2012 QB's

ckparrothead

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Sounds like we've got all six that I've been talking about covered: Luck, Barkley, Weeden, Lindley, Tannehill and Jones. Those are the ones worth tracking.

Weeden and Lindley have stiff tests ahead of them.

No more Holgorsen for Weeden, but this has put him in an interesting position. He's an older guy but not a guy that people can say for sure loves the game, yet he's been put in position of basically having to teach the new offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen's offense. I don't think Mike Gundy even really bothered to learn it much. You'll never see a 28 year old Brandon Weeden with a professional pitcher's wear and tear on his shoulder going in the 1st round...but if he's able to take more ownership of the offense in the absence of Holgorsen, and achieve just as much or more, I sure would be confident in him as a QB prospect regardless of where I ended up taking him.

And of course Ryan Lindley has to deal with the loss of Al Borges in addition to his top receivers Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson. That's going to hurt. But I love these kinds of challenges. They help you know more about the prospect. We know Lindley is a very smart guy, mature, has good character and can operate an offense. How is he dealing with adversity? He's in the MWC, not exactly known for great defenses. Did Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson make him, or did he make them? Or did Al Borges make them all? I love challenges because when/if a guy comes through them, you know he's got something. I felt that way about Matt Ryan too. And Lindley's playing style reminds me of Matt a little bit. I just read something that said he's bulked up to 235 lbs and has only 2 classes this year, so he can focus on football. Can't wait to watch him.

As for Aaron Murray, I really just tend not to think he will come out, truth be told.

Ryan Tannehill same thing Slimm already said. The guy is a physical dynamo and not just because he is big and can run fast and whatnot. He's been a good wide receiver, he's shaping up to be a very good quarterback, he plays special teams, he's extremely SMART (forget what his major is but it's one of those brainiac majors), when when you just boil it down he throws a damn good football and has good feet. With his lack of experience and his background, total wildcard. But he's still my 6th player with 1st round talent. None of them graduate to being players with 1st round talent that should go in the 1st round until they play more this year. Everyone needs to be given the chance to screw it up. :)

As for Landry Jones, I'm not putting his name next to Sam Bradford's. There's something missing there, still. Of the six, I think I'm the most uncomfortable with designating him as a 1st round talent. I'll still put him up there of course, I'm just trying to say there's a discomfort level.
 
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ckparrothead

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ESPN ranks the Dolphins #24. If that holds, pick #9 would be theirs. It's as good a place as any to start for mock drafts, anyway. If pick #9 belongs to Miami...I wonder which QB they would take.
 

TedSlimmJr

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Ryan Tannehill was showing the ability to throw his receivers open by his 3rd start vs. Oklahoma, that is incredible. I've watched 3 years worth of film on quarterbacks before that never accomplished it...

My list of positives with Tannehill is long, but he needs to polish up on a few things as well. I look for him to do that as he gets another season's worth of experience under his belt. Tannehill has an "it" gene in him that's easy for me to see, whether it's at quarterback or receiver.. it's still there. The team responds to him in a way that you don't often see at the collegiate level...

The few minor mechanical flaws with Tannehill are correctable, it's simply a footwork issue.


Nick Foles is probably the guy I'm least comfortable with as a 1st round prospect...
 

TedSlimmJr

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ESPN ranks the Dolphins #24. If that holds, pick #9 would be theirs. It's as good a place as any to start for mock drafts, anyway. If pick #9 belongs to Miami...I wonder which QB they would take.


Whichever one somebody else drafted.... that's the one they would've taken.
 

Austin Tatious

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CK, doesn't Lindley's accuracy give you reason for pause? I see that he only completed 58% and he also has had a penchant for throwing picks. This in a conference not known for D and with skill position weapons.

Not to be a broken record, but Landry Jones led his team as they stormed back from way down against a stout Nebraska D in the Big 12 championship game. He also won a shootout with OK State. I realize Jones' stats may have been exaggerated by Kevin Wilson's high pace spread. But I still see some legit skills there.

I recently heard an interview with Bob Stoops on Dan Patrick's show. Stoops conceded that Jones doesn't do anything better than Bradford, but he really vouched for his work ethic and leadership. So, while Jones may not be a first overall talent, it seems valid to consider Jones in that 10th pick range where Miami may fall.

I'd clump Lindley, Tannehill, and Foles, after Jones, who in turn is behind Luck and Barkley. To me Luck and Barkley are top 3 picks. Jones could be a top 10 pick. Then Foles, Tannehill and Lindley later. But I don't pretend to have done the research that you guys have done.

Its obviously very fluid right now. These guys all bear watching, and it will be very interesting. This time last season, who had Cam Newton in the conversation, let alone the first overall pick?
 

TedSlimmJr

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I actually agree with you AT, Lindley's accuracy is sporadic, and always has been every year.... he's never reached the 60% completion percentage in 3 years as a starter. Although he may finally do it this year as a Senior, but I wouldn't bet on it considering the loss of legitimate weapons with NFL talent..

60% completion percentage is a critical benchmark for a quarterback to reach in a WCO like Al Borges ran... he turned Jason Campbell from a career underachiever, into a legitimate 1st round quarterback prospect in one season at Auburn.... the year they went undefeated and screwed out of a chance to play USC for the national championship...

Forget the numbers though.. watch the film. Lindley has a two way miss... he misses high and low to wide open receivers, and either leads them too far or throws behind them coming across the field... and I can't attribute it to footwork.

But it's his decision making at certain times that leaves me even more puzzled.... forcing throws into double coverage that just shouldn't be made by a quarterback with 3 years of starting experience.

What he does do well is throw with great anticipation.... and when he gets hot, it's easy to see his NFL potential. He needs to be more consistent, that's the one thing I need to see out of Lindley more than anything.

Landry Jones has a similar decision making flaw as Lindley that tends to reveal itself at awkward times..
 

jamvinny

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Great thread, J. Slimm, thanks for taking the time to post the photos. They were great.

Besides Miami's games, I am super focused on the Dolphins finally getting a qb. I like Landry Jones alot. He played well down the stretch, in second half of games. Like the Nebraska game, against a defense as good as there is in college. Also the OK State game. Stoops says he has a good work ethic and composure. He also has good footwork. He did play in a spread and had some dumb throws. Arm strength may not be superlative but seems adequate. But, I think playing in the clutch, footwork, composure, and work ethic are critical factors for determining NFL success. I'd make a play for him if I am Miami. You know Denver, Seattle, Washington, and Oakland are also making plays for qb's in the 2012 draft. Hopefully Miami finally aggressively gets a stud 1st rounder. Maybe Jones.
I agree with the poster.

Well done and thank you Dr Slimm for compiling and analysis
 

ckparrothead

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Ryan Tannehill was showing the ability to throw his receivers open by his 3rd start vs. Oklahoma, that is incredible. I've watched 3 years worth of film on quarterbacks before that never accomplished it...

My list of positives with Tannehill is long, but he needs to polish up on a few things as well. I look for him to do that as he gets another season's worth of experience under his belt. Tannehill has an "it" gene in him that's easy for me to see, whether it's at quarterback or receiver.. it's still there. The team responds to him in a way that you don't often see at the collegiate level...

The few minor mechanical flaws with Tannehill are correctable, it's simply a footwork issue.


Nick Foles is probably the guy I'm least comfortable with as a 1st round prospect...
I don't have Foles as a 1st round prospect. I think Simon does, but I don't see it. Come draft day we could be talking about him as a late round QB prospect, IMO.

One thing that stands out with Tannehill is watching him operate Mike Sherman's offense. It's not perfect, he doesn't always read everything right but he IS operating the thing and he's got a lot of responsibilities in it, and you can see the growth. Makes me think that by the time his senior year is done...he could be quite the polished prospect despite his lack of experience.
 

ckparrothead

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Truthfully, yes I do see the completion percentage but I try not to pay too much attention to it. I've seen accurate QBs with below 60% completion and I've seen inaccurate QBs with 70% completion. I try not to let it infect my thinking on a QB and when I watch Ryan Lindley play, accuracy actually STANDS OUT. I know not everyone is going to agree with that, but that's how it is. I see a cast of wide receivers that weren't very fast, could get bumped all over the place and thrown off their timing or position, and at times Lindley is throwing to a spot and so the ball looks inaccurate.

Long ball accuracy especially stands out. Vincent Brown is a 4.7 speed receiver. If you've got a guy with 4.3 speed you can throw that ball pretty inaccurately and the receiver's going to be able to run under it and have a chance. Think of the ball as a lawn dart and there's a big target circle with about a 10 yard circumference deep down the field. Just stick the ball anywhere in that circle and your receiver will run under it, or slow down and have a shot at the contested underthrow. With a 4.7 guy, that target circle is a LOT smaller. Lindley's got to be accurate on it. And I notice, he consistently is. It's a strength. He made a 4.7 guy look like one of the best deep threats in the country.

The decision-making is generally good, he sees the defense. But what he has in him is that Brett Favre...the stupid Brett Favre. Honestly that's one of the reasons I compare him with Matt Ryan. Ryan had that Favre stupidness in him at times too, gunslinging stuff that he shouldn't have. But you can rein that in, it's not that big a deal. Lindley needs to rein that in, and he needs to work on the consistency of his leverage while he's throwing, both from the pocket and on the run.
 

TedSlimmJr

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Foles isn't that bad, he won't be a late rounder... but probably more of a 2nd/3rd round prospect. I think people just look at him and see a BIG quarterback with an eye popping completion percentage and think he's a 1st rounder... I don't buy it.

He's the poster child of a system quarterback, with an inflated completion percentage due the offense. However, he is a good decision maker, and he's proven time and time again that he's very capable, and even comfortable pushing the football down the field. He throws a very good intermediate and deep ball.

I think Lindley's arm is probably a tad stronger than Foles... where as Foles and Landry Jones are just about equal in terms of arm strength.

The thing with Landry Jones that bothers me is he throws off his back foot more than any quarterback I've looked at. He needs serious work on his footwork... that's the big difference I see between him and Bradford. Bradford would follow through with his passes... which made his ball placement better. But one thing about Landry Jones, he can flick the ball from a variety of different angles, hell he has to because his footwork is so off most of the time. Bradford also had quicker feet than Jones... it's clear as day to me. Not to mention a stronger arm.


...and yes, Tannehill does have a lot of responsibility in Mike Sherman's offense. More than your typical college quarterback. Once he gets his footwork ironed out you'll stop seeing those passes that sail high of the target, but at least he has a consistent miss. He just doesn't always follow through with his mechanics and set his feet... just inexperience.


The bottom line for me is, when I look at Luck and Barkley, I see a completely different class of quarterback than the others. I don't even know which one I like better to tell you the truth. I think they're both destiny changing picks for the teams that get 'em.. I can't say that about the others.
 

jamvinny

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Ok, just finished watching Andrew Luck. I dont want to repeat what you all already know and has been said about Luck. By wow what a talent!

His vision, his quick decision making, mobility and pocket presence is outstanding.

He seems to have a grasp as to what he needs to do, how is supposed to do it and he just goes out there and executes plays with precision and extreme confidence.
 

Canadi-Phin

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I'm just hoping that somehow Carolina ends up last again and we can trade the farm and then somne to get either Luck or Barkley. Even if they are picking top 2 we could sneak in there and make a nice trade. The value of the trade is going to come back next because of the rookie wage scale. Going to be more action at the top I think.
 

Nappy Roots

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The bottom line for me is, when I look at Luck and Barkley, I see a completely different class of quarterback than the others. I don't even know which one I like better to tell you the truth. I think they're both destiny changing picks for the teams that get 'em.. I can't say that about the others.

I agree. I see a lot of "Talent" in this QB draft class. But I would give up the farm for those two. And I would draft some others in the 1st round. But if Henne falls on his face again this year, I think we HAVE to get up there to get one of those two QBs.
 
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