If We Pick At 13 Next Year, We Won't Be Able To Move To 1 | Page 3 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

If We Pick At 13 Next Year, We Won't Be Able To Move To 1

I agree with the OP, @erralyn those are all very real possibilities and each with its own downside.

I might add a fourth possibility, that Rosen is just promising enough to get us to invest in him, never quite get over the hump and never galvanize the team, and we miss the 2020 QB draft and 2021 QB draft and don't realize until too late that he simply isn't the answer. If this is the case, we may indeed do poorly and get high picks … then not draft a QB. Or, we may win 9 or 10 games, but always be around the edge of the wildcard spot with no real chance to win playoff games. Call that mediocre if you want, but it may be the most dangerous option of all, because it lasts longer.

Unless Rosen changes his approach and mindset, becomes a team-first guy and a hard worker, he will undermine what the coaches are trying to build with all these new young players. That is the real cost we have to consider. How Rosen reacts to this trade is paramount. He got mad when he was passed over in the draft last year … but he didn't change. Now he needs to change.
Get back to work! LOL
 
We absolutely have the firepower with 2 seconds and 2 3rds next year to go anywhere in the draft not to mention there will be Tua/Fromm/Herbert and I believe Jordan Love will join them after next college season. I’d like to see us play Rosen and take a qb in the 1st either way. Make them compete in 2020 and create a Drew Brees/ Phillip Rivers situation. If Rosen doesn’t blow us out of the water hand the keys to the rookie and trade Rosen for a 3rd/ 4th maybe more depending how he plays.
 
I think Ross has finally realized it's going to take a few years to fix this trainwreck and put us into the position where we're once again considered a top NFL franchise. That's why the 5-year contract for Flores. As long as the fans don't revolt and accept what we're doing, it will work. Not gonna happen overnight, we didn't wreck it in only one season so we're not gonna properly fix it in one.


Where you and I disagree is that I think they acquired all that 2020 draft capitol to hedge their qb bets on rosen.

Not look to 2021 as plan a but as 2020 ammo if need be to go get their “my job depends on this player” qb.
 
I wasn't high on Murray. But he is exciting.

I don't know enough about Herbert or Fromm to weigh in.

Someone off the current radar who is elite will emerge (maybe more than one).

I think I like Lawrence as a prospect better than Tua (based on the little I've seen).

Worst case scenario imo.

I dont want a flash in the pan, one year wonder coming in here.

Get a kid with a proven track record. Guys that have been touted since HS. But most importantly, a kid that has actually run an offense for more than one year.

That was my biggest gripe with Murray and Haskins this year.

Hopefully Rosen makes all this talk a moot point.
 
Hands down on Lawrence over Tua. Lawrence will be revered as highly, if not more so than Andrew Luck was. Mark my words. He has Luck's intelligence and is a more gifted athlete.
The 2020 draft is the sweet spot for QB's IMHO.

There will be 3 guys, and at this point there isn't even a known pecking order. Tua is currently the highest rated and the best leader. Fromm is the most accurate and quickest thinker. Herbert has the most upside but hasn't put it all together yet. I rate them Fromm, Tua, Herbert, but I think the Dolphins probably rate them Herbert, Tua Fromm. How we all rate them next year is up for grabs, but all three will be good. In 2020 there will not be very many teams tanking to compete with us … they may lose, but not so much intentionally.

In 2021, there will be 1 prospect who is head and shoulders above the rest, Joey ….. errrrrr I mean Trevor Lawrence. Just like the Suck for Luck sweepstakes, there will be several teams tanking to get him, and 4 wins definitely means you miss out. Not sure whether there will be a good Plan B by then or not. IMHO, the window appears to be 2020. We miss that window, who knows how long until we have another one. The Dolphins have only drafted 3 QB's in the 1st round in franchise history, Bob Griese (HoF), Dan Marino (HoF), and Ryan Tannehill. We have failed a lot in the other rounds.

If we don't get a QB in 2020, absolutely, I'm all in to try to get Trevor Lawrence. But that is unlikely because there will be a lot of competition. Personally, I'd prefer to position ourselves for the 2020 window, when the odds of getting a good QB are highest.
 
This is why we must determine who will be around for the long term with this team and trade the rest for draft capital.
Reshad Jones
TJ McDonald
Kenyan Drake
Leremy Tunsil
Xavien Howard
If you do not intend to extend these guys, then you must trade them this season while they have value.
 
Where you and I disagree is that I think they acquired all that 2020 draft capitol to hedge their qb bets on rosen.

Not look to 2021 as plan a but as 2020 ammo if need be to go get their “my job depends on this player” qb.
What I'm saying is it now affords them an extra year to make that decision. By having a dinosaur in Fitzpatrick for 2 years, you are forcing your hand to have to pick a QB in 2020. With the youth of Rosen and the low cost of keeping him, you are not forced into that decision next year. They have basically given themselves an option for next year. They still may take a QB if they think the right guy is there, but if it doesn't work out for whatever reason, we're not sitting there next year being forced to take a QB because we don't have one.
 
We absolutely have the firepower with 2 seconds and 2 3rds next year to go anywhere in the draft not to mention there will be Tua/Fromm/Herbert and I believe Jordan Love will join them after next college season. I’d like to see us play Rosen and take a qb in the 1st either way. Make them compete in 2020 and create a Drew Brees/ Phillip Rivers situation. If Rosen doesn’t blow us out of the water hand the keys to the rookie and trade Rosen for a 3rd/ 4th maybe more depending how he plays.

Just to clarify why I specific pick #1, I'm not interested in anyone beyond the top QB prospect in the draft next year, whoever that may be. Most likely it will be Tua. For those who think a couple 2nd and 3rd rounds picks will get us from mid 1st round to the top overall pick, all I can say is check out the draft value chart. It's not the last word but it's a good starting point, and the exchange rate to move up that far is way, WAY off.

We've been waiting for a franchise QB since Marino. If we go after them in 2020, then we need to go after THE top prospect. Don't settle. If we go after them in 2021, then we need to be bad for 2 straight seasons in order to be able to get that top prospect instead of just one.

That's why I view the mediocrity option as extremely dangerous.
 
What I'm saying is it now affords them an extra year to make that decision. By having a dinosaur in Fitzpatrick for 2 years, you are forcing your hand to have to pick a QB in 2020. With the youth of Rosen and the low cost of keeping him, you are not forced into that decision next year. They have basically given themselves an option for next year. They still may take a QB if they think the right guy is there, but if it doesn't work out for whatever reason, we're not sitting there next year being forced to take a QB because we don't have one.


I agree but I think the clock is ticking on Grier. And there’s no guarantee Lawrence even comes out in 2021.

So if I’m Ross I’m gonna put a lot of pressure on next year. Who is the qb you ride or die with Grier? Rosen or 2020 draft pick qb.

I’m not gonna let him just keep moving the needle to avoid or delay accountability
 
Just to clarify why I specific pick #1, I'm not interested in anyone beyond the top QB prospect in the draft next year, whoever that may be. Most likely it will be Tua. For those who think a couple 2nd and 3rd rounds picks will get us from mid 1st round to the top overall pick, all I can say is check out the draft value chart. It's not the last word but it's a good starting point, and the exchange rate to move up that far is way, WAY off.

We've been waiting for a franchise QB since Marino. If we go after them in 2020, then we need to go after THE top prospect. Don't settle. If we go after them in 2021, then we need to be bad for 2 straight seasons in order to be able to get that top prospect instead of just one.

That's why I view the mediocrity option as extremely dangerous.


That’s very true. Everyone keeps talking about all these draft assets we have. You wont have any if you are trying to make moves from even 8 to get to the universal top grade QBs in tbe last decade. Let alone 12.

What you got right now won’t even be enough. You gonna have to pony up more.

These teams know when a evaluation wise can’t miss qb is staring them in the face and the value that offers them in trade and leverage. And good luck getting one to trade out should that top pick go to a qb needy team. Won’t happen.
 
Just to clarify why I specific pick #1, I'm not interested in anyone beyond the top QB prospect in the draft next year, whoever that may be. Most likely it will be Tua. For those who think a couple 2nd and 3rd rounds picks will get us from mid 1st round to the top overall pick, all I can say is check out the draft value chart. It's not the last word but it's a good starting point, and the exchange rate to move up that far is way, WAY off.

We've been waiting for a franchise QB since Marino. If we go after them in 2020, then we need to go after THE top prospect. Don't settle. If we go after them in 2021, then we need to be bad for 2 straight seasons in order to be able to get that top prospect instead of just one.

That's why I view the mediocrity option as extremely dangerous.
It's been dangerous around here for the past 20 years, we should be used to it by now...
 
Just to clarify why I specific pick #1, I'm not interested in anyone beyond the top QB prospect in the draft next year, whoever that may be. Most likely it will be Tua. For those who think a couple 2nd and 3rd rounds picks will get us from mid 1st round to the top overall pick, all I can say is check out the draft value chart. It's not the last word but it's a good starting point, and the exchange rate to move up that far is way, WAY off.

We've been waiting for a franchise QB since Marino. If we go after them in 2020, then we need to go after THE top prospect. Don't settle. If we go after them in 2021, then we need to be bad for 2 straight seasons in order to be able to get that top prospect instead of just one.

That's why I view the mediocrity option as extremely dangerous.

Sure we can have this conversation on what if this what if that. However if Rosen and Flores leads us to a mid round pick with this roster, I don’t think we need to worry about a qb or coach and we’ll probably win the Super Bowl in the next 2-3 years because 7-8 wins with this roster means we have found a miracle worker and once we complete the defense with our abundance of picks next year and 125 million in cap then we will be a force to reckon with. Smart money is on they still have a top 10 pick and as long as they are should have the firepower to trade to #1 if deemed necessary.
 
On another note am I tbe only one who thinks Grier drafts largely to avoid accountability? Sure feels like it to me.

Safe and steady
 
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