Missed Opportunity Amidst Optimism With Dolphins' Draft | Page 3 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Missed Opportunity Amidst Optimism With Dolphins' Draft

That's not how value works. Value transcends positional need. The sharpest teams understand that and embrace it. You can't merely look at which teams apparently needed a quarterback. That's the mistake many people are making. If the draft had slipped further then many teams that didn't need a quarterback would have inquired about Rosen. One of them would have swooped him up...our opportunity gone. It would have been the same type of flawed thinking that led us to keep Tannehill for 7 years without competition.

The sharpest guy I met in Las Vegas taught me to just keep making good bets, whether I liked them or not. If I saw something out of whack then grab it, whether it was a pointspread, or a money line, or a prop wager. He was 100% correct. Once I started doing that it was amazing how the bottom line cooperated. I walked around feeling like a thief. Those were the days when every casino had its own independent sportsbook and none of them communicated with each other. Legwork was everything.

The same principal applies to Tua next year. If some team has the first pick and seemingly doesn't need a quarterback, that doesn't mean they don't need and won't draft Tua.

Gaps at that position are enormous. Arizona made the correct move and the Dolphins made the correct exploratory move.

I don’t fully agree, but I do understand the logic and appreciate the response. Regardless whether I agree in full, they’ve got at least 1 young QB prospect on the roster now and could end up with another next season if they are as bad as a lot of people believe they will be.
 
I actually look at it differently. Miami took advantage of an opportunity to get a quarterback in 2019 instead of 2020. Because of that move, other needs took a back seat.

Looking to the 2020 draft, the Dolphins are set-up for a fantasy draft with two picks in every round except the first and fifth (if comp picks are awarded as projected).
 
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The only thing I question is trading a 2nd for Rosen. I know the consensus is that it’s a great move — especially after trading down once in the round. But I would have liked to see them play their hand a little stronger.

Once teams like the Giants and Broncos selected QB’s, the list of potential suitors for Rosen dwindled. The Cardinals had little to no leverage. I would have held firm on trading the Dolphins 3rd round pick and would have tried like hell for a 4th rounder. I surely wouldn’t have included the 2020 5th rounder unless it was with a lower pick. Assuming AZ said ‘no’, I would have called their bluff and said ‘keep him’. They couldn’t. Not realistically. Too much risk of negative fall out.

Negotiating with yourself is easy. You seem very good at it. I'd guess you win a lot.

Negotiating in a one on one situation is harder. Sometimes a lot harder because it's easy to make assumptions about how you think the other side values something and be wrong.

Negotiating in a multi party situation is extremely hard to get right because of how other parties can negotiate not only to win, but to make sure if they lose, you pay a much higher price.

You, and everyone else who has posted the same "they should have paid less" posts simply ignore that the negotiations happen on a timer -- the price we paid was constrained by the value of the pick that was on the clock. By trading the pick that Az wanted in the moment, we generated extra value that made it harder for another team to match our offer within a reasonable price window.


If you negotiate for picks that aren't on the clock you remove a lot of urgency and invite others into the negotiations which always raises the price (ever end up in a bidding war for a house and end up paying a lot more than you expected?)

Who says that Rosen couldn't have been traded for a higher pick next year or that Az couldn't hold him until a training camp injury raises his value?
 
Totally agree. Can’t have it both ways. They selected the most talented players they feel will fit in with their system. And there are 31 other teams involved so you can’t get every player you want.

The only thing I question is trading a 2nd for Rosen. I know the consensus is that it’s a great move — especially after trading down once in the round. But I would have liked to see them play their hand a little stronger.

Once teams like the Giants and Broncos selected QB’s, the list of potential suitors for Rosen dwindled. The Cardinals had little to no leverage. I would have held firm on trading the Dolphins 3rd round pick and would have tried like hell for a 4th rounder. I surely wouldn’t have included the 2020 5th rounder unless it was with a lower pick. Assuming AZ said ‘no’, I would have called their bluff and said ‘keep him’. They couldn’t. Not realistically. Too much risk of negative fall out.

The only drawback to that strategy was another team offering more. But was there one? It surely wouldn’t have been any of the teams that selected a QB in the 1st.

I think, in regards to the Rosen trade, you are overlooking the fact that AZ had the option of just keeping him, if they couldn't get a mininum return.

They already paid the bulk of his salary, and didn't have to trade him at all.
 
I believe the defensive back position is by far the deepest position on this team by far. Howard and Fitz can play on the outside, Mcain in the slot Jones and at safety. Then we have Smith, Armstrong at corner and M Smith at safety. If everyone stays healthy that's not a bad lineup. Sure you might want to move some guys around like Fitz at slot but we are not talking garbage like we have at DE.
 
I believe the defensive back position is by far the deepest position on this team by far. Howard and Fitz can play on the outside, Mcain in the slot Jones and at safety. Then we have Smith, Armstrong at corner and M Smith at safety. If everyone stays healthy that's not a bad lineup. Sure you might want to move some guys around like Fitz at slot but we are not talking garbage like we have at DE.

I suppose you could make that arguement, but there is no depth on this team in any other unit, with the possible exception of RBs.

Our secondary is not deep, when compared to top NFL teams. Maybe Tankersly can turn it around.
 
I suppose you could make that arguement, but there is no depth on this team in any other unit, with the possible exception of RBs.

Our secondary is not deep, when compared to top NFL teams. Maybe Tankersly can turn it around.

Actually just my opinion but we have all of our receivers back lots of depth there but the problem as I mentioned last year they are injury prone. Rebuilding the oline and defensive front is the priority.
 
I suppose you could make that arguement, but there is no depth on this team in any other unit, with the possible exception of RBs.

Our secondary is not deep, when compared to top NFL teams. Maybe Tankersly can turn it around.

Agree in general, but there isn't one team in the NFL deep in every position. Top teams are just deep in more positions than average or worse teams. And top teams have coaches who can 'hide' weaknesses until injuries start to accumulate.
 
Negotiating with yourself is easy. You seem very good at it. I'd guess you win a lot

Resorting to childish responses proves you have nothing to worthwhile to bring to a discussion and have already lost. Thanks for starting off your post this way so I didn’t have waste anymore time reading any further and can add to ignore. No upside to it. Much appreciated
 
I think, in regards to the Rosen trade, you are overlooking the fact that AZ had the option of just keeping him, if they couldn't get a mininum return.

They already paid the bulk of his salary, and didn't have to trade him at all.

First of all, thanks for a thoughtful and respectful reply, unlike the other I got.

I didn’t over look it that option, I just don’t believe keeping him was as realistic an option as you do.

The attention over the Rosen situation even before they selected Kyler Murray was quite high. How uncomfortable of a situation do you think it was gonna be and how much National attention do you think it would have got had they actually went to camp with those 2 guys on the roster? With a 1st year head coach already thought to covet and be in Murray’s corner, it was never gonna be a tenable situation for them.

I don’t believe keeping Rosen was a realistic option for them. Possible? Of course. But at what cost? No team wants that kind of disharmony and drama surrounding the QB position.

My point is that I would have called their bluff. But that’s me. It seems many others don’t agree, which is fine. Perhaps my tactic wouldn’t have worked. Perhaps it would have.

But with the QB pool available in 2020 and the likelihood of the Dolphins ending up with a top 10 pick with other draft capital to move up should they need to — I didn’t like the idea of parting with a 2nd round pick (even after trading down) for Josh Rosen. As a Dolphins fan, I surely hope he turns out to be a stud and it works out.

But for me, I didn’t like Rosen enough to part with a 2nd & a 5th versus taking their chances with the 2020 class. I would have been more on board with it for their 3rd.

That’s just one man’s opinion though.
 
First of all, thanks for a thoughtful and respectful reply, unlike the other I got.

I didn’t over look it that option, I just don’t believe keeping him was as realistic an option as you do.

The attention over the Rosen situation even before they selected Kyler Murray was quite high. How uncomfortable of a situation do you think it was gonna be and how much National attention do you think it would have got had they actually went to camp with those 2 guys on the roster? With a 1st year head coach already thought to covet and be in Murray’s corner, it was never gonna be a tenable situation for them.

I don’t believe keeping Rosen was a realistic option for them. Possible? Of course. But at what cost? No team wants that kind of disharmony and drama surrounding the QB position.

My point is that I would have called their bluff. But that’s me. It seems many others don’t agree, which is fine. Perhaps my tactic wouldn’t have worked. Perhaps it would have.

But with the QB pool available in 2020 and the likelihood of the Dolphins ending up with a top 10 pick with other draft capital to move up should they need to — I didn’t like the idea of parting with a 2nd round pick (even after trading down) for Josh Rosen. As a Dolphins fan, I surely hope he turns out to be a stud and it works out.

But for me, I didn’t like Rosen enough to part with a 2nd & a 5th versus taking their chances with the 2020 class. I would have been more on board with it for their 3rd.

That’s just one man’s opinion though.

Another way of looking at it . . . the difference between Miami's 2nd and 3rd is 84 points on the draft value chart. Not much.
 
Another way of looking at it . . . the difference between Miami's 2nd and 3rd is 84 points on the draft value chart. Not much.

Good point. But everybody little bit counts IMO.

Regardless, we got who we got now and I’m getting on board with it.
 
Good point. But everybody little bit counts IMO.

Regardless, we got who we got now and I’m getting on board with it.
I agree that every little bit helps, but in the context of the "bigger picture", the value, as far as possible upside reward to risk, far outways the cost.
 
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