18-20 Record | Page 4 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

18-20 Record

Man, we made it through all the drivel leading up to and throughout the draft and now we have to endure stuff like this until training camp starts.

What's the quote from Mark Twain about using statistics to bolster a weak argument? There are lies, damned lies and statistics.

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Certainly everybody here has a right to their opinions and to voice them.

My opinion is drenched in optimism. It would be hard to argue that Rosen is not the most naturally gifted QB on our roster since Dan. Whether that results in him being our franchise QB for the next 15 years or a 1 year wonder remains to be seen.

Until actual evidence declares otherwise, I will maintain the former of the above two opinions. It's a way to feel hopeful that there's finally a light at the end of a long dark tunnel - especially since none of us have a say in what the staff, who has a pretty good benchmark in Brady, determines. I can't see where everyone isn't hoping for the best.

At this point I will stop debating/arguing/refuting those who disagree. It serves no purpose other than to put a damper on what I consider justified optimism. If any of our esteemed members become negative one-trick ponies to the point of distraction before Rosen even takes the field, I will put them on "ignore" for a month and then reevaluate.
 
College preseason ranking? :lol:

You are really stretching it. :bobdole:

Just showing they had expectations. They weren't met. They were ranked 13th in the preseason rankings in 2015, they finished outside the top 25. Same in 2016, ranked 15-16th in the preseason, they finished way outside the top 25. 2017 they didn't have a top 25 preseason ranking, they finished a magical 6-7 season. Probably didnt meet expectations haha In the pros, he takes over a team that had a 8-8 record in 2017 with Gabbert and Drew Stanton being the triggermen. They finish 3-13 in 2018 with Rosen contributing with a 3-10 record. Again, not meeting expectations. Just saying I see a trend.
 
2005 LSU: 11-2
2006 LSU: 11-2
2007 JaMarcus Russell: How did that trend end up?

I’d much rather focus on the player rather than what his college team did, most of which never made it to the NFL
He should have quit while he was barely ahead but he kept adding to his demise.
 
What a strange thread. By the winning in college rationale all the QBs that came from top programs with winning records should be stars in the NFL. Where are they?
 
Well he was drafted 10th last year and it’s said had he been drafted this year he would’ve been drafted just behind Murray.

If both are true then he’s looked at as being quality.
 
Context that would help these figures would be to consider what was UCLA's anticipated ranking/WL coming into those seasons?

Did he under-perform with a talented team? Did he maximize the offensive output of a minimally talented offense?

Those are more important to me than specific wins and losses.

Good question. College preseason rankings are gold. I can't imagine betting on college sports without it. Everyone fixates on the exceptions while ignoring the incredible accuracy of the totality. Preseason ratings are superior to using year-end results, in terms of forecasting or wagering on bowl games or NCAA tournament games. I discovered that in 1997. Nate Silver uses preseason ratings to put together his NCAA tournament bracket. I bet college basketball all season while using preseason ratings exclusively. Not one result during the season means a darn thing. I wouldn't dream of incorporating a meaningless result into the process. If you are using recent results as a guideline then all you know is exactly what everybody else knows.

Naturally there are doubters. Conventional wisdom dominates and if you want to be popular among the bar stool crowd, just belittle preseason ratings. Meanwhile there are studies like this. I have mentioned this angle since joining this site in 2005:

"The predictive power of the pre-bowl polls is much less than the preseason polls."

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2015/9/10/9295405/college-football-preseason-polls-accuracy

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Anyway, regarding UCLA with Rosen the preseason consensus dropped from 12 in 2015 to 21 in 2016 to 31 in 2017. Those numbers are here:

http://preseason.stassen.com/consensus/2015.html

Mora was accumulating impressive talent early in his UCLA tenure. I loved their roster for a while and mentioned it here. It seemed to peak during the Brett Hundley years and probably caused me to overrate Hundley. After that the roster dipped and Mora took the blame. His classes were still rated decently high, normally 15 to 20ish, but didn't produce that way. Now Chip Kelly is trying to outsmart the star ratings and I don't like his chances. UCLA's incoming class was rated 44th by Rivals in 2019.
 
I believe that was UCLA’s record from 2015-17 When Rosen was under center there, with one bowl appearance in 2015. I think everyone need to temper their exuberance over our new quarterback.

Rosen isn't going to save this franchise. This franchise needs to be saved from the top down. And the 'top' is ownership. People are putting unrealistic expectations on a second year quarterback who is stepping into a lousy situation.

That said, if Rosen develops into a quality quarterback, this was a great trade.
 
No I am a dolphins fan. I just see things differently on how we are going to get back to the top. Rosen to me is not the path. I dont see anything from him that makes me believe he can compete with Luck, Mahomes, Watson, or Mayfield for the next 10 years. Gonna be tough to do it in the AFC unless you got a top shelf QB. We got a guy that hasnt been on a winning team since 2015 or thrown for more than 26 TDs in a season in that same time frame. Just my opinion. Hopefully I am wrong.

If he had thrown 27 TD's would that have altered your opinion? Is there some magic TD number that all great QB's attain to determine they are worthy?
 
If he had thrown 27 TD's would that have altered your opinion? Is there some magic TD number that all great QB's attain to determine they are worthy?

Just saying the team didnt live up to expectations and he didnt exactly light the world on fire either. 59 Tds in 3 years. Not a lot of production at a very big school in a sub par PAC 12. Im honestly surprised he got drafted as high as he did. I know stats and QB records dont tell the whole story but that has followed him into the NFL. His lack of production and his teams under performing are relevant as much as most dont want to hear it.

At some point you have to produce. It cant be all "talent" and potential. because the talent hasnt produce anything yet.
 
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