WVDolphan's "Get Real" Today's subject-Physically challenged 2nd round money bargains

[qmar]

While you make really good points WV, I'm not ready to discuss draft and what we should be doing come next year. We are 5-4 with a shot for the playoffs. I'm focused on this year.

That being said, there is no way we are moving up to get the #1 pick (even if the Bills don't end up with it). We will have a pick in the 13 to 24 range more then likely and it's going to take all of this years draft picks OR our 1st, 3rd, and 1st next year and even then I question whether the team moves that far back for just a 3rd this year and a 1st next year.

 

[qmar]

No not saying that at all..

But some front office ppl have different philosphies. I think Miami did the right thing..We were 1 and 15 and were suffering in the trenches.
Miami could not afford to draft a QB that could bust like Matt Ryan..
Long was the sure thing in the draft, thats why we took him.

Its been shown that teams can be more than medicore if they have a good running game and a qb has protection.
Henne has been protected very well..So if Miami is not satisfied with his production. Miami can plug in another qb.

But I think Henne is the long term answer he has the tools..He has the ability is getting better..He has made plenty strides..
We went 7 and 9 last year..9 and 7...10 and 6 is within our reach.

While I'm not sold on Henne being the long term answer, I do agree that Long was the right pick there. There wasn't a safer pick in the draft and if you are going to spend that much money on a guy, why not go the safe route. You make a great point with coming off a 1-15 year. Looking back on it, I'm on the fence with who I would take. Ryan looks really good this year, but I also know he has a very solid team around him and that team was underrated going into his rookie year. Jake is Jake, future HOF'er at an important position, but certainly not as critical as QB. Certainly an interesting debate.

 

[hugoguzman]

To start, lets examine the teams at the top of the playoff chase this season, and see where their QB was selected in their respective drafts.

Patriots - 6th round
Jets - 1st round, traded up using almost all of their picks to select their QB 5th overall
Steelers - 1st round
Ravens - 1st round
Colts - 1st round
Chargers - (yea the Chargers. We all know they are doing their usual and winning down the stretch to capture that weak divisions title) 1st round
Eagles - 1st round
Giants - 1st round
Packers - 1st round
Falcons - 1st round
Saints - 2nd round
Someone will win the NFC West, but are any of those teams a contender for anything? The best QB in that division, is a rookie who was of course taken 1st overall last year by the Rams. Look for them to win that division regularly over the next few seasons.



[video=youtube;BnD6ojjA0OA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnD6ojjA0OA[/video]

So what do we notice? 9 of the 11 teams with a legitimate shot to win the Super Bowl, have QBs who were drafted in the first round. One team, the Pats, got lucky and hit a legend on a 6th round pick. Another team, the Saints have a QB who was a 2nd round pick. Note however he was casted off from his original team for a top 5 overall selection at QB who is definately a better player. Brees has been tremendous in his own right the last few years though.

But, what we notice is almost every one of those teams got their QB from not only the 1st round, but most of them in the top few selection. Only a few of them were mid first round selections.

And of those teams, look at the ones who have been perinial contenders over the last few seasons. The ones who are in the mix EVERY YEAR. With the exception of Brady, they are teams with QBs who went early in the first round.

This should SCREAM to any FO in the NFL, that if you want to put a team together, the first and foremost thing you need to do is get yourself a talented QB. It screams if you have the first overall selection and you dont have a QB, you probably want to consider that before selecting a lineman.

And thats obviously what this franchise needs to do. Of course we are likely not going to be in position to draft a guy near the top of the draft this season. But, I think its clear, if we are going to draft a QB, and its clear we need to btw, that we shouldnt continue to WASTE our time and WASTE our selections in the 2nd and middle rounds on a QB. Either get the real deal or dont get one at all.

I say this because I hear a lot of rumblings for going other needs in the first round and drafting a QB later. My point is WHY? If you arent going to draft a QB in the first round, please dont bother. Im tired of these hopefulls with 2nd round picks when there are tons of talented players at skill positions we desperately need available in rounds 2 and 3. And I think I have made it more than clear that their just arent good QBs left in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

I think its pretty clear what we need to do. If there is any way possible for us to package enough picks, even with the void of a 2nd rounder, we need to trade up to get our QB. Only then can we actually start to build this team.

Hell, we may not need that much building if we get our QB. Look at what the Jets did in 09. They traded all but their 3rd round pick and moved up to #5 overall in the first round to get their guy. All they did was wind up in the AFC title game. They had a decent team already, they just needed a QB. I think we are in a similar position. We compete pretty well with good teams and beat almost all the bad teams we play. We do this despite horrible QB play. If we can just get a QB, we could catapult quickly.

Not only that, this isnt 1991 anymore, where teams would draft a QB and they would almost automatically be figured to sit a year or two and watch some veteran play mediocre at the position while the team struggles. Guys are coming in, starting right away, and doing a pretty nice job. This has been a trend over the last 5 or 6 years. There have been a lot fewer busts it seems over this span at the position as well.

Whats tough, is personally the only QB Im truly sold on that could be in this draft is Andrew Luck. If he comes out, he will likely go 1st overall. The problem with that is there is a strong chance Buffalo will have that selection. They wont be trading it. I also highly doubt they draft a LT if they find themselves in that spot either. That could be a shame for Luck, because if he does go to Buffalo, I could see him busting as a result. Buffalo is where QB careers go to die.

So I suggest if we cant get Luck, it might be wise to pass on a QB altogether and struggle for one more season with some FA vet or Thigpen if he plays well down the stretch. Hell, it isnt impossible Thigpen turns out to be our guy and this is mute, but Im not betting on that. Mallett is interesting and Locker could be as well. I just know I dont want to spend more valuable picks in the 2nd and mid rounds on a QB.

Here's my theory on the drafting. 1st round is specifically for QBs, playmakers on D(pass rush specialists especially) and the occasional WR or DB.

The 2nd and 3rd rounds are where you load up on skill position guys. You can find great talent at RB, WR, TE, and defensive playmakers in these rounds. Yet almost any QB you take in these rounds will likely bust. Thats why you dont use these picks on QBs. These are the most valuable picks a team has. The contracts are much friendlier to the cap system as well.

The later rounds are where you get your cornfed linemen. You can get great linemen in these rounds if you take the right ones. And the line is about cohesiveness and unity anyway. Its not about individual players so much. You need a solid group that plays well together.

You can also find the occasional gem at other positions in these rounds. A lot of good RBs can come from these rounds. RB is the most easily filled position in the league as it is. As long as a guy has talent, if the line blocks well for him, he will produce big numbers.

I look at these rounds 5-7 as flyers. You want to take guys that you think you can hit a homerun with and dont worry about them being complete whiffs. This is where you may take a QB on occasion just to try and get lucky. But, if you need a QB, get a 1st rounder. If you have an older QB, then take a shot every year in these late rounds at one and see if you can develope a project. If you didnt get lucky by the time your older QB needs to go, then you get a 1st rounder.

So please, no more of these band aids at QB. No more projects. We need a top level QB and we need one NOW. Whoever is in charge of this team on draft day, get us what we need. Anything we select without getting the QB we need is a waste anyway because this team isnt going anywhere until the QB void that was left over 10 years ago gets filled. If you have to trade top picks in next years draft in order to get in position to get our QB, then do it. It simply dosent matter how many other "holes" we need to fill until we fill this one. So just ****ing do it already and put an end to the misery this fanbase has had to endure.

Well said.

And you managed to say what you had to say without
a) Taking a shot at Henne
b) Lamenting the fact that Miami passed on Matt Ryan

Props to you.

P.S. If Henne's injury forces him to miss the rest of the season and Thigpen does not produce extremely solid numbers down the stretch, I would argue that Miami needs to do whatever it takes to draft a QB in the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft. As most know, I still think that Henne should have his shot at some more starts, but if this injury is at all serious, it would only serve to lower his ceiling, since durability was one of his main strengths and mobility was one of his main weakness. Both of these facets will get worse for him if this injury proves to be more than a "day to day" knee injury.

 

[X-Pacolypse]

Since the Dolphins have pretty much a ZERO shot at landing Andrew Luck, then what QB in the first round should Miami draft? Because, Luck is the only guy that I feel is first round worthy.

 

[madmic21]

First Round Qbs
2000
Pennington
2001
Vick
2002
Carr
Harrington
Ramsey
2003
Palmer
Leftwich
Boller
Grossman
2004
Eli
Rivers
Big Ben
Losman

2005
Alex Smith
Rodgers
Campbell
2006
Young
Leinart
Cutler

2007
Russell
Quinn

2008
Ryan
Flacco

2009
Stafford
Sanchez
Freeman

2010
Bradford
Tebow

 

[X-Pacolypse]

First Round Qbs
2000
Pennington
2001
Vick
2002
Carr
Harrington
Ramsey
2003
Palmer
Leftwich
Boller
Grossman
2004
Eli
Rivers
Big Ben
Losman

2005
Alex Smith
Rodgers
Campbell
2006
Young
Leinart
Cutler

2007
Russell
Quinn

2008
Ryan
Flacco

2009
Stafford
Sanchez
Freeman

2010
Bradford
Tebow

A lot of busts on that list.

 

[qmar]

Just because you pick a QB in the 1st rd doesnt mean he is good. Its feast or famine with the QB and if you're team is lucky enough to have a shot at a QB then take it. I wouldnt call Ryan a franchise QB.....I would love to see the list of QB that got picked in the first rd that didnt work out.

Here is a list of all QB's taken in the 1st or 2nd round going back to 2000 (through 2007, too difficult to determine how good 2008 and beyond QBs will be, i.e. Ryan, Flacco, etc). I have them labeled as bust, serviceable, or star next to each name and have bolded my opinions on the ones that could be argued.

1st Rounders
Pennington - 2000 1st Round - Serviceable
Vick - 2001 1st Round - Star
Carr - 2002 1st Round - Bust
Harrington - 2002 1st Round - Bust
Ramsey - 2002 1st Round - Bust
Carson - 2003 1st Round - Serivceable or Star ?
Byron Leftwich - 2003 1st Round - Bust
Kyle Boller - 2003 1st Round - Bust
Rex Grossman - 2003 1st Round - Bust
Eli - 2004 1st Round - Star
Rivers - 2004 1st Round - Star
Roethlisberger - 2004 1st Round - Star
JP Losman - 2004 1st Round - Bust
Alex Smith - 2005 1st Round - Bust or Serviceable ? probably bust here
Aaron Rodgers - 2005 1st Round - Star
Jason Campbell - 2005 1st Round - Serviceable
Vince Young - 2006 1st Round - Star or Serviceable ? looks like he will be pretty darn good
Leinart - 2006 1st Round - Bust
Cutler - 2006 1st Round - Serviceable
Jemarcus - 2007 1st Round - Bust
Brady Quinn - 2007 1st Round - Bust

6 of 18 QB's (33%) drafted in the 1st round since 2000 have emerged as Stars (of these 6, 5 were drafted in the first 15 picks)
9 of 18 QB's (50%) drafted in the 1st round since 2000 have emerged as Busts (of these 9, 5 were drafted in the first 10 picks)

2nd Rounders
Drew Brees - 2001 2nd Round - Star
Quincy Carter - 2001 2nd Round - Bust
Tuiassassopo - 2001 2nd Round - Bust
Kellen Clemens - 2006 2nd Round - Bust
Tavaris Jackson - 2006 2nd Round - Serviceable
Drew Stanton - 2007 2nd Round - Bust
John Beck - 2007 2nd Round - Bust

1 of 7 2nd Round QB's have emerged as stars from the 2nd Round
5 of 7 2nd Round QB's have emerged as busts from the 2nd Round (although busting in the 2nd is a lot less detrimental then busting in the 1st)

I think the only point WV has made that was proven by the data is that the 2nd round has not produced many good QB's at least over the past 10 yrs or so.

Where WV's argument has holes is that taking a 1st round QB is the end all be all. Seeing as 5 of the 9 Busts in my analysis came in the 1st 10 picks and that only 33% of the 1st Round QBs have turned into stars, this isn't the only way to build your team. If you hit it big and get one of the stars, that's great. You've built a good foundation for your franchise, but the data says that you are more likely to miss then hit.

 

[AgentXof12]

We stand a better chance of finding a top flight quarterback by changing head coaches until we find one who is intelligent and knows how to set players up for success than we do of lucking into the right top pick for a Payton Manning type of QB. Seriously.

 

[67Stang]

For every Matt Ryan, there are atleast 5 busts like Alex Smith,Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, David Carr, Joey Harrintons, Akili Smith, Cade McNown, Jim Drukenmiller, Rick Mirer, Heath Schuler, Jamarcus Russell.
3 of the best to ever play the game were not selected in the first round...Favre (2), Montana (3), Brady (6).

This article sums it up pretty well about how little of a diffrence there is in 1st round QB's and QB's seelected outside the 1st round. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...rback-in-the-first-round-is-it-worth-the-risk

I will say that those who have hit with number 1 QB's hit big! But the Marinos and the Mannings are few and far between.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Henne matches most of your description. sounds easy. dolphins need to hire you.

Which is why Henne had a low bust percentage, and profiled as a potential solid starter.... the problem was, Henne was the same quarterback his entire career... He's virtually the same quarterback now that he was as a sophomore at Michigan....

Significant upside just isn't there with Henne... he'll always be just good enough to keep people like you guessing..

 

[hugoguzman]

Here is a list of all QB's taken in the 1st or 2nd round going back to 2000 (through 2007, too difficult to determine how good 2008 and beyond QBs will be, i.e. Ryan, Flacco, etc). I have them labeled as bust, serviceable, or star next to each name and have bolded my opinions on the ones that could be argued.

1st Rounders
Pennington - 2000 1st Round - Serviceable
Vick - 2001 1st Round - Star
Carr - 2002 1st Round - Bust
Harrington - 2002 1st Round - Bust
Ramsey - 2002 1st Round - Bust
Carson - 2003 1st Round - Serivceable or Star ?
Byron Leftwich - 2003 1st Round - Bust
Kyle Boller - 2003 1st Round - Bust
Rex Grossman - 2003 1st Round - Bust
Eli - 2004 1st Round - Star
Rivers - 2004 1st Round - Star
Roethlisberger - 2004 1st Round - Star
JP Losman - 2004 1st Round - Bust
Alex Smith - 2005 1st Round - Bust or Serviceable ? probably bust here
Aaron Rodgers - 2005 1st Round - Star
Jason Campbell - 2005 1st Round - Serviceable
Vince Young - 2006 1st Round - Star or Serviceable ? looks like he will be pretty darn good
Leinart - 2006 1st Round - Bust
Cutler - 2006 1st Round - Serviceable
Jemarcus - 2007 1st Round - Bust
Brady Quinn - 2007 1st Round - Bust

6 of 18 QB's (33%) drafted in the 1st round since 2000 have emerged as Stars (of these 6, 5 were drafted in the first 15 picks)
9 of 18 QB's (50%) drafted in the 1st round since 2000 have emerged as Busts (of these 9, 5 were drafted in the first 10 picks)

2nd Rounders
Drew Brees - 2001 2nd Round - Star
Quincy Carter - 2001 2nd Round - Bust
Tuiassassopo - 2001 2nd Round - Bust
Kellen Clemens - 2006 2nd Round - Bust
Tavaris Jackson - 2006 2nd Round - Serviceable
Drew Stanton - 2007 2nd Round - Bust
John Beck - 2007 2nd Round - Bust

1 of 7 2nd Round QB's have emerged as stars from the 2nd Round
5 of 7 2nd Round QB's have emerged as busts from the 2nd Round (although busting in the 2nd is a lot less detrimental then busting in the 1st)

I think the only point WV has made that was proven by the data is that the 2nd round has not produced many good QB's at least over the past 10 yrs or so.

Where WV's argument has holes is that taking a 1st round QB is the end all be all. Seeing as 5 of the 9 Busts in my analysis came in the 1st 10 picks and that only 33% of the 1st Round QBs have turned into stars, this isn't the only way to build your team. If you hit it big and get one of the stars, that's great. You've built a good foundation for your franchise, but the data says that you are more likely to miss then hit.

You make some valid points, but my counter would be as follows:
a) Miami hasn't drafted a QB in the first round for nearly 30 years, and a result, the franchise has struggled to locate a true franchise QB ever since that last first-round pick (Marino) retired
b) Since almost all of us agree that we're not just looking for a "serviceable" QB but are instead looking for a true franchise QB, the stats suggest that while the percentages are still low, the best shot of find a franchise guy is via the first round of the NFL draft.

With these two facts in mind, I'd still lean towards drafting a QB in the first round (if there's a quality one available when it's Miami's turn to pick...a big if)

 

[flynryan15]

We have 2 Qbs that are capable starters..

What our biggest need IMO is center..

I really think thats where we will go in the first round..

After that its running back...Miami is not drafting a qb next year..I think you can count on that.

As much as I hate to admit it your thought on our first puck is dead on! Not because that is our biggest news, but because that is how our FO works. Select the biggest corn fed lineman on the board. Then we will go LB in round 2, look for RB and TE in round 4 and on.

 

[CW_McGraw]

Here is a list of all QB's taken in the 1st or 2nd round going back to 2000 (through 2007, too difficult to determine how good 2008 and beyond QBs will be, i.e. Ryan, Flacco, etc). I have them labeled as bust, serviceable, or star next to each name and have bolded my opinions on the ones that could be argued.

1st Rounders
Pennington - 2000 1st Round - Serviceable
Vick - 2001 1st Round - Star
Carr - 2002 1st Round - Bust
Harrington - 2002 1st Round - Bust
Ramsey - 2002 1st Round - Bust
Carson - 2003 1st Round - Serivceable or Star ?
Byron Leftwich - 2003 1st Round - Bust
Kyle Boller - 2003 1st Round - Bust
Rex Grossman - 2003 1st Round - Bust
Eli - 2004 1st Round - Star
Rivers - 2004 1st Round - Star
Roethlisberger - 2004 1st Round - Star
JP Losman - 2004 1st Round - Bust
Alex Smith - 2005 1st Round - Bust or Serviceable ? probably bust here
Aaron Rodgers - 2005 1st Round - Star
Jason Campbell - 2005 1st Round - Serviceable
Vince Young - 2006 1st Round - Star or Serviceable ? looks like he will be pretty darn good
Leinart - 2006 1st Round - Bust
Cutler - 2006 1st Round - Serviceable
Jemarcus - 2007 1st Round - Bust
Brady Quinn - 2007 1st Round - Bust

6 of 18 QB's (33%) drafted in the 1st round since 2000 have emerged as Stars (of these 6, 5 were drafted in the first 15 picks)
9 of 18 QB's (50%) drafted in the 1st round since 2000 have emerged as Busts (of these 9, 5 were drafted in the first 10 picks)

2nd Rounders
Drew Brees - 2001 2nd Round - Star
Quincy Carter - 2001 2nd Round - Bust
Tuiassassopo - 2001 2nd Round - Bust
Kellen Clemens - 2006 2nd Round - Bust
Tavaris Jackson - 2006 2nd Round - Serviceable
Drew Stanton - 2007 2nd Round - Bust
John Beck - 2007 2nd Round - Bust

1 of 7 2nd Round QB's have emerged as stars from the 2nd Round
5 of 7 2nd Round QB's have emerged as busts from the 2nd Round (although busting in the 2nd is a lot less detrimental then busting in the 1st)

I think the only point WV has made that was proven by the data is that the 2nd round has not produced many good QB's at least over the past 10 yrs or so.

Where WV's argument has holes is that taking a 1st round QB is the end all be all. Seeing as 5 of the 9 Busts in my analysis came in the 1st 10 picks and that only 33% of the 1st Round QBs have turned into stars, this isn't the only way to build your team. If you hit it big and get one of the stars, that's great. You've built a good foundation for your franchise, but the data says that you are more likely to miss then hit.

The fact remains that no second round QB since Boomer Esiason has emerged as a legitimate franchise QB for the team that drafted them. I'd argue that Tavaris Jackson will be out of Minnesota once Brad Childress, the only guy who thought he was worth anything more than a flyer in the 4th, is fired. I'm not closing the door on Henne and would be fine with giving him some more time, but if he emerges as a good NFL QB, it probably won't be for the Dolphins.

Once again, taking a first round QB is not a guaranteed way to fix a team, but taking a QB in the second round hasn't fixed a team's QB issues since Ronald Reagan was president. If you aren't taking a QB in the first round, you have basically no shot at finding a franchise QB. Drafting a QB in the later round is like buying lottery tickets once a week while Drafting a QB in the first round is like playing high stakes poker. The latter can bankrupt you pretty quickly if you're an idiot, but the former is literally just throwing your money away in small chunks.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

try doing a study on the 2 starting qbs for every super bowl. i bet its not so one sided for having 1st round qbs.

most of the qbs on the OPs list came from the 2004 and 2008 drafts. there really hasnt been many great qbs that came out of the draft any other years. you get one here and there. so to say there is always great 1st round qbs available every year is way off

also we just signed our 1st round drafted qb yesterday. how did he turn out?

Patrick Ramsey was another one of these QB's that came from a wide open, gimmicky offensive systems at Tulane under Frank Scelfo... He was drafted in the 1st round to try to run Spurrier's fun-n-gun offense in Washington...

Just because a quarterback was drafted in the 1st round obviously doesn't mean he should've been..

 

[Sirspud]

Patrick Ramsey was another one of these QB's that came from a wide open, gimmicky offensive systems at Tulane under Frank Scelfo... He was drafted in the 1st round to try to run Spurrier's fun-n-gun offense in Washington...

Just because a quarterback was drafted in the 1st round obviously doesn't mean he should've been..

Wait, are you saying we finally found a QB who was drafted in the first round?! Bam, we're gonna win the Super Bowl! Signing a first round guy like Ramsey is the best move this team ever made.