J-off's Sideways Board For Miami | Page 9 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

J-off's Sideways Board For Miami

Slimm had it right when he said that Chris Grier strikes him as a guy that doesn't want to have to answer hard questions in the press conference after the pick. There's good and bad to this, I suppose. I don't personally say it as a compliment.

Above all Chris Grier is a survivor. He has been in Miami for a very long time and worked his way up the ladder through a number of failed regimes, without ever having reached too far or gotten tossed out with others. There's a reason. He doesn't stick his neck out and he doesn't give you anything easy to criticize.

We know, because we have the sort of friends who have seen it firsthand, that Chris Grier hates draft trading. The only trades he tends to like are ones where the "chart value" are clearly in Miami's favor. Because of that tendency he was actually a supporter of moving up in the 1st round for Dion Jordan. If you recall, Reggie McKenzie traded the #3 pick in exchange for the #12 and #42 picks, which is ridiculously below "chart value". Chris Grier was a supporter of the move because of that. Otherwise he seems to have never met a trade up OR a trade down that he loves. At least, not in the early stage of the draft. He would rather just sit tight and take the highest, safest pick available on his board, emphasis on safest.

I think there's a fundamental misunderstanding of risk at play here because you can and will get burned for going with the "safest" picks, just as Miami got burned for taking Charles Harris in 2017. The TOP risk in the draft, at any stage, is the risk that the player you are taking just isn't any good. It exceeds injury risk. It exceeds character risk. It exceeds all risks combined. Even in the 1st round, you will discover over any length of time that somewhere near half of the players you took just can't play professional football in a compelling way.

Yet you often hear people dismiss this risk and openly take a player they know to be inferior on the basis of some marginal increase in injury risk or character risk. Sometimes when that injury risk is not marginal, when that character risk is pretty solid, this could be the right thing to do. But very often it's reflective of a lack of proper understanding for the sources of risk.

I actually have a hard time believing that Chris Grier is ever going to find an elite level franchise quarterback, because of his conservatism. I believe taking a stab at an elite passer is ALWAYS going to come off looking extremely risky. You often have to move heaven and earth to go up and take the guy, and you're never looking at a guy without flaws. The risk-averse approach will also more often than not net you a guy like Ryan Tannehill, rather than a guy like Russell Wilson.

If Chris Grier is ever going to land an elite quarterback for this team, he will have to somehow Forrest Gump his way into it. Which admittedly he may do, if Miami go 2-14 this year.

If I take any HOPE in anything, it's knowing that the Dolphins front office under Chris Grier rated both Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray very, very highly. So maybe they at least have the evaluation side of it right. But I still have a tough time imagining Grier ever sticking his neck out far enough to get the slam dunk quarterback that looks like Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray, because it just ends up price prohibitive.
 
Above all Chris Grier is a survivor. He has been in Miami for a very long time and worked his way up the ladder through a number of failed regimes, without ever having reached too far or gotten tossed out with others. There's a reason. He doesn't stick his neck out and he doesn't give you anything easy to criticize.

I think there's a fundamental misunderstanding of risk at play here because you can and will get burned for going with the "safest" picks, just as Miami got burned for taking Charles Harris in 2017. The TOP risk in the draft, at any stage, is the risk that the player you are taking just isn't any good. It exceeds injury risk. It exceeds character risk. It exceeds all risks combined. Even in the 1st round, you will discover over any length of time that somewhere near half of the players you took just can't play professional football in a compelling way.


What I've bolded here should be required reading. I don't think I've ever read two better paragraphs from you. It's utterly and thoroughly what people like Grier need to understand about drafting. I still don't know how they ended up talking themselves into taking Laremy Tunsil.
 
Excellent points all around. I feel strongly about the pick, because I felt the 13th pick had to do one of two things: 1) add an elite talent/guy who should have gone Top 5. 2) add a Top 20 player who will directly help the future QB.

The Offense is a time-sensitive thing. The D doesn't even have to think about being good until 2021.
 
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Excellent points all around. I feel strongly about the pick, because I felt the 13th pick had to do one of two things: 1) add an elite talent/guy who should have gone Top 5. 2) add a Top 20 player who will directly help the future QB.

The Offense is a time-sensitive thing. The D doesn't have even think about being good until 2021.


Excellent, excellent post. I completely agree with this. They had an opportunity to take legitimately great prospects with added risk that were likely to pay off handsomely in the long run. And/or help the future quarterback. The defense is irrelevant with the QB room Miami has. It just doesn't matter.

If I were a diehard fan I would feel exactly the same way you described in this post. Just excellent. I just don't give a sh^t what they do when you get right down to it.
 
Yea gotta agree you fellas. Which begs the question can he be a effective GM for us. I get the suck for next year's QB idea just not sold it's the answer that's the answer for our woes. IMO the GM stirs the pot, then the coach then the QB . Especially if you want to win it all.
 
What I've bolded here should be required reading. I don't think I've ever read two better paragraphs from you. It's utterly and thoroughly what people like Grier need to understand about drafting. I still don't know how they ended up talking themselves into taking Laremy Tunsil.

Because (to me) there's nothing risky or potentially embarrassing about taking a player everyone thought was going #1 all the way down at pick #13. That might have been the easiest press conference he's ever conducted.
 
Excellent points all around. I feel strongly about the pick, because I felt the 13th pick had to do one of two things: 1) add an elite talent/guy who should have gone Top 5. 2) add a Top 20 player who will directly help the future QB.

The Offense is a time-sensitive thing. The D doesn't even have to think about being good until 2021.

That's a really interesting point about the timing. Kudos.
 
Excellent points all around. I feel strongly about the pick, because I felt the 13th pick had to do one of two things: 1) add an elite talent/guy who should have gone Top 5. 2) add a Top 20 player who will directly help the future QB.

The Offense is a time-sensitive thing. The D doesn't even have to think about being good until 2021.
I feel somewhat the same way but we can end up with a Risner - McCoy - Taylot- Ford etc. any of whom can help the 2020 QB
 
Excellent, excellent post. I completely agree with this. They had an opportunity to take legitimately great prospects with added risk that were likely to pay off handsomely in the long run. And/or help the future quarterback. The defense is irrelevant with the QB room Miami has. It just doesn't matter.

If I were a diehard fan I would feel exactly the same way you described in this post. Just excellent. I just don't give a sh^t what they do when you get right down to it.

I think we can argue over Wilkins- Bradbury- Simmons..
If Miami ends up with Wilkins/ McCoy, or Risner or the Michigan DE, I would argue they will have done well.

Only way Miami could’ve pulled off a spectacular night would’ve been a trade down 2-5 spots, obtained a 3rd Rd pick and taken Simmons - Bradbury or Wilkins.
So question is:
1. Was tradedown available?
2. Did Grier have the cajones?
 
Excellent points all around. I feel strongly about the pick, because I felt the 13th pick had to do one of two things: 1) add an elite talent/guy who should have gone Top 5. 2) add a Top 20 player who will directly help the future QB.

The Offense is a time-sensitive thing. The D doesn't even have to think about being good until 2021.

Honestly I'm at the point where I can't be picky and I'm just glad we got a player that's generally considered to be a guy worth a first round pick. I completely understand your point though.
 
Excellent, excellent post. I completely agree with this. They had an opportunity to take legitimately great prospects with added risk that were likely to pay off handsomely in the long run. And/or help the future quarterback. The defense is irrelevant with the QB room Miami has. It just doesn't matter.

If I were a diehard fan I would feel exactly the same way you described in this post. Just excellent. I just don't give a sh^t what they do when you get right down to it.

Appreciate you, Slimm. With Rosen on board, it would have been nice to have Lindstrom or Dillard to help solidify the OL. I really like what Miami did Day 2. I'm not a huge Rosen fan, but I think he has a legit shot in the right situation, and his skillset seems to pair well with a NE-style offense. But, I'd want him to have the best possible chance to succeed in 2019, and it feels like it's going to be another year where he just takes a beating - if they play him over Fitzpatrick.

Maybe the plan is to sit him, draft a QB early in 2020 (hopefully Tua) and have Rosen as a high-end, inexpensive backup, who may have better trade value in a couple years. It feels like Miami is really trying and getting a lot more right, but I feel like they're off on some key details. We'll see . . .
 
I’m a fan of the Rosen trade. Insane value with minimal risk, especially when coupled with the initial trade back. Sure, I would rather have given up the 3rd and received the 2020 5th instead of trading it away but it doesn’t change the value proposition very much.

I give the front office an A+ for process. Gotta get a prospect at QB who has a chance to be the man every season until you find one.

This doesn’t preclude them for drafting another QB next season. Maybe they won’t, but the way this front office has operated has not been convential. So, I think it’s more than fair to give this front office the benefit of the doubt until they prove they don’t deserve it.

Also, if the Pats took Rosen with the last pick in the 2nd round, I would have been so pissed (and worried they found the heir-apparent to Brady).
 
Wilkins was a good, solid, safe pick. Alongside Taylor is strong. Building from the inside out makes a ton of sense. Flores is obviously defensive minded so good to see they’re working together. Wasn’t one of my top 5 choices there but I was extremely relieved they didn’t take Haskins.

Extremely excited that they maximized their 2nd rd pick. Taking a long term growth strategy is the key to building a healthy portfolio. Getting a 2020 2nd and Rosen! That’s brilliant. Value and maximizing opportunities is how you get ahead and sustain success. I’m hearing a ton of negativity from finatics too and that makes me like it even more. Been supporting that strategy for years....long overdue!

I’d like to see Rosen start mid season. Not too early that he struggles in a new system, gets blamed for their failure, and ridden out of town. But early enough that they get enough data to make an informed decision going into 2020.

Glad they addressed OL. A lot to like about Deiter. Wisc lineman have a rich tradition of success. Love his versatility along the line. PFF grades as top 3 against both the run and pass.
 
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