The only person who knows what is going on is Saban. Confusing the public is part of Saban's master plan.
PhinDude88 said:It seems like we will do one of two things. we will draft one of the QB or trade down and get more picks.
Surferosa said:BTW, it was a very candid interview that King had with Saban. I think we are going to get a lot more press and attention from King in the coming years becuse he really seems to admire Nick (especially since hes a Bellichek protege, which he mentions in every article).
ercin13 said:Hopefully Braylon Edwards assuming we get Ricky back before the draft.
love your avatar... michelle marsh is a minxx. She really is fine.Dudeman said:I really doubt we take a RB. there are too many good RBs that will be available in the later rounds, and Linehan has shown that he can be a miracle worker, and use a RB-by-committee with ease.
I think Saban is gonna do everything he can to trade down, possibly even waiting till 12:29 on draft day to make the trade. Otherwise, I seriously think he's gonna take a QB. unfortunately, neither Merriman or DJ are worth #2 overall
BrazForPhins said:everyone says the same and everybody has no clue about it
ckparrothead said:I mean, no doubt a runningback would by no means be a "horrible" pick, because these three RBs are really quite excellent, but I think long term, a QB would impact this team more.
Saban says first round QBs are historically about 30% on target. I think that changes when you're picking in the top 5 or 10. I hate looking at the 2004, 2003, and 2002 drafts of QBs because to be honest its still too soon to evaluate them. But, in the 10 drafts going back from 2001, there were 15 QBs taken top 15. David Klingler, Rick Mirer, Heath Shuler, Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, and Cade McNown were the obvious busts. Drew Bledsoe, Trent Dilfer, and Kerry Collins are all up in the air as far as the "bust" term goes, but it should be noted that all three have played in Super Bowls, and Dilfer actually won one. Then you have Steve McNair, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, and Mike Vick who are most definitely all-star type QBs. It should also be noted taht McNair and McNabb have super bowl appearances under their belt too. It perhaps also should be noted that Pennington was taken 18 overall, just missed my "top 15" cut-off, and he's also a pretty darn good QB. Was this a fluke 10 year patch? I don't think so. As things stand with the 2004, 2003, and 2002 classes, I think it's obvious Harrington is about to fizzle out and go the way of Couch, Carr is having a very unexciting, mixed-review "Bledsoe" type career so far, Leftwich and Palmer have both shown some serious promise, Roethlisberger looks like a stud, and we don't know jack squat about Manning and Rivers yet. Looks like about the same breakdown as the previous 10 years to me, if not better.
So, I think recent history shows that yeah, you run about a 50/50 chance of getting the wrong QB in the wrong situation and he ends up absolutely sucking. But, you also run about a 1/3rd or better chance that your guy turns out to be an absolute stud, and about a 50/50 chance overall or better of finding a QB who is at least capable of directing a Super Bowl caliber team.
As much as people lament how much of a crapshoot it is, and lament how awful it would be to waste a pick and end up with a Ryan Leaf, taking a QB in the top half of round 1 still remains the best chance in all of football at finding a stud quarterback. Take one in round 2 or 3 and your chances go from 50% to like, 6%.
Is that risk worth taking? That's up to the coach, how important the QB position is to his team. There is some credibility to the theories that when you have a QB that is TOO good, that takes up too much cap room and has too big a role in the offense, you put too many eggs in one basket and you don't win that super bowl.