dolphanNJ05 said:
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5003748
after this past weekend i thought we belonged at 20, but espn says 11th??? Beats me. :shakeno:
this is why
Inside this week's rankings
Our power rankings are not about what teams did last week, but rather how teams have played all season. That means accumulating as much data as possible. Wins and losses give us just five or six "events" to measure, which is a pretty small sample size. But the average NFL team has been involved in at least 400 plays this season. Measure the individual plays rather than just the wins and losses, and you have a much accurate sample.
Each week, with more data, we can be more confident in our numbers. This is part of the reason why we increase the strength of the opponent adjustment each week: for example, after two weeks, everybody thought that Kansas City had solved its defensive problems just because Chad Pennington fumbled a lot. With more games to study, we know that the Chiefs still have a poor defense, and we can adjust the offensive ratings of their past opponents accordingly.
Early on, to eliminate the power of fluke wins and losses, we are combining our ratings for 2005 with ratings from 2004 to get a more precise picture. Each week, we can reduce the importance of last year because we know more about this year. By this week, 2005 performance is up to 80 percent of each team's rating. After eight games, we'll have enough data to rank teams based on 2005 alone. Although these decisions lead to more accurate ratings, they also lead to some strange week-to-week movement, like Miami moving up five spots even though it lost to Tampa Bay. Miami gets a big bump for strength of schedule -- bigger than you might expect, because the opponent adjustments are different for runs and passes on different downs -- and that bump gets a little bigger each week. Plus, as we gain confidence in our 2005 numbers and give less impact to 2004, teams that were bad last year (like the Dolphins) move up. The opposite effect explains why Philadelphia can drop five spots on its bye week, and contributes to New England's plummet all the way down to number 16.