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Rosen Pick Can Harm Fins

A top 10 pick from a year ago that everyone was wetting their pants over I had for a late second round pick and people are crying? Worst case is he plays average and we keep him as a backup when we drop Fitz and draft someone else or let him get beat up while the rookie learns. Fitzpatrick is the real mistake here but whatever.

I didn't think he was worth a top ten pick at QB last year, maybe a late first or early second. Same with Darnold, same with Allen but way later in the draft. Mayfield I could see being the first QB, not number 1 at the time but he's the only one from that class that looks to be on the right track. I understand why these guys were picked so high but I don't think they're worth the price/risk when they were drafted. Trevor Lawrence is the only guy coming out within the next couple of years I feel like looks to be in that draft me early can't miss homerun kinda guy. Herbert is in that I get it why you drafted him early group, Tua too but he could be a huge gamble.
 
Just curious. If Rosen outplays him, what do you think Flores will do?

I would hope he would play Rosen. And if after a yr or 2 they decide rosen is still the better player/prospect then we trade Tua or whoever the backup will be. Or by year 2 if the 2020 qb is better we trade rosen or keep him as a cheap backup. I'm ok with either situation.
 
I would hope he would play Rosen. And if after a yr or 2 they decide rosen is still the better player/prospect then we trade Tua or whoever the backup will be. Or by year 2 if the 2020 qb is better we trade rosen or keep him as a cheap backup. I'm ok with either situation.

I presume that means, if Rosen plays well, you expect Flores will draft a top '20 QB.
 
I don't presume Flores or Grier will do anything. But I hope, unless they are 100% sold on Rosen as the guy, they still take a top QB in 2020.

First, *I* was presuming. Didn't accuse you of presuming anything.
Second, I'll agree, but change that to "unless they have seen enough to think Rosen is the guy, . . .' Remember, no one can be "100% sold" on any '20 rookie
 
The main argument for acquiring Rosen is that he has a chance to be good, for a minimal price.

The flaw here is that most posters say “hey, if he bombs then we just go QB in 2020”. No downside, right?

Wrong.

It is VERY likely that he wins the starting job early on, and with a year already under his belt, he may grind us to 6 or 7 wins.

If that happens, most likely in my opinion, we will be out of the sweepstakes for a top QB in 2020. Trust me when I say that a QB needy team will not trade out of their top spot/s I’m 2020, regardless of the compensation offered.

So, a likely outcome is Fins in a draft purgatory position, again.

The only workaround is to start Fitzcake for the entirety (or most) of the season. And then let Rosen and Tua/Fromm etc battle for the starting position in 2020.
I completely agree. Very good assessment @TrinidadDolfan , thanks.

There was a question of whether we were tanking or not. If we get 6 wins, the season is a disaster--we're proven to be a bad team and lose out on any chance to get one of the elite QB's in 2020. That scenario basically marries us to Josh Rosen, or leads us to reaching for a 2nd tier QB, who has a much lower likelihood of success. IMHO, it's a very high risk/high reward play, and one we should only take on if we truly believe in the player and the person. This could very easily prove to be the make-or-break decision of the Flores era … and it comes on a late 2nd round pick. We've made those kinds of bets before with 2nd round QB's, like John Beck, Chad Henne, and Pat White, and while everyone loves the Russell Wilson stories … it doesn't always play out that way.

On the positive side, he might be the next Drew Brees or Tom Brady, two guys who play the game at an elite level with precision passing, cerebral play, and tremendous leadership. But on the negative side he could also be the next Jeff George or Jay Cutler, two guys with exceptional talent but limited by their less than stellar attitudes. It's not a gamble on the player … the talent is there like all 4 of the QB's mentioned. It's a gamble on the person. With Josh Rosen the talent is there also … it's just a matter of who he wants to be and what he is willing to sacrifice to become that person.
 
Try to look at it this way. Rosen, if coming out in this recent draft, would have been the second or 3rd QB off the board. He's got the 6'4" height, he's prototypical size of a big time drop back QB. He can really spin it, that's what a number of scouts has said. He can throw every pass even into the tightest of windows. He is what we need at QB, all we have to do is build a great offense around him, which includes a running game, a quality o-line and some speedy wide outs and we'll put up plenty of points. Patience will be required because he's a new QB, playing in a new scheme with new coaches. They need to take it slow with Rosen and let him build confidence and develop chemistry with his teammates. Now, try to look at it this way-we traded Tannehill for Rosen, I, for one, had seen enough of Ryan so I'm excited and optimistic. BTW, if Rosen washes out, we still will get our man in 2020. We have mucho draft capitol. But, something tells me we have a fit with Rosen, O'Shea, Flores and Caldwell. In no way have people seen Rosen's ceiling. This, 22 year old will get better and better imo. He finally will get the coaching he needs with Caldwell. I'm eager to see what will happen!
That's a good point. But it is also a bit of a slippery slope.

The same rationale can be used to ask the question of guys who were or were not successful with differing conclusions. If we asked, what if Pat Mahomes had stayed in school an extra year and come out then, he might have been the #1 overall pick. Or you could say, what if David Carr (Derek's older brother and the #1 overall pick in his draft who was a complete bust) had come out the next year, would his stock have gone up or down? Russell Wilson (up from the 2nd round)? Jake Locker (1st rounder who was a bust)? Yes, the extra year helps generally, but once you have knowledge that these guys are good (Pat Mahomes, Russell Wilson) or bad (David Carr, Jake Locker) it is only realistic to include that new information into the evaluation. At the end of the day, the transition from college to the NFL is not as easy to predict as we would like. There are always mistakes made in both directions.

So, we take the information we have, we extrapolate the best we can, and we make an educated guess and hope it's right. None of us really know how this will play out, we just know that the front office believed in him enough to give up a 2nd round pick and take a chance on him. Let's hope it works out.
 
I completely agree. Very good assessment @TrinidadDolfan , thanks.

There was a question of whether we were tanking or not. If we get 6 wins, the season is a disaster--we're proven to be a bad team and lose out on any chance to get one of the elite QB's in 2020. That scenario basically marries us to Josh Rosen, or leads us to reaching for a 2nd tier QB, who has a much lower likelihood of success. IMHO, it's a very high risk/high reward play, and one we should only take on if we truly believe in the player and the person. This could very easily prove to be the make-or-break decision of the Flores era … and it comes on a late 2nd round pick. We've made those kinds of bets before with 2nd round QB's, like John Beck, Chad Henne, and Pat White, and while everyone loves the Russell Wilson stories … it doesn't always play out that way.

On the positive side, he might be the next Drew Brees or Tom Brady, two guys who play the game at an elite level with precision passing, cerebral play, and tremendous leadership. But on the negative side he could also be the next Jeff George or Jay Cutler, two guys with exceptional talent but limited by their less than stellar attitudes. It's not a gamble on the player … the talent is there like all 4 of the QB's mentioned. It's a gamble on the person. With Josh Rosen the talent is there also … it's just a matter of who he wants to be and what he is willing to sacrifice to become that person.

Exactly. The flaw everyone has is the ability to only view talent - size, arm strength, speed, that kinda stuff. There is almost NO way to evaluate ability to mentally process NFL speed or gauge ability to analyze Ds in 2-3 seconds. Some get it in year 1, some take a little while, some never get it.

Take 4 players - Murray, Jones, Haskins, Lock. Every living fan know at least one will bust, and at least 1 will end up like Sanchez/Tannehill. Expecting two elite QBs is conceivable but statistically unlikely. One QB outside that group (R2 or less) may surprise. Which one falls into which group? There will be opinions, but no one knows and, it appears, most have a 'can't miss' name. Last year, Darnold. Allen, Rosen played like a R3 QB, yet some team(s) saw them as a top tier QB and 1-2 may be. Most fans are too impatient to let a player, particularly a QB, develop. I hope Flores is the guy to develop Rosen.
 
Actually so did his HC, his 2 sub-standard OCs and heaven knows how many Oline 2nd rate, hurt, and refuse-recyled O linemen "protecting" him. But Rosen with his 3-10 record (and who knows what would have happened if he started the other 3 games) is in good company, Manning's rookie 3-13 season would have also put them in contention for the 2019 first pick.

He was the QB
 
Digital, correct, none of us know how it will play out with Rosen but it's an inexpensive at bat with a guy that is chocked full of ability. I think Rosen needs some mentoring and some coaching and if brought along slowly could pay massive dividends. He certainly has an equal chance of success as Darnold, Allen, Locke or Haskins imo. I left out Murray and Mayfield because I have them rated higher than Rosen.
 
Not that BIGGG an 'if.' How many #1 picks in the last 15 years can be considered average or better? There are some, but not so many as to call failure a BIGGGG if
That's the funny thing here. A lot of posters are assuming that next years prospects are guaranteed to be elite.
 
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