Saw this on some site talking about betting odds. Seems to fit the Dolphin history also:
“
Trends to know: The Dolphins are coming off a 34-33 win over the Patriots as 8.5-point underdogs. Oddsmakers aren’t giving Miami much credit for their miracle win.
In the past five seasons, teams that won their previous game as a touchdown or greater underdog and then are getting 7 or more points in their next game have gone 1-18 straight up and 4-15 against the spread...”
So when a big underdog wins and then is a big underdog the next week... es no bueno.
Here’s hoping we shock not the country, just the Miami fan base!
That's interesting. Overall trends like that are much more valid than team specific trends.
I'd have to check to see if it holds up retreating further. No matter how impressive that sounds, 19 games is not much of a sample. I remember when I started looking at NFL situational trends I didn't feel comfortable unless it held at least 100 examples.
Also, the road/home is important. I would never take the Dolphins if they were a 7 point home underdog this week. That would kick in the angle of a team winning outright as home underdog and then home underdog the following game. It is a terrible situation in pro and college football, pro and college basketball. When the Dolphins defeated the Bears as home underdog and then were home underdog again a week later, it set up a poor situational spot and the effort level of both teams played out that way. Detroit was forewarned and Miami was flat.
Winning as home underdog then large road underdog is not nearly as negative, because you are now getting the bonus points atop the power rating margin. If Miami were home to Minnesota this week the spread might be +2.5 or thereabouts. Not nearly as attractive as the +8 I took Monday night, and now +7.
Of the top of my head, the Bills contributed to your stat by defeating the Vikings as huge 17 point underdog early in the season, and then getting wiped out as large underdog at Green Bay a week later. That's a rookie quarterback. Many negative trends attach to rookie quarterbacks. That's why I have a separate category for them. Teams that are big underdogs multiple weeks in a row sometimes have rookie quarterbacks.
I'm sure some situational bettors will have Minnesota this week. Lots of angles try to identify letdown spots. But I have more confidence in basic categorization. At the end of the season when I check how all the Crowd teams fared as home favorites of 4 points or more and especially 6 points or more, that bottom line is going to be terrible, as always.
Minnesota this week will be within that sample. If they defeat me I have no problem with it. Overall you can't go wrong challenging .500 or worse teams to cover large numbers at home. The teams covering those large spreads the second time around are frequently going to be Cream teams. That's an entirely different story.
