Why is everyone so surprised?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by lemmiwinks, Nov 7, 2017.

  1. lurking

    lurking FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Apr 2007
    Messages:
    5,750
    Likes Received:
    997
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Yes I was speculating, he was stating it as a fact. After rereading it, l probably should've worded that a little differently.
     
    Last edited: Nov 9, 2017
  2. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 2017
    Messages:
    736
    Likes Received:
    392
    Trophy Points:
    63

    It actually is a fact that two additional wins would be expected by virtue of Tannehill's presence alone, based on league data regarding the QB position from 2004 to 2016.

    Of course sometimes the unexpected happens, but that isn't what's probable.
     
  3. lurking

    lurking FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Apr 2007
    Messages:
    5,750
    Likes Received:
    997
    Trophy Points:
    113
    It's not a fact, but keep telling yourself that.
     
  4. JakeemThe Dream

    JakeemThe Dream A True Fan

    Joined:
    Aug 2016
    Messages:
    1,352
    Likes Received:
    588
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I don't believe we're just bad team. We are pretty good with penalties except for last week. He would be 13th or 14th in ratings if the season were to end today but more than likely QBs ratings will get worse as the season goes along. The first 9 ratings are players that threw one or 2 passes, or Bradford who has 43 attempts 124.4 rating, Mallet has a 103.1 rating on 16 attempts (ranked 15th), Fitzpatrick has a 95.7 rating on 48 attempts (ranked 23rd). So really if you look at the ratings, Tannehill would have the 13th or 14th rating. Our D-Line is the reason we're so good against the run and has done it's part this year. I think just like you're speculating that he wouldn't turn this around is the same as someone saying he would. It's so much more than pure stats. If it were, Alex Smith is the best QB in the NFL. For everyone saying we're not a very good team, 4-4 is actually pretty good with the Qbs we have now. Realistically, did anyone think we'd be a game out of the playoffs halfway through the season with Cutle? There's no question there's some fixing to do but don't you possibly believe all the issues you stated above somehow correlate not only with each other but also not having Tannehill. Bad Oline= bad run game or no threat from QB, Underperforming receivers=QB talent and camaraderie, and the main thing preparation. I've never seen us so ill-prepared with Tannehill at the helm. Even his rookie year our offense didn't this bad. It's bad with Cutler. I think Drake will get a real shot at starting and besides the fumble, I thought he played very well (quick, fast, legs never stop, can catch with the best of em). We didn't have a running game before trading Ajayi so I think that move might be the type where both teams win. Time will tell brother. All we want is the same thing...WIN!! PHINS UP!!

    http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...ference=null&d-447263-s=PASSING_PASSER_RATING
     
  5. Dajesus

    Dajesus A True Fan

    Joined:
    Dec 2001
    Messages:
    4,197
    Likes Received:
    311
    Trophy Points:
    83
    But Cutler would still be only 4 spots behind him and 6 rating points behind Ryan.
     
  6. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer 5 Years of Posting Excellence. Finheaven VIP Donator

    Joined:
    Sep 2011
    Messages:
    24,846
    Likes Received:
    2,491
    Trophy Points:
    113
    IIRC at the beginning of last season, basically everyone needed help lining up. The amount of traffic management the QB had to do before the snap was absurd. He was basically pushing multiple guys to their spots before every play.
     
    lurking likes this.
  7. JakeemThe Dream

    JakeemThe Dream A True Fan

    Joined:
    Aug 2016
    Messages:
    1,352
    Likes Received:
    588
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Fact-a thing that is indisputably the case

    Speculation- the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.

    I think you're right lol Not pointing out anyone especially because I speculated Cutler would do well as a Fin based on the theory of him having great receivers (my opinion), Gase as coach (opinion), running game (opinion), and my blind optimism (homer thinking got to me). As it turns out, my theory is wrong even with a decent amount of "evidence" of why I thought he'd succeed. A fact is a fact. It cannot be disputed. Tannehill could have added 4 more wins or who knows? His knee would have been a mess so maybe he would make us worse. Very doubtful but that's why it's pure speculation rather than a fact.
     
    lurking likes this.
  8. lurking

    lurking FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Apr 2007
    Messages:
    5,750
    Likes Received:
    997
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Agreed, that's all we're doing is speculating, except for one poster who thinks everything he says is fact.
     
  9. Spiff

    Spiff Starter Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Mar 2005
    Messages:
    2,973
    Likes Received:
    302
    Trophy Points:
    83
    And I’m still surprised how this is not evident in practice.
     
    Avigatorx likes this.
  10. JakeemThe Dream

    JakeemThe Dream A True Fan

    Joined:
    Aug 2016
    Messages:
    1,352
    Likes Received:
    588
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ya that is true. Cutler doesn't add the threat of running which is something Tannehill is one of the best at which opens up the offense a ton. Cutler had a hell of a game vs the Raiders which probably moved him up 10 points (just a guess with those stats). At the same time, Cutler didn't have to go into Baltimore and get destroyed like we did with Tannehill. He probably wouldn't have fared that much better than Moore but def a step up. Stats aside, the offense just looks lost without any sense of urgency. As you know, stats are deceitful. Cutlers play this year is proof of that.
     
  11. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 2017
    Messages:
    736
    Likes Received:
    392
    Trophy Points:
    63

    The calculation of an expected number of wins contributed by a QB, based on his typical level of play and large amounts of historical league data, is indeed an indisputable fact.

    That doesn't mean that number of wins is guaranteed to happen. It means it's expected, and anything else is unexpected. What's expected is a fact, however.
     
  12. PBay Fin Fan

    PBay Fin Fan FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Feb 2012
    Messages:
    940
    Likes Received:
    53
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Our over/under was 7.5 in May, well before we lost Tanny.
     
    JakeemThe Dream likes this.
  13. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 2017
    Messages:
    736
    Likes Received:
    392
    Trophy Points:
    63

    And you can believe those folks are using the same data I am to make those calculations. Again two wins.
     
  14. fansinceGWilson

    fansinceGWilson FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Mar 2016
    Messages:
    2,328
    Likes Received:
    195
    Trophy Points:
    63
    I expect to live to 90
     
    fininpsl and JakeemThe Dream like this.
  15. Avigatorx

    Avigatorx Sec. 107 Row 2

    Joined:
    Mar 2006
    Messages:
    3,458
    Likes Received:
    648
    Trophy Points:
    113
    You should let this one go bro.
     
    fininpsl, JakeemThe Dream and lurking like this.
  16. PBay Fin Fan

    PBay Fin Fan FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Feb 2012
    Messages:
    940
    Likes Received:
    53
    Trophy Points:
    28
    You are spot on sir. Vegas had our over/under at 7.5 in May. Well before Tanny went down. I do wish we had him though. As well as we were winning close games I think we had a good chance of going 9-7/10-6 with RT.
     
    <O> likes this.
  17. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 2017
    Messages:
    736
    Likes Received:
    392
    Trophy Points:
    63

    In that case the fact would be that you'd be expected to live to somewhere in your mid-70s, with all else equal. 90 would be great, but very unexpected.
     
  18. JakeemThe Dream

    JakeemThe Dream A True Fan

    Joined:
    Aug 2016
    Messages:
    1,352
    Likes Received:
    588
    Trophy Points:
    113
    There's way too many variables that have to be taken into account. The main one is Tannehill was getting better last year before he got hurt. Who's to say he doesn't continue to progress? How can anyone make a projection yet call it a fact? Apparently I thought a fact was something totally different lol No reason to argue..this has gone way over my head lol Sounds more like a projection based off of "The calculation of an expected number of wins contributed by a QB, based on his typical level of play and large amounts of historical league data." Aren't you using those calculations to project the potential number of wins? The definition of a fact is something that is true or something that has occurred or has been proven correct. How can something that never happened be considered a fact?
     
  19. JakeemThe Dream

    JakeemThe Dream A True Fan

    Joined:
    Aug 2016
    Messages:
    1,352
    Likes Received:
    588
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I think he's projecting based off of Tannehill's past. I don't see how calculations based off of RT's career can be factual until it actually were to happen. Maybe I'm wrong or there's some weird loophole that I'm oblivious too lol Based off of my family's history, I should live until 80. Is that a fact when I can get hit by a car tomorrow? I'm lost :) The definition of a fact is something that is true or something that has occurred or has been proven correct. Google seems to think so anyways lol PHINS UP!! I think i'll let this one go.
     
    fininpsl and lurking like this.
  20. BigNastyFish

    BigNastyFish A True Fan

    Joined:
    Sep 2012
    Messages:
    1,223
    Likes Received:
    75
    Trophy Points:
    48
    I think the adjective "surprised" is too simplified. There was a reasonable expectation, first and foremost, that we had perhaps solved the HC puzzle. That assumption is trending in the wrong direction now.

    In addition -- I believe the fan base reasonably expected internal issues like Ajayi where in the past. And of course -- for us dreamers we imagined Tunsil and the OL to be moving in a positive direction.

    Add to that the seemingly "loaded talent" on O with WR and RB -- we could realistically score some points -- especially with the expectation Gase could be a legit O wizzer...

    But we all forgot who built this house of cards and the fact that stupidity rolls down hill...

    Oh well. The good news is we won't suck enough to grab one of the elite talents @QB in the draft so our collective karma seems intact.
     
    Last edited: Nov 9, 2017
  21. fansinceGWilson

    fansinceGWilson FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

    Joined:
    Mar 2016
    Messages:
    2,328
    Likes Received:
    195
    Trophy Points:
    63
    So there is a silver lining
     
    BigNastyFish likes this.
  22. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 2017
    Messages:
    736
    Likes Received:
    392
    Trophy Points:
    63

    Think about it this way — a calculated number has to be a fact. What that number means to any one person is an opinion.

    The life expectancy for any human, for example, is somewhere in the mid-70s. That is a fact. What that number means to any one person is an opinion.

    The fact that Ryan Tannehill would be expected to contribute two additional wins to the Dolphins could mean absolutely nothing to you. That expected number of wins is a fact. Whatever that number means to you is your opinion.
     
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2017
  23. JakeemThe Dream

    JakeemThe Dream A True Fan

    Joined:
    Aug 2016
    Messages:
    1,352
    Likes Received:
    588
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Oh okay I get what you're saying. Well in my opinion, I this offense would have never looked like this with Tannehill. Reason being is has never has looked this inept (its abysmal) with Tannehill and I believe he's progressed throughout his career judging from last year. Is that a fact that he would look better due to his continued progression throughout his career especially under Gase? It's my opinion based off of multiple reasons. Not getting on you..Just wondering and if not spin it so I get it better. Thanks brother!!
     
    <O> likes this.
  24. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 2017
    Messages:
    736
    Likes Received:
    392
    Trophy Points:
    63

    No doubt. And again, the two additional expected wins is highly significant in that regard. To expect just one player to account for two wins over and above what would be achieved without him is saying a lot when there are 22 starting players in addition to special teams players in this sport.

    Think about it like this -- does Julius Thomas account for two wins all by himself, by simply starting above Marqueis Gray? Highly doubtful. In fact the team might do better with Gray.
     
    JakeemThe Dream likes this.
  25. JakeemThe Dream

    JakeemThe Dream A True Fan

    Joined:
    Aug 2016
    Messages:
    1,352
    Likes Received:
    588
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I get what you're saying. Speaking of Tannehill, Cutler is the worst decision maker we've had in awhile. Just plays like the scramble for the first down, or missing open receivers, it is so plainly obvious. Newton thinks he's god playing a Defense that realized what's the point when our QB throws picks inside his own 40 to make it a 10 pt game which in turn lost us the game. On the bright side, the Ajayi trade doesn't look all that bad :) Drake needs more touches but that will come when Tannehill is back and our offense can actually move the ball. Seems like the other team just wastes the clock every game Vs. the us. Thanks brother!! PHINS UP!!
     
    <O> likes this.

Share This Page