Yikes! Odds Against Jets Raised To 9!

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Nublar7, Dec 12, 2005.

  1. Nublar7

    Nublar7 Retired Finheaven VIP

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    Talk about pressure. The opening line earlier today was 7.5 points, now it is up to 9 points. :eek:

    I hope we don't disappoint.
     
  2. pwn3dyo

    pwn3dyo FinHeaven VIP

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    I feel confident! Before the dolphins game i am worrying about TB @ NE and KC @ NYG though! God it feels great to have a slim, but legit playoff scerenio this late in the year. :)
     
  3. Alex44

    Alex44 Chicago Bears GM

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    I hope we win 50-0
     
  4. mor911

    mor911 I am Unicron,.Megatron is my slave Donator

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    Yeah, complete and utter demolition of the Jets would rule.
     
  5. Nublar7

    Nublar7 Retired Finheaven VIP

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    I would love a repeat of the 1995 game when we won 52-14. :D
     
  6. SMadison29

    SMadison29 What Sherman aspires to be

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    I think it's because the odd makers realized Pennington & Martin aren't playing, but this could easily be a let down game for us.
     
  7. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

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    Bettors are in love with giving points with losing or mediocre teams. I've mentioned that many times recently. Baffling beyond description. I guess they think it's finally a chance for a subpar team to take it out on someone.

    It's impossible to look at a database of below .500 teams in any sport and find a decent sample size where they succeed as favorites. When it's a role of substantial favorite like 6 points or more in football or 8 points or more in basketball the cover percentage is abysmal. Yesterday you had the Titans and Packers flop in that role, thank you very much.

    I guess I should just shut up and continue to bet the other way. I'll damn sure have the Jets on Sunday. But no sense pouncing now, since -10 is on the horizon. It's a classic case of long term advantage investment. It doesn't matter in the slightest if the Jets lose 47-3. Over the long haul a 6-7 team will not cover 9 points more often than not, especially against a division rival.
     
  8. PHINANALYST

    PHINANALYST Seasoned Veteran

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    We will win, but I would not take the 9 points ...

    Winning by 10 is a risky proposition in the NFL on any SUN ...

    The JETS are without Curtis Martin and are in a world of hurt ... BUT its a division game ... and 10 points is too much for a division game ...
     
  9. kastofsna120

    kastofsna120 Banned Hammered

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    the reason spreads are so huge this year is because the favorites were winning just about every game earlier in the year. there was that one week where EVERY favorite won. of course, vegas knows the population loves to bet on favorites, so they have to inflate the spreads. that's how san diego san have a 14 point spread on miami, and why miami can be favored by 9 over the jets. remember: the spread is there to get vegas money, not to predict the outcome of the game
     
  10. Ross

    Ross Trouble Shooter

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    too many points imo. 7 points max...
     
  11. aboome

    aboome Rhode Island PHIN Fan

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    I SECOUND THAT:D
     
  12. Gadsden86

    Gadsden86 #1 Oronde Gadsden & Cameron Wake Fan

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    i just wana see ronnie get 100 yards rushing.....:)
     
  13. NYCphan

    NYCphan Stuck in Jetsville

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    For all the apparent progress over the past few weeks, that's one thing this team still hasn't done, and needs to: dominate someone and finish them off comfortably. Oakland kept getting chances to climb back in it, for instance.

    I suppose you could say that SD should have been more comfortable, without the Ronnie fumble, and their last TD was close to junk points, though not quite.

    Still, it'd be nice to see them get up on a team early and just keep the game under control throughout the second half.

    Don't know about 50-0, though...
     
  14. ROSCO P.C. JR

    ROSCO P.C. JR Banned Hammered

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    the mor you are alive ! where the hell you've been son ? i agree i hope se give the jets a dose of ricky , a dose of chambers and a double dose of randy . i hope randy has a breakout game.
     
  15. BwanaZulia

    BwanaZulia Broadway Joe

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    Come on, 9 points!

    Have you SEEN our 4th string QB and our 3rd string RB behind our second string o-line?

    They are AWESOME!

    Man, you guys better watch out, here comes BOLLYWOOD!

    BZ
     
  16. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Premium Member

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    HAH! Bollywood.

    Yeah I dont know if I would take the -9 line for us...I mean this IS still a division game.

    What I think is that the market is reflecting that there doesn't seem much reason to think the Dolphins will have trouble finding motivation for this game, given the manner in which the Jets beat the Phins in the first game. I mean, all of the players were embarrassed because they knew they should have won. The coaches were so embarrassed over their insufficient game planning that they apologized to the players. This is a division rival and the Jets beat us the first time around, so the Dolphins players should really be focused on getting revenge...not necessarily on how good we are and how poor they are.

    If I had to guess why the big line despite the trend as Awsi putting it of sub-.500 teams never covering a huge spread, I would say it's that the market feels that the chances of the Jets coming away with a sweep over any division opponent are somewhere at like 100 to 1.
     
  17. Phin-o-rama

    Phin-o-rama FinHeaven VIP

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    i see no difference than whats normally on the field
     
  18. Samphin

    Samphin Dolphins Homer

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    :vault:
     
  19. finfan54

    finfan54 A True Fan Donator

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    All I know is that Bollinger is in trouble. Martin is gone. No PB center. Zach is loving life. And Linehan on the sideline is the move of the year for us.
     
  20. BwanaZulia

    BwanaZulia Broadway Joe

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    Well, to be fair, Martin was gone last game and we still did ok.

    BZ
     
  21. finfan75

    finfan75 Starter

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    Heres to you losing $40.

    :jetssuck:
     
  22. kcbrown

    kcbrown Life is what we make it. Donator

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    Bollinger sucks (right now at least)...no way a young qb comes in on this D and beats the Fins!

    Go Fins!!
     
  23. dominizzo

    dominizzo CAMERON EARTH WAKE

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    Miami 34 JEts !7
     
  24. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

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    The Dolphins will definitely be motivated for this game. Coming off a winning streak and against a hated division rival that has beaten us several times in a row will be plenty of juice.

    I didn't say sub.500 teams never cover the spreads of -6 or higher at home. Just that the overall percentage is low, below 40%. That's very significant by wagering standards where the edges are slight.

    That angle is one of hundreds I have in my Excel workbooks. It's a simple one so I use it without tweaking. Many newcomer gamblers don't understand the value of small edges and always try to turn a 60% system into 75% or 80%. But that's stupid. First of all, you're shrinking the sample size by definition so that means the historical basis is less reliable. And even if you turn a system that projects to 15-10 over the course of a year into something that projects to 6-2, that's actually negative units. A 15-10 record equates to +4 units while 6-2 equates to +3.8 units. Plus since you have a theoretical advantage you want to be betting MORE games, not less. Volume and an edge. It's like if someone will give you a 10% edge on picking heads over tails every time. Naturally you want to keep flipping nonstop all day and night to maximize that advantage.

    The Jets game is one I'll bet without great expectation. Like the Jets poster mentioned, their team is playing on short personnel. A problem like that can be magnified on the road. New York will probably show up with high energy level early in the game after winning last week, but if they can't score they may be ground down and not cover. It's just a game I would feel sick if I didn't bet the Jets and they do cover since it fits the system. Over the years when I've tried to outguess the systems and either don't bet or wagered the other way, more often than not it burns me.

    That basic system also works in college basketball, BTW. I call it 875 Flop. You take any college team rated below 75.00 in Jeff Sagarin's power ratings in USA Today, and bet against them if they are home favorites of -8 or higher. It's a long term advantage grind that works best in conference games. You get tons of plays in the small conferences where even the higher rated teams are below 75.00 in the power ratings.
     

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