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2012 QB's

I'm just hoping that somehow Carolina ends up last again and we can trade the farm and then somne to get either Luck or Barkley. Even if they are picking top 2 we could sneak in there and make a nice trade. The value of the trade is going to come back next because of the rookie wage scale. Going to be more action at the top I think.

Though I agree somewhat . . . with Carolina not having to give up 40 million guaranteed to Newton, they could EASILY draft Andrew Luck next year with the top pick and make Newton expendable. I mean if they got the #1 pick, it isn't like Newton lit it up and I'm sure he would see action this year if Carolina starts fading. I dunno, if Andrew or Matt come into the draft with people saying things like "Clearly the Best QB prospects since Peyton Manning" . . . I couldn't see many teams passing that up, even if the trade offer is nice.

Detroit or St. Louis, who have so much invested into their QB's financially could pass . . . but Carolina and that wimpy Newton salary would roll the dice I feel.

However outside of "can't miss" QB prospects . . . yes, I do think the trade value chart will be more relevant and trades in the top 5 will be more doable with the new rookie wage scale.

Still would like Miami to be in the position to have all their picks and make offers for any of those guys.
 
just say no to almost 30 year old rookie qbs ie weeden...you guys can have nick foles...there's something buyer beware about landry jones also...not sure what it is though but i feel it in my gut...sam bradford all over again??? i don't think so

luck and barkley in that order...then everybody else
 
Very interesting discussion as I don't follow closely NCAA football. I will take a look on these guys all season long now with that great input from you guys!

What I find interesting form Miami standpoint is that a lot of teams are pretty much set at QB with all these guys picked in the 1st/2nd round in 2011. I would class NFL teams in 3 categories:

A- Definitely not looking for QBs for obvious reasons:
NE
NYJ
BAL
PIT
HOU
IND
JAX
TEN
SD
DAL
NYG
PHI
DET
GB
MIN
ATL
CAR
NO
TB
ARI
STL

B- Probably not looking for QBs:
CIN (Dalton)
CLE (McCoy)
DEN (Tebow)
KC (Cassell)
CHI (Cutler)
SF (Kaepernick)

C- Probably hungry for Qbs:
MIA
BUF
OAK
WAS
SEA

Obviously, when you're talking about Luck and Barkley, all of the "B" teams would certainly pull the trigger on a legitimate game-changer QB and even some "A" teams could do it and trade their incumbent or in-the-making franchise QB. But when we're out of this top 2 zone and we're talking about the other 1st round prospects, I'm pretty confident Miami will be able to select a very good prospect because all the "A" teams will 100% pass on a mid to late 1st round QB prospect and all the "B" teams probably would pass too as they will want to fill other needs with their 1st rounder.

That leaves the Dolphins against the 4 other "C" teams to select the QB of their choice in the mid 1st round. In these 4 teams, we also have 3 very good candidates for a top 3 pick with BUF, SEA and WAS. Teams that would take Luck and Barkley in a heartbeat...
 
I like that approach. Supply & Demand. I would modify your list though.

A- Definitely not looking for QBs:
NWE (Tom Brady...34 years old on draft day...but they just drafted Mallett)
NYJ (Mark Sanchez)
BAL (Joe Flacco)
PIT (Big Rapist)
HOU (Matt Schaub)
JAX (Blaine Gabbert)
TEN (Jake Locker)
SDG (Phil Rivers)
NYG (Eli Manning)
PHI (Michael Vick...Vince Young?)
DET (Matt Stafford)
GNB (Aaron Rodgers)
MIN (Christian Ponder)
ATL (Matt Ryan)
CAR (Cam Newton)
TAM (Josh Freeman)
STL (Sam Bradford)
CHI (Jay Cutler)
KAN (Matt Cassel...some whispers, but the timing isn't quite there yet)

B- Possibly looking for QBs:
IND (Peyton Manning...36 years old on draft day?)
DAL (Tony Romo...32 years old on Draft Day?)
NOR (Drew Brees...a 33 year old free agent?)
SEA (Tarvaris Jackson)
OAK (Jason Campbell)
ARI (Kevin Kolb...a total bust?)
CIN (Andy Dalton...only a 2nd rounder)
DEN (Tim Tebow?...TIM TEBOW???)
SF (Colin Kaepernick...only a 2nd rounder)
BUF (Ryan Fitzpatrick)

C- Should be desperate for QBs:
CLE (Colt McCoy...only a 3rd rounder and may not finish the year as starter, IMO)
MIA (Chad Henne...a free agent?)
WAS (John Beck...nuff said)

Of groups B and C, I put in italics the ones that should be bad enough to be in contention for a QB in the top half of the round. So in other words, I actually see about 9 teams that could be competing for QBs at the top half of the 1st round come next year.

I guess maybe I shouldn't put Arizona in there, given the huge contract they gave Kolb, but I wonder if that contract wasn't structured funny, and if they totally bottom out this year then I could see them just moving on quickly on that, trying to pretend that trade didn't happen, and/or taking a young stud that grooms and competes with Kolb who could continue to play while the young stud develops.
 
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If Carolina were to take Luck or Barkley, you'd think you could get a decent deal on Newton. I think Newton wins that team more games than people think, so I don't see them in position to draft either, and I don't see them wanting a new QB.
 
Here's where I think Luck and Barkley can stand out, and Slimm already touched upon it:

Mobility.

It's one thing to be a QB who prefers to run around and make plays with his feet. It's another thing to be a QB who thrives in the pocket but also has the athleticism to run around and make plays when needed. In the current NFL, the successful playoff QB's have the athleticism to buy time with their feet. In the playoffs D's are too good. The ability to make something out of nothing (like A. Rodgers or Big Ben) is paramount. On the other side of the coin, if you're M. Vick just running around because you have to, playoff D's can account for that as well.

I see Luck and Barkley as devastating pocket passers who also have the athleticism (especially in Luck's case) to make plays with his feet the way A. Rodgers does.

If Tannehill develops, he'd obviously be the most athletic of the three, but as everyone has already mentioned the gap between the top 2 QB's and everyone else in the class is huge.
 
If Carolina were to take Luck or Barkley, you'd think you could get a decent deal on Newton. I think Newton wins that team more games than people think, so I don't see them in position to draft either, and I don't see them wanting a new QB.

I don't think they would take a QB either . . . what I am implying is, if you have what experts are calling "2 sure fire QB's" in Luck and Barkley, and Carolina only giving Newton 4 years and 22 million or whatever the amount . . . instead of 40/50 million guaranteed to sign . . . why wouldn't a team roll the dice, especially if you threw Newton in there prior to midseason and he still got you the worse record in the NFL?

Same goes for Minnesota, Jville and Tennessee. With Miami fans willing to give up their entire draft and picks the folllowing year just to sniff a prospect like Barkley or Luck . . . can't see how Carolina couldn't look at that situation and say "If we draft this guy, we have a good problem, and probably could trade Newton/Clausen for a 1st or 2nd if we had to".

Who would you rather have if you were Carolina with the #1 pick?

Luck with the #1 overall and gain a 2nd round pick by trading Newton (or just keep him and have a "good problem")
or
Newton and gain an extra 1st the following year and a 2nd and 3rd this year (in addition to the first you get for trading down).

No doubt in my mind I take Luck. Of course this is all hypothetical and under the assumption Cam Newton was the starter midway int he seeason and still got Carolina the number 1 pick.

QB is such a critical position in today's NFL, if you got a chance at Manning Jr. You better take it, even if you took a guy early the year before . . . keep picking one until you hit that sure thing . . . and the rookie wage scale makes that possible now with high first rounders.
 
I like that approach. Supply & Demand. I would modify your list though.

A- Definitely not looking for QBs:
NWE (Tom Brady...34 years old on draft day...but they just drafted Mallett)
NYJ (Mark Sanchez)
BAL (Joe Flacco)
PIT (Big Rapist)
HOU (Matt Schaub)
JAX (Blaine Gabbert)
TEN (Jake Locker)
SDG (Phil Rivers)
NYG (Eli Manning)
PHI (Michael Vick...Vince Young?)
DET (Matt Stafford)
GNB (Aaron Rodgers)
MIN (Christian Ponder)
ATL (Matt Ryan)
CAR (Cam Newton)
TAM (Josh Freeman)
STL (Sam Bradford)
CHI (Jay Cutler)
KAN (Matt Cassel...some whispers, but the timing isn't quite there yet)

B- Possibly looking for QBs:
IND (Peyton Manning...36 years old on draft day?)
DAL (Tony Romo...32 years old on Draft Day?)
NOR (Drew Brees...a 33 year old free agent?)
SEA (Tarvaris Jackson)
OAK (Jason Campbell)
ARI (Kevin Kolb...a total bust?)
CIN (Andy Dalton...only a 2nd rounder)
DEN (Tim Tebow?...TIM TEBOW???)
SF (Colin Kaepernick...only a 2nd rounder)
BUF (Ryan Fitzpatrick)

C- Should be desperate for QBs:
CLE (Colt McCoy...only a 3rd rounder and may not finish the year as starter, IMO)
MIA (Chad Henne...a free agent?)
WAS (John Beck...nuff said)

Of groups B and C, I put in italics the ones that should be bad enough to be in contention for a QB in the top half of the round. So in other words, I actually see about 9 teams that could be competing for QBs at the top half of the 1st round come next year.

I guess maybe I shouldn't put Arizona in there, given the huge contract they gave Kolb, but I wonder if that contract wasn't structured funny, and if they totally bottom out this year then I could see them just moving on quickly on that, trying to pretend that trade didn't happen, and/or taking a young stud that grooms and competes with Kolb who could continue to play while the young stud develops.


Ill say this. For the A and b lists, if you have a melt down season, what exactly keeps you from drafting the man people are calling the 1st cant miss prospect since p manning. With the cost of rookies no longer castrating teams that miss on the pick, WHOEVER has the #1 pick will either take Luck (that is of course as long as he continues to look like the next p manning) or they will trade it away for a MASSIVE deal (im talking 2-3 #1 draft picks and 2-3 #2s.)

I will go so far as to guarantee that if a team from Group B has the #1 and Luck continues to be the #1 pick we are making him out to be, he will be chosen #1.

The only team up there who I would pretty much say would not take him would be the Rams (once again as long as Bradford does not get hurt)
 
Ill say this. For the A and b lists, if you have a melt down season, what exactly keeps you from drafting the man people are calling the 1st cant miss prospect since p manning. With the cost of rookies no longer castrating teams that miss on the pick, WHOEVER has the #1 pick will either take Luck (that is of course as long as he continues to look like the next p manning) or they will trade it away for a MASSIVE deal (im talking 2-3 #1 draft picks and 2-3 #2s.)

I will go so far as to guarantee that if a team from Group B has the #1 and Luck continues to be the #1 pick we are making him out to be, he will be chosen #1.

The only team up there who I would pretty much say would not take him would be the Rams (once again as long as Bradford does not get hurt)

Exactly, if these 2 guys are still these elite prospects come April 2012 . . . I don't see how any team drafting #1 or #2 can pass them up, don't really care what their QB situation is. If Sam Bradford leads the Rams to a 2-14 record in that weak division and they have the #1 pick . . . you think they pass? Nah, they won't.
 
I don't think anyone from Group A would take Andrew Luck...except maybe Kansas City. However, if they had that pick, then there would be enough demand from the teams in Groups B and C that they would most certainly sell that pick for a king's ransom. I think it would have to involve multiple high draft picks AND a pro bowl caliber player.

I don't think it's saying much to guarantee that if any team from Groups B or C get the #1 pick then Andrew Luck is going #1. I think Andrew Luck is going #1 regardless of who picks there, because he's the #1 player in the Draft.
 
Ill say this. For the A and b lists, if you have a melt down season, what exactly keeps you from drafting the man people are calling the 1st cant miss prospect since p manning. With the cost of rookies no longer castrating teams that miss on the pick, WHOEVER has the #1 pick will either take Luck (that is of course as long as he continues to look like the next p manning) or they will trade it away for a MASSIVE deal (im talking 2-3 #1 draft picks and 2-3 #2s.)

I will go so far as to guarantee that if a team from Group B has the #1 and Luck continues to be the #1 pick we are making him out to be, he will be chosen #1.

The only team up there who I would pretty much say would not take him would be the Rams (once again as long as Bradford does not get hurt)

That's exactly what I said in my post, some "A" teams would probably pull the trigger on a massive trade offer...
 
It is going to be so interesting come next year to see how the Luck and Barkley picks will shake out in the draft.

Something tells me that Jerry Jones is going to fall in love with one or both of these QBs and will do something spectacular to get either one of them.

Dont mind me guys just mere speculation to pass the time!
 
It is going to be so interesting come next year to see how the Luck and Barkley picks will shake out in the draft.

Something tells me that Jerry Jones is going to fall in love with one or both of these QBs and will do something spectacular to get either one of them.

Dont mind me guys just mere speculation to pass the time!

Dallas looking for a QB next year is EXTREMELY possible. Hell there are a bunch of Cowboy fans in South Florida and most of them "hate" Romo.
 
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