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J-off's Sideways Board For Miami

I've been strategically and happily avoiding the offseason so I was unaware of the consensus around here and frankly a lot of it surprise me. I would have been disgusted with an offensive lineman in the first round. I would have shut off the television and probably not returned until the following day. Heck, there was world championship mixed doubles curling I could have caught up with.

If you are drafting a golf bag you don't start out with a 4 iron. That's the equivalent of taking an offensive lineman first. I think we've got far too much irrelevant fooler material like the Colts last year. Think 70 years not 1. None of these guys were the equivalent of Nelson to begin with. I thought it was a sorry lot, given where they were projected prior to Thursday. The NFL had some clarity by allowing them to slide somewhat. The only one I liked enough to consider somewhere in the first round was Bradbury, but that was tempered by McCoy likely being available one round later. That's the proper focus for offensive linemen, guys like McCoy in the second or Armstead in the late third or Thuney in the mid third or Shaq Mason in the fourth. Obviously you don't pass a sliding rare talent like Tunsil but that's never going to happen again so ignore it.

Ryan Tannehill made the offensive line look worse than it is. When a 35 year old running back is averaging 4.6 yards per carry, that might be a slight hint, especially when it was nearly a full yard above his numbers from any of 3 years prior with the Colts. We spent 7 years brainwashed into believing that our subpar athletes were a decisive cut below the subpar athletes of 31 other teams.

I wanted Daniel Jones off the board. That was priority number 1-345. I didn't think the Dolphins were stupid enough but it wasn't worth 10 minutes of terror to find out. Laughing at Gettleman was distant second to joyous relief.

Then it a long tease with Ed Oliver, who would have equated to another Tunsil situation but minus the headgear. Never going to happen but I don't regret the root. The league is more interesting when the Bills have a vicious attacking defense, especially for those late season home games.

Once it reached the Miami slot I thought it was obvious the pick would be Wilkins or Lawrence, with nod likelihood to Wilkins as a safer guy with unquestioned character. It really reminded me of last year with Minkah above Derwin James. The bigger guy probably has more upside but I understand the mentality of taking the building block piece who allows peaceful sleep for everyone in the organization.

Grier can make all the safe first round choices he wants as long as he sticks to that formula...choosing among a handful of premier recruits from major schools who quickly produced big in college, and continued to do so. Lawrence was considered the 2nd to 5th player in the country that year and won't turn 22 until late November. I wouldn't have minded him at all. The Dolphins have been kidding themselves regarding the upside of Godchaux and Taylor.

Brian Burns has nice analytics and I can understand the frame comparisons to Jason Taylor, but something always bothered me about Burns. He doesn't seem angry enough out there. He'll get around the corner but without the tenacity of someone like Taylor, or Jared Allen to use an extreme example.

I don't know how Charles Harris can be used as example of a safe pick. He was a 2-star nothing recruit who went to a school that is technically within the SEC but I don't think anyone really believes that. In short, he is everything that Fitzpatrick and Wilkins were not. If Stephen Ross is determined to keep Grier he should at least hire someone whose sole responsibility is to remind Grier of Charles Harris every day, like walking alongside Grier with an ipad of Harris videos, and non stop questions. Lunch for Grier every day is that ipad in his face. Tough love.
Charles Harris was a "safe" pick as in "safe" to say he was a wasted pick.
 
I've been strategically and happily avoiding the offseason so I was unaware of the consensus around here and frankly a lot of it surprise me. I would have been disgusted with an offensive lineman in the first round. I would have shut off the television and probably not returned until the following day. Heck, there was world championship mixed doubles curling I could have caught up with.

If you are drafting a golf bag you don't start out with a 4 iron. That's the equivalent of taking an offensive lineman first. I think we've got far too much irrelevant fooler material like the Colts last year. Think 70 years not 1. None of these guys were the equivalent of Nelson to begin with. I thought it was a sorry lot, given where they were projected prior to Thursday. The NFL had some clarity by allowing them to slide somewhat. The only one I liked enough to consider somewhere in the first round was Bradbury, but that was tempered by McCoy likely being available one round later. That's the proper focus for offensive linemen, guys like McCoy in the second or Armstead in the late third or Thuney in the mid third or Shaq Mason in the fourth. Obviously you don't pass a sliding rare talent like Tunsil but that's never going to happen again so ignore it.

Ryan Tannehill made the offensive line look worse than it is. When a 35 year old running back is averaging 4.6 yards per carry, that might be a slight hint, especially when it was nearly a full yard above his numbers from any of 3 years prior with the Colts. We spent 7 years brainwashed into believing that our subpar athletes were a decisive cut below the subpar athletes of 31 other teams.

I wanted Daniel Jones off the board. That was priority number 1-345. I didn't think the Dolphins were stupid enough but it wasn't worth 10 minutes of terror to find out. Laughing at Gettleman was distant second to joyous relief.

Then it a long tease with Ed Oliver, who would have equated to another Tunsil situation but minus the headgear. Never going to happen but I don't regret the root. The league is more interesting when the Bills have a vicious attacking defense, especially for those late season home games.

Once it reached the Miami slot I thought it was obvious the pick would be Wilkins or Lawrence, with nod likelihood to Wilkins as a safer guy with unquestioned character. It really reminded me of last year with Minkah above Derwin James. The bigger guy probably has more upside but I understand the mentality of taking the building block piece who allows peaceful sleep for everyone in the organization.

Grier can make all the safe first round choices he wants as long as he sticks to that formula...choosing among a handful of premier recruits from major schools who quickly produced big in college, and continued to do so. Lawrence was considered the 2nd to 5th player in the country that year and won't turn 22 until late November. I wouldn't have minded him at all. The Dolphins have been kidding themselves regarding the upside of Godchaux and Taylor.

Brian Burns has nice analytics and I can understand the frame comparisons to Jason Taylor, but something always bothered me about Burns. He doesn't seem angry enough out there. He'll get around the corner but without the tenacity of someone like Taylor, or Jared Allen to use an extreme example.

I don't know how Charles Harris can be used as example of a safe pick. He was a 2-star nothing recruit who went to a school that is technically within the SEC but I don't think anyone really believes that. In short, he is everything that Fitzpatrick and Wilkins were not. If Stephen Ross is determined to keep Grier he should at least hire someone whose sole responsibility is to remind Grier of Charles Harris every day, like walking alongside Grier with an ipad of Harris videos, and non stop questions. Lunch for Grier every day is that ipad in his face. Tough love.

I agree and disagree. I agree in the sense that having an OL full of solid starters, with maybe one or two very good linemen, is enough. My disagreement stems from the difficulty in finding solid starters. The depth of this OL class is not good, but the top players are. Even NE, who is among the best at finding mid-round OL, has used two of its earliest 1st Round picks of the decade on OL (Solder and Wynn).

If Miami can pull off a good OL without premium investments, that'd be ideal, but I think it's a gamble, and I wouldn't make that gamble in the name of drafting a DT like Wilkins. Oliver or Q. Williams? Sure, but particularly with a young QB, who will need time to adjust to the speed of the game, I think you want to give him as many clean pockets as possible. It's also helpful to your evaluation of your QB, as throws from under pressure are less predictive.

My fear is that 2020 comes, and Rosen took a beating, so the team doesn't have a clear picture for what he'll be, and it decides it needs to now invest early draft capital in OL. So, maybe they're hesitant to pull the trigger on a top QB, and they feel they don't have the luxury of drafting a WR in the early 2nd. The 2020 WR class looks like it will easily be the best WR group since 2014, and it may be better overall. I expect a guy who would be a Top 20 pick in most classes to be there in the 33-40 range.
 
1. N'Keal Harry - NE (32)
2. AJ Brown - TEN (51)

2nd/3rd

3. Andy Isabella - ARI (62)
4. DK Metcalf - SEA (64)

3rd

5. Hakeem Butler - ARI (103)

3rd/4th

6. Emanuel Hall - CHI (UDFA)
7. Deebo Samuel - SF (36)
8. Stanley Morgan Jr - CIN (UDFA)
9. Hollywood Brown - BAL (25)
10. JJ Arcega-Whiteside - PHI (57)

Shout out to OW Parris Campbell - IND (59) - who I didn't list for Miami, because he was not a fit. He's an excellent fit in the Agholor role for the Colts, though.

Read that some character issues caused Hall to slide - more temperament than him being a knucklehead - and he does have durability concerns. No idea why Morgan Jr. went undrafted.

The only two picks from this group that I question are Hollywood and Samuel. 25 is very early for Brown, given the questions about his game, and I think he'll have a hard time living up to that draft slot with Lamar Jackson at QB. I'm not as down on the Samuel pick, but AJ Brown does a lot of the same things, doesn't have the injury history, and is younger and imo better.

I had Harry and Brown as WR1 and 2 for most teams (Miami included). I actually had Metcalf rated higher for Tennessee, because he complements Davis better, and I view the Brown selection as an indictment on Mariota or Davis or both. With that in mind, Brown should be a better version of Jarvis Landry for a QB that needs a safety blanket. As someone who was never particularly high on Mariota, I probably gave him too much credit.

Harry should be great in NE. He dominates the middle of the field, and he's the best YAC receiver in the class. Feel like too many people were concerned about the areas where Harry didn't excel, and they didn't give enough attention to the areas where he's elite.

Isabella and Butler should suit Murray and Arizona's Offense very well. Murray's deep ball is about as good as it gets, and both are Top 5 deep threats in this class (Metcalf, Hollywood, and Hall). They also offer some versatility, with the ability to win outside or from the slot.

With Lockett already one of the best deep threats in the league, I had Harry and Brown as better fits for Seattle than Metcalf, but both were off the board. Given that Seattle doesn't pass enough, and that Wilson throws the deep ball as well as anyone, maybe it's for the best. At least when Seattle is running too much in 2019, it won't be into loaded boxes. Wilson and Metcalf should produce a lot of big plays (relative to Seattle's passing volume).
 
I've been strategically and happily avoiding the offseason so I was unaware of the consensus around here and frankly a lot of it surprise me. I would have been disgusted with an offensive lineman in the first round. I would have shut off the television and probably not returned until the following day. Heck, there was world championship mixed doubles curling I could have caught up with.

If you are drafting a golf bag you don't start out with a 4 iron. That's the equivalent of taking an offensive lineman first. I think we've got far too much irrelevant fooler material like the Colts last year. Think 70 years not 1. None of these guys were the equivalent of Nelson to begin with. I thought it was a sorry lot, given where they were projected prior to Thursday. The NFL had some clarity by allowing them to slide somewhat. The only one I liked enough to consider somewhere in the first round was Bradbury, but that was tempered by McCoy likely being available one round later. That's the proper focus for offensive linemen, guys like McCoy in the second or Armstead in the late third or Thuney in the mid third or Shaq Mason in the fourth. Obviously you don't pass a sliding rare talent like Tunsil but that's never going to happen again so ignore it.

Ryan Tannehill made the offensive line look worse than it is. When a 35 year old running back is averaging 4.6 yards per carry, that might be a slight hint, especially when it was nearly a full yard above his numbers from any of 3 years prior with the Colts. We spent 7 years brainwashed into believing that our subpar athletes were a decisive cut below the subpar athletes of 31 other teams.

I wanted Daniel Jones off the board. That was priority number 1-345. I didn't think the Dolphins were stupid enough but it wasn't worth 10 minutes of terror to find out. Laughing at Gettleman was distant second to joyous relief.

Then it a long tease with Ed Oliver, who would have equated to another Tunsil situation but minus the headgear. Never going to happen but I don't regret the root. The league is more interesting when the Bills have a vicious attacking defense, especially for those late season home games.

Once it reached the Miami slot I thought it was obvious the pick would be Wilkins or Lawrence, with nod likelihood to Wilkins as a safer guy with unquestioned character. It really reminded me of last year with Minkah above Derwin James. The bigger guy probably has more upside but I understand the mentality of taking the building block piece who allows peaceful sleep for everyone in the organization.

Grier can make all the safe first round choices he wants as long as he sticks to that formula...choosing among a handful of premier recruits from major schools who quickly produced big in college, and continued to do so. Lawrence was considered the 2nd to 5th player in the country that year and won't turn 22 until late November. I wouldn't have minded him at all. The Dolphins have been kidding themselves regarding the upside of Godchaux and Taylor.

Brian Burns has nice analytics and I can understand the frame comparisons to Jason Taylor, but something always bothered me about Burns. He doesn't seem angry enough out there. He'll get around the corner but without the tenacity of someone like Taylor, or Jared Allen to use an extreme example.

I don't know how Charles Harris can be used as example of a safe pick. He was a 2-star nothing recruit who went to a school that is technically within the SEC but I don't think anyone really believes that. In short, he is everything that Fitzpatrick and Wilkins were not. If Stephen Ross is determined to keep Grier he should at least hire someone whose sole responsibility is to remind Grier of Charles Harris every day, like walking alongside Grier with an ipad of Harris videos, and non stop questions. Lunch for Grier every day is that ipad in his face. Tough love.

:lol:
 
I agree and disagree. I agree in the sense that having an OL full of solid starters, with maybe one or two very good linemen, is enough. My disagreement stems from the difficulty in finding solid starters. The depth of this OL class is not good, but the top players are. Even NE, who is among the best at finding mid-round OL, has used two of its earliest 1st Round picks of the decade on OL (Solder and Wynn).

If Miami can pull off a good OL without premium investments, that'd be ideal, but I think it's a gamble, and I wouldn't make that gamble in the name of drafting a DT like Wilkins. Oliver or Q. Williams? Sure, but particularly with a young QB, who will need time to adjust to the speed of the game, I think you want to give him as many clean pockets as possible. It's also helpful to your evaluation of your QB, as throws from under pressure are less predictive.

My fear is that 2020 comes, and Rosen took a beating, so the team doesn't have a clear picture for what he'll be, and it decides it needs to now invest early draft capital in OL. So, maybe they're hesitant to pull the trigger on a top QB, and they feel they don't have the luxury of drafting a WR in the early 2nd. The 2020 WR class looks like it will easily be the best WR group since 2014, and it may be better overall. I expect a guy who would be a Top 20 pick in most classes to be there in the 33-40 range.

That problem stems from before the draft, when we opted to enter the draft with one good lineman instead of two.
 
That problem stems from before the draft, when we opted to enter the draft with one good lineman instead of two.

Yeah, the handling of OL is strange. I get wanting to improve upon James for a cheaper contract or getting someone close for much cheaper, but Miami hasn't done that, and Rosen is here . . . We'll see what the OL coach can do. If he makes this unit look decent, it'll be very impressive.
 
My fear is that 2020 comes, and Rosen took a beating, so the team doesn't have a clear picture for what he'll be, and it decides it needs to now invest early draft capital in OL. So, maybe they're hesitant to pull the trigger on a top QB, and they feel they don't have the luxury of drafting a WR in the early 2nd. The 2020 WR class looks like it will easily be the best WR group since 2014, and it may be better overall. I expect a guy who would be a Top 20 pick in most classes to be there in the 33-40 range.

Of course it's all speculation at this point, but I'd speculate on your speculation that this staff will NOT put Rosen into a situation where he takes a "beating." First and foremost, they are not under the gun to win in 2019 and hence don't have to make "compromising decisions" that may not be in the best interests of the team long term. That point coupled with the assumption I believe they will be "smart" and not subject Rosen to such a beating because it would put their credibility on the line.

I think there are a number of ways to avoid this pitfall -- including delaying the rollout of Rosen until they believe the OL is at least marginal (which may be sooner than later) to making sure they play it conservative, meaning extra protection and quicker developing patterns etc. to minimize exposure. In addition, obviously focusing on the ground game and play action etc. can help minimize the potential brutality Rosen faces if indeed the OL is inferior (which again, may not prove to be the case).

Bottom line, they are NOT going to ask the kid to carry the team and subject him to potential disasters because that's not in the teams best interests at this point. Beyond that, as others have noted, the fact that Rosen is on the roster doesn’t preclude us from any options in 2020 -- be it QB or WR or whatever.

Last, I still believe in practice and if this staff is really what we hope they will have a very good idea what Rosen is all about by next December based on what he (hopefully) consistently demonstrates behind the scenes.

I fully expect a very gradual rollout and subsequent ramp up with Rosen contingent on a number of factors. So far the new (significantly revised) org acts smart and I expect that trait to continue.

>>> It's way to early to worry about April 2020.

BNF
 
Drafts I loved:

Arizona - Best player/QB in the class, really good CB, outstanding group of receivers. Passing wins and loses in the NFL.

Drafts I likes pretty well:

Tampa Bay - mixed feelings about the White pick, as I really like the player, but there were other players I really liked that play more valuable positions still on the board. Love the picks of Dean, Edwards, and Nelson, and Scott Miller is a player I just forgot to include on my board. He has a legitimate chance to outplay his draft slot.

Buffalo - Ed Oliver and Cody Ford make this class. Knox has the physical talent to develop, but he's basically an unknown. The rest was really bad.

Miami - the 2nd Round was a thing of beauty. Moving down from 48 to add a 2019 2nd and then trading 62 for Rosen is one of the best sequences in years. It would have been nice if Miami behaved as though they were excited to acquire Rosen by focusing the draft on helping him. If it's true that they could have moved down in the 1st, that's a black mark. Here's hoping Miami can replicate NE's success with low-cost OL.

Washington - got Haskins at a good spot/in the range I like him. Good value on Sweat despite the trade up, and Holcomb, Harmon, and Brailford are very nice late-round picks. They all have a shot. Not as high on McLaurin, but he should contribute. Love is a wildcard. Pretty good draft for a ****ty organization.

Drafts I didn't hate:

San Francisco - Bosa is good, and they needed DE more than DT. Samuel should do well in Shannahan's offense. The rest is pretty uninspiring.

NYJ - Quinnen Williams is the best non-QB in the class, but Polite at 68 is ugly. With Darnold entering his second year, and the Jets' offense needing so much help, their focus on D doesn't make a lot of sense. I do like Edoga and Cashman where they got them.

Jacksonville - Allen and Taylor were solid picks. The rest of their class lacks focus/meaning.

Detroit - 8 is really high for a TE. Hockenson will have to develop much quicker than most top TE's to make this pick decent. Even if he does, the financial aspect of the pick doesn't give Detroit much of an edge. Tavai is a good fit, but I had questions about his speed, and he didn't test. Like the Oruwariye pick the best, followed by the Ty Johnson pick.

Pittsburgh - like where they got Justin Layne and Ulysees Gilbert III. Trading up for Bush is rough and smells of desperation. Good player, but he'll have to be an All Pro to justify the draft capital - bad process. Drafting Diontae Johnson at 66, with some of the other receivers still available, was also weird. Not a great job by Pittsburgh.

Cincinnati - Jonah Williams should be a Day 1 starter, and I like Pratt and T. Williams, but the Bengals - like many of these teams - had what seemed like an aimless approach. Even if some of these guys hit, with the exception of Williams, the payoff will be minimal. Also, I liked Sample more than most, but I agree with the consensus that he was a massive reach.

Green Bay - my main issue with GB's draft is the focus on D, when they need so much help on O. Savage and Jenkins are very good players and should contribute early. Savage has star potential. Gary is a really nice fit, and Keke is a good developmental DL. Wasn't as high on Sternberger, but he's fine where they drafted him. The GB D has a lot of young talent, and maybe it will be good enough to *squints* carry Aaron Rodgers and the Offense . . .

Atlanta - love the Lindstrom pick, and I like Cominsky as a developmental DE, but trading up for McGary was bad, and the rest of the class was uninspiring (to put it kindly). Still, attacking the OL when you have a QB and weapons like Atlanta is a solid plan.

Carolina - higher on Burns than most here, but I question the fit and question them prioritizing Pass Rusher over OT, especially when Dillard is a better prospect. Think Little could be solid or flame out - not a great consolation prize for missing on Dillard. Appropriate value for Grier. Nothing exciting or particularly clever about this class.

Minnesota - Bradbury is a good player/elite athlete at a position of significant need. Like Watts, Epps, Boyd, and Mitchell where they got 'em. Smith and Mattison drag the class down a bit for me.

Drafts I hated:

Oakland - Ferrell at 4, Jacobs in the 1st, the Raiders squandered their wealth of early picks - just really ugly. Do like the Moreau and Crosby picks, though.

NYG - at least Jones is a QB/there's some chance in hell he lives up to the value of the pick, but the Giants continue to embarrass themselves. Baker is a solid CB prospect, but the trade up to get him is questionable. Julian Love was the best pick by a country mile and a steal in the 4th.

Will try to give quick takes on the rest asap.
How about Chris Ballard and what he is doing with the Indianapolis Colts? I love the job he is doing. That team is set up to win for a long time.
 
How about Chris Ballard and what he is doing with the Indianapolis Colts? I love the job he is doing. That team is set up to win for a long time.

Agree with you - love what they're doing in Indianapolis. A lot of people had Banogu as more of a 3rd/4th, but it sounds like the Colts plan to use him in a role similar to Jamie Collins/Kyle Van Noy, and I had him as a Top 40 player for that same role in Miami. Rock Ya-Sin should fit what they ask of their CB's. He's strong, tough, has solid speed for his size, and has great instincts. Mentioned in the WR highlight a few posts up, but I think Indianapolis is the ideal spot for Parris Campbell. Also love the way they continue to trade down and acquire more picks. I think I made it to through the teams with the first 19 or 20 picks in 2019. I had planned to get through all the teams by now, but I hope to finish them relatively soon. Good call on the Colts. NE and SEA stand out in a good way - even though I thought Collier was a reach in the 1st. PHI got off to a great start with Dillard, but the rest of the class was just OK to me.
 
Of course it's all speculation at this point, but I'd speculate on your speculation that this staff will NOT put Rosen into a situation where he takes a "beating." First and foremost, they are not under the gun to win in 2019 and hence don't have to make "compromising decisions" that may not be in the best interests of the team long term. That point coupled with the assumption I believe they will be "smart" and not subject Rosen to such a beating because it would put their credibility on the line.

I think there are a number of ways to avoid this pitfall -- including delaying the rollout of Rosen until they believe the OL is at least marginal (which may be sooner than later) to making sure they play it conservative, meaning extra protection and quicker developing patterns etc. to minimize exposure. In addition, obviously focusing on the ground game and play action etc. can help minimize the potential brutality Rosen faces if indeed the OL is inferior (which again, may not prove to be the case).

Bottom line, they are NOT going to ask the kid to carry the team and subject him to potential disasters because that's not in the teams best interests at this point. Beyond that, as others have noted, the fact that Rosen is on the roster doesn’t preclude us from any options in 2020 -- be it QB or WR or whatever.

Last, I still believe in practice and if this staff is really what we hope they will have a very good idea what Rosen is all about by next December based on what he (hopefully) consistently demonstrates behind the scenes.

I fully expect a very gradual rollout and subsequent ramp up with Rosen contingent on a number of factors. So far the new (significantly revised) org acts smart and I expect that trait to continue.

>>> It's way to early to worry about April 2020.

BNF

Like your line of thinking, and if the staff is not content with the shape of the OL, I'd favor keeping Rosen off the field until that's corrected. If they never fix the OL in 2019, I'd be good sitting Rosen for the year, drafting a QB in 2020, and letting Rosen start in 2020 - depending on the shape of the OL. If Miami thinks it can supplement the OL with playcalling - a mix of quick passes and extra protection that you noted - maybe Rosen can safely see the field in 2019.
 
So I have maybe a dumb question @j-off-her-doll in your opinion why do most successful undrafted players go undrafted? Is there a common theme? Like they aren't great athletes? Or they are too unpolished. Limited ceiling etc
 
So I have maybe a dumb question @j-off-her-doll in your opinion why do most successful undrafted players go undrafted? Is there a common theme? Like they aren't great athletes? Or they are too unpolished. Limited ceiling etc

Very good question. I haven't looked into it closely, but I haven't noticed a significant pattern. When someone hits, drafted or not, we can typically look back and say, "Oh yeah, of course." We can look back at Chris Harris Jr and say, "He's not the fastest or most athletic, but he showed amazing instincts and coordination at Kansas, and he was all over the field."

In general, I'd say guys who don't fit prototypes but have some elite trait are probably the most likely to slip through the cracks when they shouldn't, but that comes in many forms. P. Lindsay was very good at Colorado - with excellent vision, receiving ability, and speed. He was just old and short.
 
Charles Harris was a "safe" pick as in "safe" to say he was a wasted pick.

Yeah, it's just a darn shame T.J. Watt was such a lousy system fit. He's got 34 quarterback hits, 22 tackles for loss in two seasons, along with 6 forced fumbles last year. But I doubt any of those would have happened in our system.

BTW, now that we have changed systems, is Watt still not a fit? I can't keep track of this stuff. The Pro Bowl site for 2020 hasn't been announced yet, as far as I know. Maybe somebody can go to the game and ask Watt why he was such an atrocious fit for the Dolphins.
 
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