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So Parker Might Not Play This Week Either

I understand your point. However, ratios can have a large variance using a small sample size. Being near the bottom in total plays is a small sample size. If they ran more plays then your ratio can change quickly. If they were closer to the avg per team and still had the same ratio then I’d agree with your analysis.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/play-selection.html?sort=numplays
You are still missing the point and IMO not understanding or using statistics properly.
I understand your point. However, ratios can have a large variance using a small sample size. Being near the bottom in total plays is a small sample size. If they ran more plays then your ratio can change quickly. If they were closer to the avg per team and still had the same ratio then I’d agree with your analysis.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/play-selection.html?sort=numplays

I think you are missing the point still.

1. First, for the purposes of this point, the sample size is NOT the number of plays run by each team. It is about the choice made by the team to run or pass. All teams except for the Thursday night game, have the sample sample size of n=2.

But let's address your concern about sample size "variance" within this two game stretch. Even if the Dolphins are ranked "low" at 29th in plays run with 116 plays, the average number of plays they ran compared to the average is only six plays a game. That doesn't look like a "large variance" to me. (See the first histogram)


2. The purpose of ratios is to compare numbers when the sample size is not exactly the same. To your point, the Dolphins ran fewer plays. To my point, that was a CHOICE, not a random statistic. Because the Dolphins ran more as a percentage and ran fewer plays - your use of totals is, IMO, not a complete indicator of how effective the strategy is or how good the passing game is including receivers. As a fan I see areas for improvement but overall - if you look at passing YPA, we do not look bad for this stage of our development. One point that we hear time and again is how our passing is padded in "garbage time". We have had none of these situations this year. We are tied with Pittsburgh for 10th in YPA so I would say that overall the effectiveness of the passing game is not bad. (See the second histogram)


3. In summary:
* We ran fewer plays, we pass less often so it's not unreasonable to expect smaller "totals".

* The sample size variance that you were concerned about for using ratios is not large - six plays from the average run by the Dolphins less per game. And again, this was a CHOICE by the OC.

* When we do pass we get a pretty good YPA. This indicates to me that something is "right".

upload_2018-9-22_12-41-22.pngupload_2018-9-22_12-40-42.png
 
You are still missing the point and IMO not understanding or using statistics properly.


I think you are missing the point still.

1. First, for the purposes of this point, the sample size is NOT the number of plays run by each team. It is about the choice made by the team to run or pass. All teams except for the Thursday night game, have the sample sample size of n=2.

But let's address your concern about sample size "variance" within this two game stretch. Even if the Dolphins are ranked "low" at 29th in plays run with 116 plays, the average number of plays they ran compared to the average is only six plays a game. That doesn't look like a "large variance" to me. (See the first histogram)


2. The purpose of ratios is to compare numbers when the sample size is not exactly the same. To your point, the Dolphins ran fewer plays. To my point, that was a CHOICE, not a random statistic. Because the Dolphins ran more as a percentage and ran fewer plays - your use of totals is, IMO, not a complete indicator of how effective the strategy is or how good the passing game is including receivers. As a fan I see areas for improvement but overall - if you look at passing YPA, we do not look bad for this stage of our development. One point that we hear time and again is how our passing is padded in "garbage time". We have had none of these situations this year. We are tied with Pittsburgh for 10th in YPA so I would say that overall the effectiveness of the passing game is not bad. (See the second histogram)


3. In summary:
* We ran fewer plays, we pass less often so it's not unreasonable to expect smaller "totals".

* The sample size variance that you were concerned about for using ratios is not large - six plays from the average run by the Dolphins less per game. And again, this was a CHOICE by the OC.

* When we do pass we get a pretty good YPA. This indicates to me that something is "right".

View attachment 13769View attachment 13768

Love your structure. Great looking graphs too.

Here’s what I mean. Will try to keep it simple.

You said run pass ratio right? Miami is at 60 runs to 56 pass. A ratio of 60:56 or 1.07. If they have 6 more plays and all 6 are pass then it changes quickly (.96) because the overall sample size is small. That’s what I mean by balance and the ratio changing quickly.

If you’re merely talking about passing plays to total plays then it’s 56 passes on 116 plays for a rate of 48%. 1 major garbage time game could be enough to get them closer to the league avg only 2 games played (small sample size). If they pass 40 times on 58 plays this week then they jump 7% to 55%.
 
Love your structure. Great looking graphs too.

Here’s what I mean. Will try to keep it simple.

You said run pass ratio right? Miami is at 60 runs to 56 pass. A ratio of 60:56 or 1.07. If they have 6 more plays and all 6 are pass then it changes quickly (.96) because the overall sample size is small. That’s what I mean by balance and the ratio changing quickly.

If you’re merely talking about passing plays to total plays then it’s 56 passes on 116 plays for a rate of 48%. 1 major garbage time game could be enough to get them closer to the league avg only 2 games played (small sample size). If they pass 40 times on 58 plays this week then they jump 7% to 55%.
Anything could happen but were are discussing what did happen and evaluation of the passing game based on that, yes?
 
Cliffs Notes Please!!!!

Train A leaves a train station at 8AM traveling east at 60 miles per hour and meets Train B in Tennessee traveling west that left 10 hours before. How fast is Train B going?
 
Maybe Train B is going 80 MPH. The way it is lately. But hope the team goes 3-0!
 
Ugh, this WR group is near the bottom of the league in yards, ypc and TDs. Why do people have this perception that they’re any good? Now, this poster isn’t only talking about the WRs. But I keep hearing similar things or that this WR group is really good. Yes, Wilson made a nice hesitation move that bought him enough time and space to turn the corner. Grant made a couple nice plays. Stills with his TDs is a nice start. But near the bottom as a group statistically. That means other teams are making more plays at WR, meaning when compared to others they’re not that good. I just think it’s the bias on this board and for those who only watch the Dolphins, then you’re not seeing the whole picture.

2 games is sample size enough to say our WRs are not that good?

I understand your point. However, ratios can have a large variance using a small sample size. Being near the bottom in total plays is a small sample size. If they ran more plays then your ratio can change quickly. If they were closer to the avg per team and still had the same ratio then I’d agree with your analysis.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/play-selection.html?sort=numplays

2 games is NOT sample size enough to make an argument about how the offense is balanced?

Funny because there's a bigger sample size for offensive plays than there is for pass attempts...
 
2 games is sample size enough to say our WRs are not that good?



2 games is NOT sample size enough to make an argument about how the offense is balanced?

Funny because there's a bigger sample size for offensive plays than there is for pass attempts...

WRs aren’t that good based on their experience and production in the NFL.
 
I think 2 games is long enough to understand that we have some limitations in that wr corp. that only dvp can offset.

But heck we have limitations in that tight end corp. that only he can offset.
 
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