2021 NFL Draft: Ja'Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts headline Next Gen Stats' can't-miss prospects---NFL.COM | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

2021 NFL Draft: Ja'Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts headline Next Gen Stats' can't-miss prospects---NFL.COM

1972forever said:
Every year someone comes out with their, “can’t miss prospects”. Then you look back a few years and discover that nearly have of those prospects missed.
I would imagine 2 or 3 of this years “can’t miss” will be in that missed list a few years from now. I think the first on that list of missed will likely be Toney but maybe he will prove me wrong.
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His is purely, from the formula, based on his "99" athleticism score, it seems... :shrug:
 
Good article and I like their method of analysis. But, it bears mentioning that hand-timed forty times and other drills done at pro days tend to be less reliable and overly positive. For instance, most scouts take a hand timed 40 time and add one tenth of a second (0.1) to them. So if a kid runs a 4.4 at his Pro Day, they consider that to be a 4.5 if he were to be laser timed at the Combine. Since we had no real Combine it's what we have ... but it's not comparing apples to apples. Similarly, at their Pro Days, these athletes only run the drills that flatter them, and not the drills that make them look bad. So, again ... less and less accurate information.

Overall, I don't really disagree with the ranking or the analysis ... but the actual criteria elements are necessarily suspect. As an example, we can't compare a Jalen Waddle 40 time to a Henry Ruggs 40 time since there was no Combine this year. It's not fair to Ruggs, and it is incorrectly flattering to Waddle. But the NFL scouts know they're both blazingly fast with elite speed to scare safeties high.
 
Gatorboy999120 said:
Well I thought his time was closer to 4.38..But I digress!
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That was the number I recalled as well. But in reality, the 4.38 translates to about a 4.48, which is around where people expected him to run. Pitts' forty time should also be considered around a 4.5, which is quite remarkable and puts him in the Gesicki range but slightly faster.
 
Digital said:
That was the number I recalled as well. But in reality, the 4.38 translates to about a 4.48, which is around where people expected him to run. Pitts' forty time should also be considered around a 4.5, which is quite remarkable and puts him in the Gesicki range but slightly faster.
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I thought the same thing but a few folks in those circles really give credit to UF's pro day times while immediately dismiss LSU's. Not sure why that's the vibe.
 
Digital said:
That was the number I recalled as well. But in reality, the 4.38 translates to about a 4.48, which is around where people expected him to run. Pitts' forty time should also be considered around a 4.5, which is quite remarkable and puts him in the Gesicki range but slightly faster.
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Actually as I've posted before..Florida Pro Day times are typcially slower than Combine times for the 40...since 2013 only one player that went to a combine at Florida ran faster at his pro day..so Florida has a notoriously slow times compared to other combines..so in reality..since Florida players run on average 0.5% SLOWER at their pro day..Pitts is closer, in theory, to a true 4.4. Just a little inside info for ya, pal.

But in general, you're right!
 
CANDolphan said:
I thought the same thing but a few folks in those circles really give credit to UF's pro day times while immediately dismiss LSU's. Not sure why that's the vibe.
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See Below. I explained it.

And LSU has usually way faster times at their Pro Days..so the opposite is true!

Maybe that's why... :shrug:
 
Gatorboy999120 said:
www.nfl.com

2021 NFL Draft: Ja'Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts headline Next Gen Stats' can't-miss prospects

Who are the can't-miss players in the 2021 NFL Draft class? Mike Band dusts off the Next Gen Stats Draft Model, crunches the numbers and spotlights seven prospects.
www.nfl.com www.nfl.com

Interesting article..uses Next Gen Stats to predict the Top 7 "Can't miss" Prospects.

The Top 7 are as follows:

T-1. Ja'Marr Chase
T-1. Kyle Pitts
3. Micah Parsons
4. Patrick Surtain II
5. Jaycee Horn
6. Trevor Lawrence
7. Kadarius Toney
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Interesting find.
Can you dig up what they said last year and the year before? I want to know how accurate is their prediction?
 
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Gatorboy999120 said:
Actually as I've posted before..Florida Pro Day times are typcially slower than Combine times for the 40...since 2013 only one player that went to a combine at Florida ran faster at his pro day..so Florida has a notoriously slow times compared to other combines..so in reality..since Florida players run on average 0.5% SLOWER at their pro day..Pitts is closer, in theory, to a true 4.4. Just a little inside info for ya, pal.

But in general, you're right!
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Good point of reference, thanks!

But I still view this as every scout there did their own hand-timed numbers ... and I think the human lag still applies. See, the human starts the timer as a reaction to a sound, so there is a physical lag. But when the player is nearing the end of the run the human anticipates that ending and hits that end timer pretty much on time. That average lag is about one tenth of a second ... no matter what the official hand-timed number ends up being. If you want to do that realistically, videotape it, turn off the video, and have a sound that happens when the player crosses the finish line. Then have a player time the sounds, without the video ... and you will have normalized for the human lag a lot more than live human timing.
 
Digital said:
Good point of reference, thanks!

But I still view this as every scout there did their own hand-timed numbers ... and I think the human lag still applies. See, the human starts the timer as a reaction to a sound, so there is a physical lag. But when the player is nearing the end of the run the human anticipates that ending and hits that end timer pretty much on time. That average lag is about one tenth of a second ... no matter what the official hand-timed number ends up being. If you want to do that realistically, videotape it, turn off the video, and have a sound that happens when the player crosses the finish line. Then have a player time the sounds, without the video ... and you will have normalized for the human lag a lot more than live human timing.
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Np.

In general, you're 💯 right!
 
Gatorboy999120 said:
Actually as I've posted before..Florida Pro Day times are typcially slower than Combine times for the 40...since 2013 only one player that went to a combine at Florida ran faster at his pro day..so Florida has a notoriously slow times compared to other combines..so in reality..since Florida players run on average 0.5% SLOWER at their pro day..Pitts is closer, in theory, to a true 4.4. Just a little inside info for ya, pal.

But in general, you're right!
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:chuckle:

Blah blah blah...and then my favorite part...."But in general, you're right!"

:lol:

Sidenote: I got a chance to visit Reitz Union last summer...OMG! That place has had a total make over
 
ANUFan said:
:chuckle:

Blah blah blah...and then my favorite part...."But in general, you're right!"

:lol:

Sidenote: I got a chance to visit Reitz Union last summer...OMG! That place has had a total make over
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In general, pro day times are faster.

Not the case with UF pro days, historically.

Is that not factual?
 
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