How Would Josh Rosen Need To Perform In 2019 For You To Forgo Drafting A 1st Round Qb In 2020? | Page 9 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

How Would Josh Rosen Need To Perform In 2019 For You To Forgo Drafting A 1st Round Qb In 2020?

I would argue (for lack of a better word) that the real prize will be the following year in Lawrence.

That would mean the Dolphins having the first pick in 2021 and not a very high pick in 2020 where they would miss out on drafting one of the top QB's.
 
Brett Farve, Aaron Rodgers, are just a couple off the top of my head that took more than 2 years to blossom. Rodgers was drafted in 2005 but didn't become the starter until 2008. Look at his early stats, very unimpressive.
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Now here are the QB's taken in the first rounds of 2006, 2007, 2008 & 2009.
2006
#3: Vince Young (Texas), Tennessee Titans #10: Matt Leinart (USC), Arizona Cardinals #11: Jay Cutler (Vanderbilt), Denver Broncos
2007
#1: JaMarcus Russell (LSU), Oakland Raiders #22: Brady Quinn (Notre Dame), Cleveland Browns
2008
#3: Matt Ryan (Boston College), Atlanta Falcons #18: Joe Flacco (Delaware), Baltimore Ravens
2009
#1: Matthew Stafford (Georgia), Detroit Lions #5: Mark Sanchez (USC), New York Jets #17: Josh Freeman (Kansas State), Tampa Bay Buccaneers
EVERY first QB taken was touted as a "sure thing" same applies to every draft since. There's always the consensus on who the top QB is and many teams and fans froth at the mouth to get him. Looking back do you think the Packers were happy they stuck with their convictions in lieu of taking the next sure thing? I bet they are. It would have been easy for them to jump ship and take the next great one after those early results but they gave it more than a year. There are some decent QB's on that list but none that rise to the level of Aaron Rogers. So many here are ready to toss Rosen overboard and use the example of his first year with the Cardinals as proof he isn't the answer. They're calling him a bust already, and he's only one year removed from his rookie season on a terrible team. They may be right or they may be wrong, only time will tell, but this why you need to stick with him and not panic and take a QB next year. Is Tua the next Rodgers or the next Leinart? No way of knowing until he plays but as history shows the ODDS are he'll be closer to Leinhart than Rodgers in overall results, that's just the odds of it. Every year has its top hyped stud QB in the eyes of the draft prognosticators and fans but very few turn out to be such in the end.
 
is it possible that the fins are waiting for Trevor Lawrence ? he is being touted as a once a generation type QB... if i would have the 1st overall next year i think i would trade it for for lots of picks and the following year draft Trevor Lawrence. i would ride the Rosen bus for the next two years and see then...
No they don't. No FO bypasses one draft to gamble on next year's draft much less gambles on a draft 2 years down the road. An FO like that should be fired on the spot.
 
If they end up with the first overall pick next year, I don't see how they would pass on drafting Tua no matter how Rosen looks this season because that would mean Rosen wasn't that impressive regardless of the talent around him.

Again, I don't think we're going to be that bad. I certainly don't think we are going to be good but I don't think we are going to be abhorrent either. With that being said, I totally agree with you that, barring any ridiculous mitigating circumstances, Rosen would have to be pretty terrible to secure the first pick in the draft again. My Hope in all of this is that Rosen improves greatly but we still end up in position to draft one of the coveted quarterbacks. Then, we can trade down for a king's Ransom and really set us up for a strong 2021.
 
For me it is not about stats so much. It is all about learning and not making mistakes again. There is so much going into a young QBs performance and having the right team around him and the right coaching is just a couple of items on a list which is a mile long.

In a perfect world you sit a rookie for at least a few games if not an entire season. That is the best way for a rookie QB to get acclimated in the NFL and to see the speed of the NFL compared to college. Looking from the outside in gives a young kid the coaching perspective of the game. Even our great Marino sat almost half a season on the bench. If he would have started from game 1 his first season might have been totally different. No matter what great QB you mention they either sat on the bench for a period of time or, if they started right off, struggled for a year or two.

One important thing I want to see is: learn from your mistakes. A future star QB learns quickly from mistakes he made. He also has to have a short term memory. If something goes wrong on one play forget about it and move on. Don't get caught in quicksand. Don't think about mistakes too hard and begin to struggle because he is trying to hard and forces plays.

I want to see our QB to have pocket presence and get better at it. Pocket presence is the beast of things and can prevent a great QB to become great if that pocket presence never develops any further. Sitting behind a vet and watching the game a young QB can see and gauge the time a vet QB has in the pocket and how fast the game is played. If you throw a young QB into the mix from game 1 it probably takes longer and can become a painful process. But besides the physical hurt the mental aspect is important. Is the young QB strong enough not to hear footsteps where none are or will he hear them if he is actually under pressure? A lot of QBs fail at that and never develop that pocket presence, the ability to step up in the pocket, sidestep the pressure or just stand in there patiently until the receiver is open. The game has to gradually slow down for them. The great QBs develop that over time, some do marginally and some never do.

Develop smartness. Learn that throws you made in college will not work in the NFL. Realize that you are playing against CBs who even at their worst were dam good in college and that in college you threw against secondaries whose football career ended after college.

Presnap and postsnap reads: This is probably the most important thing I want to see. In the NFL it is all about scheming, disguising, tricking, confusing. You not only need to know your own playbook you also need to learn the opposing defensive plays. What do they do at certain times with certain personnel on the field? Identify coverages and blitzes presnap and postsnap.

Developing a franchise QB is more than just stats or records. It is more about the intangibles and the mental aspect you do not see on a stat sheet.

I always maintained that Ryan would have been best serve to sit his first season on the bench. He had the tools required but he never grasped the mental aspect or developed the intangibles required. By his own words the year he sat because of injury was enlightening to him. He saw the game from a different perspective. The first 2 or 3 games last year I thought he got it. Statistically maybe not his best games but in those games he looked like a franchise QB operating the offense. But in 5 years playing you develop bad habits you cannot shake anymore. And he reverted.

In a perfect world I have Rosen sit for 3 or 4 games. Watch a vet operate the offense. His first year was horrendous in AZ (some his problems but most of it caused by bad personal surrounding him and poor coaching). The worst what can happen to a young QB like Rosen is get sacked on the first play in game 1 and his thoughts are "oh god, here we go again".
Looking from the outside in he can learn from Fitzpatrick's good plays and bad plays. He can gauge the speed of the game. He can see the problems on OL and their strength. He can listen to coaches making changes. That is extremely valuable.

When it comes to Rosen I have extremely low expectations from a statistical point but I have high hopes for the future. Get that bad taste from year 1 out of his mouth and put him into a position to succeed. Don't throw him to the wolves just because you have a boner for Tua or Lawrence.

People need to have realistic expectations when it comes to developing a franchise QB. The rule of thumb is that you know you have a franchise QB after year 2 in that system. AZ made a super mistake. It could be our blessing.

Even if we end up with the worst record we will not draft Tua or any QB with that pick unless we have seen and are sure that Rosen was stagnant in his development - stats be damned.
 
For me it is not about stats so much. It is all about learning and not making mistakes again. There is so much going into a young QBs performance and having the right team around him and the right coaching is just a couple of items on a list which is a mile long.

In a perfect world you sit a rookie for at least a few games if not an entire season. That is the best way for a rookie QB to get acclimated in the NFL and to see the speed of the NFL compared to college. Looking from the outside in gives a young kid the coaching perspective of the game. Even our great Marino sat almost half a season on the bench. If he would have started from game 1 his first season might have been totally different. No matter what great QB you mention they either sat on the bench for a period of time or, if they started right off, struggled for a year or two.

One important thing I want to see is: learn from your mistakes. A future star QB learns quickly from mistakes he made. He also has to have a short term memory. If something goes wrong on one play forget about it and move on. Don't get caught in quicksand. Don't think about mistakes too hard and begin to struggle because he is trying to hard and forces plays.

I want to see our QB to have pocket presence and get better at it. Pocket presence is the beast of things and can prevent a great QB to become great if that pocket presence never develops any further. Sitting behind a vet and watching the game a young QB can see and gauge the time a vet QB has in the pocket and how fast the game is played. If you throw a young QB into the mix from game 1 it probably takes longer and can become a painful process. But besides the physical hurt the mental aspect is important. Is the young QB strong enough not to hear footsteps where none are or will he hear them if he is actually under pressure? A lot of QBs fail at that and never develop that pocket presence, the ability to step up in the pocket, sidestep the pressure or just stand in there patiently until the receiver is open. The game has to gradually slow down for them. The great QBs develop that over time, some do marginally and some never do.

Develop smartness. Learn that throws you made in college will not work in the NFL. Realize that you are playing against CBs who even at their worst were dam good in college and that in college you threw against secondaries whose football career ended after college.

Presnap and postsnap reads: This is probably the most important thing I want to see. In the NFL it is all about scheming, disguising, tricking, confusing. You not only need to know your own playbook you also need to learn the opposing defensive plays. What do they do at certain times with certain personnel on the field? Identify coverages and blitzes presnap and postsnap.

Developing a franchise QB is more than just stats or records. It is more about the intangibles and the mental aspect you do not see on a stat sheet.

I always maintained that Ryan would have been best serve to sit his first season on the bench. He had the tools required but he never grasped the mental aspect or developed the intangibles required. By his own words the year he sat because of injury was enlightening to him. He saw the game from a different perspective. The first 2 or 3 games last year I thought he got it. Statistically maybe not his best games but in those games he looked like a franchise QB operating the offense. But in 5 years playing you develop bad habits you cannot shake anymore. And he reverted.

In a perfect world I have Rosen sit for 3 or 4 games. Watch a vet operate the offense. His first year was horrendous in AZ (some his problems but most of it caused by bad personal surrounding him and poor coaching). The worst what can happen to a young QB like Rosen is get sacked on the first play in game 1 and his thoughts are "oh god, here we go again".
Looking from the outside in he can learn from Fitzpatrick's good plays and bad plays. He can gauge the speed of the game. He can see the problems on OL and their strength. He can listen to coaches making changes. That is extremely valuable.

When it comes to Rosen I have extremely low expectations from a statistical point but I have high hopes for the future. Get that bad taste from year 1 out of his mouth and put him into a position to succeed. Don't throw him to the wolves just because you have a boner for Tua or Lawrence.

People need to have realistic expectations when it comes to developing a franchise QB. The rule of thumb is that you know you have a franchise QB after year 2 in that system. AZ made a super mistake. It could be our blessing.

Even if we end up with the worst record we will not draft Tua or any QB with that pick unless we have seen and are sure that Rosen was stagnant in his development - stats be damned.

I believe the front office would draft Tua if they have the worst record because they would probably view him as an upgrade over Rosen. It would be no different than what Arizona did this year by drafting Murray with the first pick after moving up to take Josh Rosen last year. I get there was a coaching change in Arizona, but if they didn't feel Murray has the potential to be better than Rosen, they wouldn't have drafted him and would have kept Rosen. The Dolphins could be in that position next year.
 
Brett Farve, Aaron Rodgers, are just a couple off the top of my head that took more than 2 years to blossom. Rodgers was drafted in 2005 but didn't become the starter until 2008. Look at his early stats, very unimpressive.
View attachment 20721
Now here are the QB's taken in the first rounds of 2006, 2007, 2008 & 2009.
2006
#3: Vince Young (Texas), Tennessee Titans #10: Matt Leinart (USC), Arizona Cardinals #11: Jay Cutler (Vanderbilt), Denver Broncos
2007
#1: JaMarcus Russell (LSU), Oakland Raiders #22: Brady Quinn (Notre Dame), Cleveland Browns
2008
#3: Matt Ryan (Boston College), Atlanta Falcons #18: Joe Flacco (Delaware), Baltimore Ravens
2009
#1: Matthew Stafford (Georgia), Detroit Lions #5: Mark Sanchez (USC), New York Jets #17: Josh Freeman (Kansas State), Tampa Bay Buccaneers
EVERY first QB taken was touted as a "sure thing" same applies to every draft since. There's always the consensus on who the top QB is and many teams and fans froth at the mouth to get him. Looking back do you think the Packers were happy they stuck with their convictions in lieu of taking the next sure thing? I bet they are. It would have been easy for them to jump ship and take the next great one after those early results but they gave it more than a year. There are some decent QB's on that list but none that rise to the level of Aaron Rogers. So many here are ready to toss Rosen overboard and use the example of his first year with the Cardinals as proof he isn't the answer. They're calling him a bust already, and he's only one year removed from his rookie season on a terrible team. They may be right or they may be wrong, only time will tell, but this why you need to stick with him and not panic and take a QB next year. Is Tua the next Rodgers or the next Leinart? No way of knowing until he plays but as history shows the ODDS are he'll be closer to Leinhart than Rodgers in overall results, that's just the odds of it. Every year has its top hyped stud QB in the eyes of the draft prognosticators and fans but very few turn out to be such in the end.

Some are using the Rosen/Murray comparison to prove teams WILL draft a top QB 'every year' until they get an elite QB. Mythical. How many times do teams take top QBs in back-to-back years? There's a reason they don't, even in the current QB has been less than impressive. Teams with an average QB or above are even less inclined. whether fans like it or not, it's Flores who makes that decision based on HIS observations. I think Rosen stays in '20 without competition unless Flores thinks it's a done experiment.
 
Some are using the Rosen/Murray comparison to prove teams WILL draft a top QB 'every year' until they get an elite QB. Mythical. How many times do teams take top QBs in back-to-back years? There's a reason they don't, even in the current QB has been less than impressive. Teams with an average QB or above are even less inclined. whether fans like it or not, it's Flores who makes that decision based on HIS observations. I think Rosen stays in '20 without competition unless Flores thinks it's a done experiment.

So if Rosen struggles this year you think he should get another chance in 2020 without competition? That makes no sense at all. It's that line of thinking that lead to Ryan Tannehill being the QB for 7 years. If the Dolphins have a chance to find an upgrade in next year's draft, they should do it.
 
So if Rosen struggles this year you think he should get another chance in 2020 without competition? That makes no sense at all. It's that line of thinking that lead to Ryan Tannehill being the QB for 7 years. If the Dolphins have a chance to upgrade in next year's draft, they will do it and should do it.

Don't read what I didn't say. First, from my previous post . . . " whether fans like it or not, it's Flores who makes that decision based on HIS observations." Not mine. Second, just my opinion, "I THINK [added emphasis] Rosen stays in '20 without competition unless Flores thinks it's a done experiment." I make no guarantees, nor do I say that's what I want.

with that clarified, it depends on how Rosen "struggles." If he struggles, but plays well the last 4 games, I think FLORES will keep him without a R1 QB in '20. Same thing if his "struggles" appear due to poor OL play. OTOH, if Flores sees a sub-par QB with no chance for growth or can't lead the team, yeah, a R1 QB in '20 wouldn't surprise me. Again, don't confuse what I EXPECT with a prediction.
 
Some are using the Rosen/Murray comparison to prove teams WILL draft a top QB 'every year' until they get an elite QB. Mythical. How many times do teams take top QBs in back-to-back years? There's a reason they don't, even in the current QB has been less than impressive. Teams with an average QB or above are even less inclined. whether fans like it or not, it's Flores who makes that decision based on HIS observations. I think Rosen stays in '20 without competition unless Flores thinks it's a done experiment.
IMO I don't think this is an experiment in their eyes. What would be the point to bring him in if you didn't feel he could be your long term answer. I'm sure they've done more than their due diligence in researching him. I think they look for what they need to fit their system and he has the qualities they're looking for. Think about how Brady is used in the Pats system and apply that to what you are looking for as far as a skillset. I'm not saying he's on the same level as TB obviously, but his strengths fit for what they are trying to accomplish with running their O.
 
Don't read what I didn't say. First, from my previous post . . . " whether fans like it or not, it's Flores who makes that decision based on HIS observations." Not mine. Second, just my opinion, "I THINK [added emphasis] Rosen stays in '20 without competition unless Flores thinks it's a done experiment." I make no guarantees, nor do I say that's what I want.

with that clarified, it depends on how Rosen "struggles." If he struggles, but plays well the last 4 games, I think FLORES will keep him without a R1 QB in '20. Same thing if his "struggles" appear due to poor OL play. OTOH, if Flores sees a sub-par QB with no chance for growth or can't lead the team, yeah, a R1 QB in '20 wouldn't surprise me. Again, don't confuse what I EXPECT with a prediction.
You would go broke drafting a QB in the first round until you found one. We're just escaping cap hell, that would put you right back into it!
 
So if Rosen struggles this year you think he should get another chance in 2020 without competition? That makes no sense at all. It's that line of thinking that lead to Ryan Tannehill being the QB for 7 years. If the Dolphins have a chance to find an upgrade in next year's draft, they should do it.
How do you upgrade when you don't know what your upgrading from. They have no benchmark yet. He needs 2-3 years especially since we gutted the roster and are starting fresh. I'm not suggesting you don't bring in competition, that would be silly, but you certainly don't look to replace him with a first round QB one year into it.
 
Don't read what I didn't say. First, from my previous post . . . " whether fans like it or not, it's Flores who makes that decision based on HIS observations." Not mine. Second, just my opinion, "I THINK [added emphasis] Rosen stays in '20 without competition unless Flores thinks it's a done experiment." I make no guarantees, nor do I say that's what I want.

with that clarified, it depends on how Rosen "struggles." If he struggles, but plays well the last 4 games, I think FLORES will keep him without a R1 QB in '20. Same thing if his "struggles" appear due to poor OL play. OTOH, if Flores sees a sub-par QB with no chance for growth or can't lead the team, yeah, a R1 QB in '20 wouldn't surprise me. Again, don't confuse what I EXPECT with a prediction.

My prediction is if he plays like he did in Arizona last year he won't be the starter come 2020. Especially if they end up with a high enough draft pick to take a QB next year.
 
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