2023 Runningback (Underclassman) | Page 5 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

2023 Runningback (Underclassman)

I know people prob prefer combine over pro day for measurements, but still wouldn't be shocked to see Keaton Mitchell knock another .05-.07 off his 40 time at ECU's pro day.

CJ Johnson should predominantly be the pass catcher for Ahlers, but also wouldn't shock me to see them let Mitchell show that he can run patterns too (not that he's slot wr material, just to show he can line up wide)
 
Super Duper Clayton said:
😻

Although it might be too good and he could get “expensive.”

Click to expand...


I hated that the scouts didnt request Keaton Mitchell to run again at his pro-day yesterday. I knew he'd hit 4.2's. He sounded upset to he wasnt asked to run because he thought he'd hit 4.2's.

They mainly asked him to return punts and do some catching and running drills. Under the impression he is a late day 2, early day 3 pick
 
I think the NFL knows Keaton Mitchell is fast, he does not need to prove it again. And an even faster time than his Combine run is probably not going to move the needle for him.

At his size he is likely going to be returning punts and catching passes out of the backfield and being part of a RB by committee situation.
 
It's interesting but I do find myself zigging where others zag on Jahmyr Gibbs.

I see a back that I like...but isn't going to stand out at the next level.

I think every single run has an associated amount of expected yardage that a running back can get just by executing, and it's based on the blocking, the defense that is called (crowded box, overloaded side, etc.), the execution of the run fits, and then the speed of the ball carrier which kind of changes the potentials for the play. Jahmyr Gibbs has really really good speed so it sort of increases his expected yardage on a lot of runs and that's a good thing.

But outside of that I'm not seeing a guy who consistently takes more than the play gave him. I'm just not. There are highlights, for sure. But the frequency and consistency are not there. And that's really concerning to me for a 5'9" & 199 lbs. running back because those guys need to be top notch elusive in order to be consistent standouts in the NFL. They're not being helped by their lack of size and heft.

Can't help it, that's what I see. And I think there are a plethora of analytics that paint the same picture. Good, not great, and it makes me think that at the end of the day you're getting a player that you can find a dozen of in free agency and pay them maybe like $2-3 million per year. Miami has two of those in Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson. And Mostert would qualify as well above that level if he weren't turning 31 years old next week.

As for the Alvin Kamara comparisons, I do actually see why he would remind you a bit of Alvin, but I think when you step back and see the forest for the trees you start to question how you can legitimately compare a 5'9" & 199 lbs. back who was 79th percentile in Elusiveness to a 5'10" & 214 lbs. back who was 97th percentile in Elusiveness.

Elusiveness btw is a simple calculation of broken tackles per attempt multiplied by yards after contact per attempt.
 
And when it comes to Dewayne McBride versus Tyjae Spears, there's one thing that stands out to me.

Both are players who 100% profiled as hyper-elusive runners who created a lot that the defense didn't give them. This is generally a good thing, but there's also something idiosyncratically neutral about it as just a player's style, his phenotype.

But the thing I notice is that when Dewayne McBride played a good defense LSU, even forgetting the level of overall offensive success, blocking, etc., his pattern and profile as a creator was stopped dead in its tracks. He was tackled by first tacklers. He gained maybe 1 or 2 yards after contact on the bulk of his touches. There wasn't any particular creativity there.

On the other hand I thought Tyjae Spears played some really solid teams and solid defenses toward the end of the year when he had to play a ranked Cincinnati just to get into the conference championship game, had to play UCF in the conference championship (for a second time that year), and then had to play a New Years bowl (Cotton Bowl) against USC. And what did he do in those games? Pretty much exactly what he did against the rest of his opponents. He created. He had double-digit broken tackles in each game. He got yards after contact. He was still the same player.

I think there's something to be said for showing the same strengths against strong opponents, as opposed to having your strengths just disappear.
 
I agree on Gibbs. He is an outside runner, receiver. He doesn’t break tackles and he doesn’t run inside.

I like Spears and McBride. I think they will both be good.
 
I also prefer Spears to McBride, in fact I probably would only put Robinson, Gibbs, Charbonnet ahead of him right now.

I am not sure he will make it to Miami's 3rd rounder.

As for Gibbs, I expect him to not be a draft option for Miami so I am not looking at him too hard. I think he suffers from the Kamara comparisons which are not fair and are not his fault.

Put in an offense who uses him in the passing game I expect him to be a quality NFL back, maybe not a star but a solid guy. Maybe like pach says, he will be a hopefully healthier Raheem Mostert.That would be pretty good all things considered.

Every time I look at the backs in this Draft it floors me how many good ones there are.

The 10th guy off the board might be as good as the 2nd.
 
Drafting an RB at 51 is just a misuse of resources. You can draft 80% of that player 3 rounds later or find in FA for relatively cheap.

Same thing with TEs

And you don’t need dynamic players at those positions because Tua, Tyreek and Waddle doing the heavy lifting. You just need guys who can exploit their opportunities

Hopefully we can trade 51 for multiple picks later so we can draft multiple non-premium players or it can be traded for a premium pick next season. But if we have to draft at 51, I hope it’s for a talent at a premium position who has slipped for whatever reason
 
Gibbs' value is his speed, acceleration, and receiving ability. Imo the Kamara comps are more about projected usage than style of play.

He'll excel in certain runs and has the speed to score from anywhere and gives you a dangerous check-down option - with the ability to run routes from the slot or outside in certain looks.

If you're drafting him to be a more traditional RB, I think you'll get what you deserve. Would feel bad for Gibbs, though.
 
Super Duper Clayton said:
Drafting an RB at 51 is just a misuse of resources. You can draft 80% of that player 3 rounds later or find in FA for relatively cheap.

Same thing with TEs

And you don’t need dynamic players at those positions because Tua, Tyreek and Waddle doing the heavy lifting. You just need guys who can exploit their opportunities

Hopefully we can trade 51 for multiple picks later so we can draft multiple non-premium players or it can be traded for a premium pick next season. But if we have to draft at 51, I hope it’s for a talent at a premium position who has slipped for whatever reason
Click to expand...
Agreed.

I am not touching Rb until R3 at the earliest and would prefer to do it with a 4th round pick that Miami does not have at the moment.

There are too many quality Day 3 options to take one early, unless it is Robinson.
 
ckparrothead said:
It's interesting but I do find myself zigging where others zag on Jahmyr Gibbs.

I see a back that I like...but isn't going to stand out at the next level.

I think every single run has an associated amount of expected yardage that a running back can get just by executing, and it's based on the blocking, the defense that is called (crowded box, overloaded side, etc.), the execution of the run fits, and then the speed of the ball carrier which kind of changes the potentials for the play. Jahmyr Gibbs has really really good speed so it sort of increases his expected yardage on a lot of runs and that's a good thing.

But outside of that I'm not seeing a guy who consistently takes more than the play gave him. I'm just not. There are highlights, for sure. But the frequency and consistency are not there. And that's really concerning to me for a 5'9" & 199 lbs. running back because those guys need to be top notch elusive in order to be consistent standouts in the NFL. They're not being helped by their lack of size and heft.

Can't help it, that's what I see. And I think there are a plethora of analytics that paint the same picture. Good, not great, and it makes me think that at the end of the day you're getting a player that you can find a dozen of in free agency and pay them maybe like $2-3 million per year. Miami has two of those in Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson. And Mostert would qualify as well above that level if he weren't turning 31 years old next week.

As for the Alvin Kamara comparisons, I do actually see why he would remind you a bit of Alvin, but I think when you step back and see the forest for the trees you start to question how you can legitimately compare a 5'9" & 199 lbs. back who was 79th percentile in Elusiveness to a 5'10" & 214 lbs. back who was 97th percentile in Elusiveness.

Elusiveness btw is a simple calculation of broken tackles per attempt multiplied by yards after contact per attempt.
Click to expand...
Very interesting post ck!
 
I keep coming back to how big is the difference between Duece Vaughn and everyone else not named Bijan

Besides height I don’t think much, this kid uses his size to his advantage, his cuts and stop start quickness is devastating, he’s got very good hands and runs sharp routes and he’s built like a young Maurice Jones Drew..

He gets swallowed in pass protection on occasion but hey..he will stick his nose in the guys belly :)

Just guarantee me that guy without using my 2nd or 3rd and I’d take it right now
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom