makes him a better QB going forward. Sometimes getting a different perspective of the game can do good for a player. Perhaps he will develop better pocket presence seeing Cutler and Moore getting destroyed.

    I think we still have enough talent on the roster to turn it around next year if we can stay healthy. We need to address this line once and for all and add more depth and competition on the roster.
     
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  11. Lionstone

    Lionstone A True Fan

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    I am not surprised. I am disappointed that we have missed some big opportunities. The overall level of talent has improved this year. The starting LBs play the run well and are around the ball. Timmons has good instincts, and it jumps out when you watch the game. I do struggle to understand why our pass defense is performing so poorly. One possibility is lack of understanding of the situation and poor cues from the sideline. I expect a defensive coordinator to send a play call and a hint with the call such as “watch out for the screen.”

    There is inexperience at the defensive coordinator position, and it is bound to have an effect.
     
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  12. lurking

    lurking FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I never thought or expected him to play better then Tannahill , I said this at the very beginning when he was signed. This guy is atrocious, and always has been. Our QB play is the reason we're 4-4. I can assure you that if Tannehill was playing we'd be 6-2 at worst.
     
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  13. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

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    It's not that anyone expected him to play better than Tannehill (although some may have -- not I for one) -- it's that they likely didn't expect him to play this poorly.

    Also, the pass defense is just as much a reason the team is playing poorly. Based on huge amounts of data from 2004 to 2016, the team would be expected to be 2-6 right now, based on the way it's playing. 4-4 indicates that they've managed to exceed what would be expected, somehow, and no one can really be entirely sure how that's happened.

    If Tannehill were here and he were to play in his typical manner, he alone would help the team win 8 to 10 games himself, if the rest of the team played at average levels.

    But now factor in how poorly the pass defense has played (it's far from average), and you have to side on the expectation of 8 wins, not 10, if Tannehill were present.

    So that explains why I believe the team will finish between 4-12 and 6-10 with Cutler, and why it wouldn't be any better than 8-8 with Tannehill. He'd buy them two more wins -- which is not insignificant -- but the pass defense would keep the team from being any better than that.

    Now consider that the team had someone like Aaron Rodgers, just for argument's sake. A QB like that may have gotten this team from 4-12/6-10 to 10-6. He'd likely get them roughly four more wins, despite the pass defense. Tannehill on the other hand is good for two.

    In other words, Tannehill alone wouldn't take what's going on and magically make it playoff-caliber. It would take one of the league's top three or so QBs to do that.

    Look at what Tom Brady is doing in New England, for example. Their defense is having a very rough year against the run and the pass, similar to the Dolphins' defense against the pass, and Brady and his 106.5 passer rating and 8.1 YPA has the team at 6-2.

    It's very unlikely Tannehill would be playing at that level.
     
    Last edited: Nov 9, 2017
  14. lurking

    lurking FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    The pass defense is being exposed mostly due to the offense not being able to stay on the field. For example more offense of snaps means less defense of snaps. Tannahill was playing at the level you're talking about last year before his injury.
     
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  15. Dajesus

    Dajesus A True Fan

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    If anyone thinks Ryan Tannehill would walk in to this offense this season, and everything would be ok you are insane. This time last year Miami was 4-4, and Ryan had 8tds and 6ints and was sacked 19x. This year we are 4-4 our qbs have thrown 12tds 8ints and sacked 17x. Do simple stats tell the whole story? No. Do I think we would be marginally better with Ryan? Yes. The fact is though we didn't win 9 of 11 game because Ryan was some miracle QB who could make up for, bad oline play, no running game, and questionable defense. Infact when those were true he went 1-4, and everyone in the NFL was calling for him to be benched. It wasn't Ryan that turned 1-4 around. It was a new running game that came to life, it was a miracle KR by Drake, it was a miracle pick 6 by Kiko, it was Jay carrying us in 2 games vs Buffalo, it was Ryan have a complete turn around in the last 4 minutes in LA after being horrible for 56 minutes, it was a lot of people stepping up an over coming, not just better QB play. These things haven't happened this year, sans 1 half in Atlanta and 1 quarter vs NY. Ryan is a middle of the road QB who has a ceiling of a top 12 guy if everything is clicking, but is not Tom Brady, Aarron Rogers, Dan Marino, etc etc who can put a team on his back no matter how his oline is blocking, defense is playing, penalties are being commited, and plays being called by the OC. If you think Ryan is a savior you are just being ignorant to how many aspects of the game this team isn't currently failing at.
     
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  16. tcdrover

    tcdrover Pro Bowler

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    They were 4-4 last year with their starting QB

    they are 4-4 this year with a QB brought in at the last possible minute before preseason games began.

    If the O-line wasn't so inconsistent and if they had the good sense NOT to start Byron Maxwell at the start of the season they probably would have won a couple more games.

    The QB play is not why they are 4-4.

    Regardless they played much better last week, they can play their new big safety now.

    Hopefully the O-line play can be cleaned up
     
  17. lurking

    lurking FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Most of the ignorance comes from people that don't realize that one quarterback was in the system for a year and one was not. So that would give one quarterback an advantage. The funny part about it is, the people who dislike Tannehill are the ones using the comparisons to Brady and Rogers.
     
  18. dirkey

    dirkey FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    You really can't!
     
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  19. Phinatic8u

    Phinatic8u Adam ****ing Gase

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    Bingo. As much as I love Reshad, he’s pretty meh st coverage.

    He’s a playmaker tho.

    This team needs Mincah Fitzpatrick to be a ball hawking roaming S. Play 4-2-5 as our primary defense so TJ, Reshad and a stud FS can always be on the field. Although Maurice Smith looked pretty damn decent last week.
     
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  20. JakeemThe Dream

    JakeemThe Dream A True Fan

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    I don't think he's all world at all lol But having the 12th best passer in the league who has legs and knows the receivers would sure makeup for having the 30th best. We can speculate but last time Tannehill was QB he was 8-5. I'd say there is a huge possibility of being 8-8 but a few plays here and there could make us 10-6 or 6-10. Projecting anything that hasn't happened is tough. I do all the time and it never happens lol It's not only about Cutler's play but also they way the team stopped believing and if I were to make my best educated guess I'd say the Tannehill injury really hurt the confidence other players had going into the season. I could be wrong but I think I remember Tannehill being heard saying this is the best team I've ever had after he tore his ACL. I don't think he's all world (would never say that) but compared to Cutler the difference is going from the 12th to the 30th. That's huge. Imagine Tannehill moving up 6 spots rating wise and the difference it would be. 18 spots is just too much to overcome. If we're speculating, imagine this D with just an average offense like you said. We all just want to win in the end...PHINS UP!!
     
  21. Dajesus

    Dajesus A True Fan

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    Of course a QB in a system for year 2 would have a huge advantage, and even though Jay is now in his 2nd year in this system, it would still be a huge advantage for Ryan as he knows the personal. He has a raport with Kenny, Jarvis, and Devante, and you can't underestimate how valuable this is. That being said Ryan wasn't running this offense last year, and when he did he went 1-4. It was so reduced, and was a run first play action scheme. Adam is back to trying a no huddle/up tempo shotgun heavy offense that he stopped running after the Titans game.

    I don't hate Ryan, as I would much rather have him as our QB right now. I am also not comparing him to Rogers or Brady. I am simply saying we are not blocking, we are not running, our WRs are dropping balls, we are killing our selves with Penalties right now, our coach traded away our pro bowl RB, our play calling is predictable, and our whole team is constantly missing assignments. Ryan would not be able to overcome all that, as there are only 2 QBs I have seen in the past 15 years who have been able to consistently over come such short comings. It is ignorant to assume Ryan would fix all these problems, and it is ignorant to watch this team and think QB is the only problem right now. I am no basing this on what Ryan may have become I am basing it on what he has done, and when faced with the same adversity he was unable to to compensate for such glaring deficiencies.
     
  22. JakeemThe Dream

    JakeemThe Dream A True Fan

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    I know lol I was running on blind optimism as well so I can't talk. By now if it's not apparent the offense fell apart because of Tannehill, I don't know when it will be. Not just the talent (which is instrumental) aspect but being the Dolphins QB for 5 years, knowing the receivers, and the whole team lost their leader. Being 4-4 right now is pretty much a miracle if you were to just look at play alone. After going 1-4 last year while on the streak, I honestly felt like we'd win every won. This year I have no faith. I don't think it's too much to say with Tannehill we'd be 5-3 or even 6-2.
     
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  23. TannDaMan17

    TannDaMan17 Well-Known Member

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    Everything would not have been O.K, but everything would have been significantly better. I doubt we get shut out twice, and have the worst offense in the league with RT back there, but who knows, it's all speculation. RT was ready to break out this season the way he did after week 5 last season, his athleticism alone would have had a significant effect on this O, as the read option is used more and more in today's NFL. Not to mention his arm talent, work ethic, and general football IQ. People look at RT's career and see a very mediocre QB. I see a QB who has been held back by a horrible H.C, but started to prove who he really is with a competent H.C, only to have all of that progress stalled by a single injury. Oh well, at least it won't end his career like Swearinger's hit on Keller, or Taylor's hit on Theismann. Tannehill will be back and he will be better than ever without a queasy arse biatch to hold him and this entire team back. In Gase I trust.
     
  24. JakeemThe Dream

    JakeemThe Dream A True Fan

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    Compared to what the offense looks like this year without him, his value is more than apparent. I'm not just saying talent wise although the difference is 18 spots in ratings. Think about the difference between the 10th and 20th best. Although I understand what're saying, Ryan was fully part of the end of the year streak and actually getting better. A top 12 guy is pretty damn good and something we should be proud of. With this defense this year, Tannehill would finally have some real help. This team is more talented. We're somehow 4-4 with the 30th ranked QB which says something lol I don't think he's our savior but when you're comparing Jay Cutler and Tannehill, he may be a savior. I bought into the Cutler hype and now have egg on my face. It's not like I love Tannehill where I'll always defend him but this offense lost confidence, professionalism, and camaraderie which is showing on and off the field. It sucks but no need to overreact.
     
  25. JakeemThe Dream

    JakeemThe Dream A True Fan

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    Yes and unfortunately it's at the expense of us looking like a high school team to find out lol He brings a lot to an offense through his arm and legs. As a fan, I just feel such a difference in confidence when Cutler hits the field instead of Tannehill. Maybe I was just used to winning idk but this season is a huge learning lesson. We'll be alright if we just trust the fact that this team is a work in progress with a ton of potential. Gase won't let us fail. I know he's very unpopular right now (Idk how when he's 4-4) but we all know there's 5-7 teams that would make him their first visit if we let him go. Gase will be our Head Coach for a while.
     
  26. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    that's ignorant
     
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  27. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    the only thing im surprised by is how little interest in contact cutler has...had I known that after tanny was hurt I would have never endorsed signing this version

    well that and maybe I still thought he had his top flat footed fast ball which he clearly does not any more...
     
  28. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

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    It's awfully hard to come to that conclusion when both of the following are true: 1) there are lots of teams that have just as few offensive snaps, whose pass defenses play well, and 2) there are lots of teams who have many more offensive snaps, whose pass defenses play poorly.



    During the period you're talking about, Tannehill's passer rating was 101 and change, and his YPA was 7.4.

    Those may seem like meager differences from Brady's 106.5 and 8.1, but they aren't.
     
  29. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

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    Indeed it would, and I indicated that above by opining that Tannehill's presence would be good for two additional wins this year, which is by no means insignificant.
     
  30. lurking

    lurking FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    2,3 or 4 more wins. You don't know you're just speculating,
     
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  31. JakeemThe Dream

    JakeemThe Dream A True Fan

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    Possibly. I guess that's something we can only speculate. I just think with how this D has played throughout the year (with this inept offense) Tannehill and the Dolphins would be a playoff team again. Think about it. We're only 1 game from the playoffs as of now. We'll probably finish with 7-8 wins so those 2 games could have been significant. I think we'll beat the Bucs, Bills (once), Broncos and possibly the Panthers. I actually feel good about this week for the first time since week 1 (when blind optimism took over) lol I think their run first offense plays into our hands. On the other hand, their D can be pretty good when playing like they can. It'll be a good one IMO. PHINS UP!!
     
  32. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    the changes between this year under cutler and last year under tannehill are the first 5 weeks last year guys didn't know the offense well enough to run full no huddle out the gate except for the damn qb...he was the one spending half his time at the los getting everyone lined up when he should be iding coverage and setting protections...Miami did go to more pa and ajayi influence afterwards cause outside of the qb these guys didn't know the offense very well...and yet ajayi still ran for 4.9 a clip...what's the difference there? the qb exposed 10 man boxes when they showed them and made teams pay for them and the accuracy and placement lead to more rac and when we did get chances to take shots he not only took them but made good on them...this o line was no better last year than it is this year...the qb was the difference...he stood in he took contact he made correct pre snap reads verified them post snap and he placed the football where he should...he set up protections he accounted for unaccounted for in the blocking scheme blitz defenders and when teams blitzed he threw the hot and made them pay...

    fast forward to 2017 without said qb...jay cutler shows up shows early that he doesn't want to stand in doesn't want to take contact to make plays...shows highly inconsistent play both in accuracy and placement and efficiency...ajayi sees nothing but 10 man boxes qb can't make them pay for it...offense is dialed down cause guys still don't know their assignments...ajayi is traded gase goes to more 3 step to help the protection and force the qb to stand in and get the ball out quick teams show less 10 man boxes more 2 deep forcing Miami to "dink and dunk" the ball efficiently all the way down the field to score...predicated on the fact that the team cannot get behind the sticks and go into deeper drops cause the qb won't stand in and the protection/oline play is still as suspect as it was for tanny in 2016...

    the only thing this season has proven for me is that 1. tannehill as I've known for a long time is severely underrated and underappreciated by this board and this fan base and the Miami media even and 2. this version of jay cutler or matt moore should anyone even attempt to go there with the no coverage id's and no setting of protections can't sniff tannehills jock
     
  33. Dajesus

    Dajesus A True Fan

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    Really, because after game 5 did Ryan run the no huddle offense we just ran against Oakland? Was it up tempo? Was he lined up in shotgun as much as we have been this year?
     
  34. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    surely you saw how dialed down those route combos were and all the throws to the backs on predetermined throws...surely

    and we only ran that no huddle early on to try and show them a tempo change...either way that o was way more dialed down than the one tanny was asked to run in weeks 1-5 in 2016...and that was the first year of the o for everyone involved...keeping in mind that there has never been a full no huddle offense in year 1 out the gate that didn't neuter the qb in the nfl period...as in never...

    what Miami was trying to do there was unprecedented...most teams build on it...gase trusted tanny enough out the gate to run it...

    that wasn't a qb failure by any means...
     
  35. JakeemThe Dream

    JakeemThe Dream A True Fan

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    Ya last time I speculated I actually thought the offense would look similar with Cutler lol I must have been dreaming. Tannehill turned it on right before he got hurt and if we're speculating I don't see why he couldn't have won 3-4 more games. I personally think we'd be 5-3 or 6-2 right now. The D is playing lights out compared to last year. Imagine this D if the offense wasn't going 3 and out every drive and not the 32 ranked scoring offense (14.5) in the league. PHINS UP!!
     
  36. dirkey

    dirkey FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I'm confused @lurking - you assure us we'd be better off to the tune of 2 more wins at least if Tannehill was playing, yet tell someone else they're speculating when they say we'd have more wins if Tannehill was playing? I'm probably missing something :)

     
  37. Dajesus

    Dajesus A True Fan

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    Ryan's QB rating last year was 93.5, witch thus far this year he would be the 25th best QB in the NFL, and Jay has a rating of 87.4 witch is good for the 29th best qb, but if we compared the ratings for the first 8 games they would be quite similar. Trust me I know this team would be be better with Ryan. I am 100% positive Ryan is better than Jay. But its insane how many are trying to say he would be magic if he was here this year. He would be getting sacked like he did in the first 5 games of last year when this team struggled almost identically to how they are struggling now. He would be good for at least one or two games where just implodes much he did last year when we lost 38-6 to the same Baltimore team that beet us 40-0.

    The bottom line is we just aren't a very good team. Our o-line is horrible, we have no running game, our WRs are vastly under performing, our TE is invisable, our super rich dline has been inconsistent and is not producing what it is being paid to do, our LBs are much bettter against the run but can't cover TEs or RBs, our secondary is young and acting as such, and safety play has been inconsistent(yes even Jones,) our team has look ill prepared across the board in 3 of our 4 losses, and we shoot our selves in the foot with penalties. Oh yeah and our 2nd string QB play has been quite bad.
     
  38. jessejames123

    jessejames123 Scout Team

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    Pretty sure when we were 1-4 last year the offensive unit wasnt caught up to the QB in terms of the scheme.

    Was to be expected though the entire team was playing a new scheme for first time. Theres always an adjustment period.
     
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  39. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer 5 Years of Posting Excellence. Finheaven VIP Donator

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    There have been downfield plays to be made that Jay Cutler is not making, that Tannehill was making last season. There have been one-hopper throws that Jay Cutler has made that Ryan Tannehill has never one-hopped in his life. There have been scramble outside of the pocket situations where Jay Cutler has been unable to convert because of athletic limitations that Ryan Tannehill has converted in the past based on athleticism.

    That's why people are saying that the offense would be better with Ryan Tannehill. You can look straight at glaring flaws Jay Cutler has in 2017 and those are not big glaring flaws that Ryan Tannehill had in this same offense in 2016.

    Only thing I will add is that blaming the QBs for the offensive not going no huddle is ridiculous and stupid. Go back and watch games 1-5 last season and see how the offense lines up. It's total confusion with the quarterback showing everyone individually where to line up before the snap. You see Cutler doing the same thing AGAIN this year.

    Our skill players are dumber than a box of rocks.
     
    Spiff likes this.
  40. Phinatic8u

    Phinatic8u Adam ****ing Gase

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    He's a injury prone dickwad but I've never seen Parker have to move or get re-lined up..

    That's probably why the staff gleams with praise when asked about him, cause they know once he gets away from these yearly nagging things he's going to be a monster.
     

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