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26 points and NFL scoring analysis

Fins1971

Fins1971

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26 has been the magic number for the Miami Dolphins this year. When the Dolphins score 26 or more points they are 9-0. I suspect they will need to do it again to beat Pittsburgh this Sunday.

After 256 NFL regular season games here is a breakdown of scoring in those games.

Winners outscored Losers 7140 to 4521. That equates to a 27.9 to 17.7 score for the average game. 45.6 points were scored on average.
I think these are good marks to shoot for on both sides of the ball. If the offense scores 28 or more you have above an 80% chance of winning. Same goes for the defense. If they hold the opponent under 18 then you have better than 80% chance of winning.

Scoring, Record

<18 28-140-1
18 0-2
19 8-6
20 8-19
21 9-11
22 7-4
23 9-15
24 17-14
25 6-6
26 13-5
27 24-10-1
>28 125-23

Hopefully we have a few more 30 point games in us. Not sure we are holding anyone in the playoff to under 18.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Just score 1 more point than them.
 
Fins1971 said:
26 has been the magic number for the Miami Dolphins this year. When the Dolphins score 26 or more points they are 9-0. I suspect they will need to do it again to beat Pittsburgh this Sunday.

After 256 NFL regular season games here is a breakdown of scoring in those games.

Winners outscored Losers 7140 to 4521. That equates to a 27.9 to 17.7 score for the average game. 45.6 points were scored on average.
I think these are good marks to shoot for on both sides of the ball. If the offense scores 28 or more you have above an 80% chance of winning. Same goes for the defense. If they hold the opponent under 18 then you have better than 80% chance of winning.

Scoring, Record

<18 28-140-1
18 0-2
19 8-6
20 8-19
21 9-11
22 7-4
23 9-15
24 17-14
25 6-6
26 13-5
27 24-10-1
>28 125-23

Hopefully we have a few more 30 point games in us. Not sure we are holding anyone in the playoff to under 18.
Click to expand...

Only can do that against the teams we aren't going to ever play. Oakland and Houston. They can't score 30 on a pee wee team
 
Interesting to me how more points can equal a lower winning percentage. It really is more important to have more scoring drives.

Take the following 2 scoring scenarios

19 8-6
20 8-19

The teams scoring 19 points have a winning record while the teams scoring a point more have a very poor record.

5 scoring possessions will win most games. 4 puts you in iffy land.

27 and 28 are the same. The percentage is better when you score 27 rather than 28. That extra scoring possession even if it is a FG keeps the other team from scoring.
 
We need our special teams (kick/punt) to come up with big play, otherwise think it may be difficult to get to the 26 number on the road in Pitt. We know Franks can't be relied on for much, a lot going against this team with regards to our defense and kicker. Still hopeful we will come in with a good game plan on offense, and make this a competitive game, fins up!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
It looks like there were around 2079 scoring drives (850 FG and 1229 TD) in the 256 games played. So the average number of scoring drives per game is just above 8. So when one team has 5 scoring drives in a game you are better than the average and limit the others teams ability to create scoring drives. 3.3 FG's and 4.8 TD's are scored every game on average.

The Dolphins have the best TD to FG attempt ratio of any team in the NFL at over 2-1 (46 TD's and only 21 FG attempts) Seems kind of weird since our Red Zone offense is middle of the road at 15th best.
 
46 TD's scored by the Dolphins is the most they have had since 1995 when they also scored 46 TD's. That was Don Shula's last year as our coach. Gase did what all those other coaches in between couldn't.
 
Fins1971 said:
46 TD's scored by the Dolphins is the most they have had since 1995 when they also scored 46 TD's. That was Don Shula's last year as our coach. Gase did what all those other coaches in between couldn't.
Click to expand...

Yes - Gase made us look like a real team this year (after the 1-4 start of course).
 
We are allowing 24 points per game so it would make sense that we should score 26? :idk:
 
Fins1971 said:
Interesting to me how more points can equal a lower winning percentage. It really is more important to have more scoring drives.

Take the following 2 scoring scenarios

19 8-6
20 8-19

The teams scoring 19 points have a winning record while the teams scoring a point more have a very poor record.

5 scoring possessions will win most games. 4 puts you in iffy land.

27 and 28 are the same. The percentage is better when you score 27 rather than 28. That extra scoring possession even if it is a FG keeps the other team from scoring.
Click to expand...

AGREED. Perhaps looking at the NUMBER of SCORING POSSESSIONS is MORE indicative of victory than points?:idk:
Seems logical that if your OFFENSE has the ball more AND SCORES, that means there are LESS opportunities for the opposition to score...
 
Perfect72 said:
AGREED. Perhaps looking at the NUMBER of SCORING POSSESSIONS is MORE indicative of victory than points?:idk:
Seems logical that if your OFFENSE has the ball more AND SCORES, that means there are LESS opportunities for the opposition to score...
Click to expand...

Yeah if you look at our recent games they fall right into the average NFL game scenario for scoring possessions.

NE beat us by having 6 scoring drive to our 2
The Bills game was a bit of an anomaly. We had 6 to their 5
We beat the Jets by having 5 scoring drives to 3.
Against Arizona both teams scored 4 times in regulation and the 5th by us in OT won the game.
Baltimore had 5 scoring possessions to our 2
We beat SF having 5 scoring possession to their 4

In all these games 5 scoring possessions results in a win except for Buffalo who had 5 and still got beat by 6.

But if you score 5 times you have a pretty good chance of winning the game.
 
Playoff scores so far this year

Houston Texans Oakland Raiders 27 14
Seattle Seahawks Detroit Lions 26 6
Pittsburgh Steelers Miami Dolphins 30 12
Green Bay Packers New York Giants 38 13
Atlanta Falcons Seattle Seahawks 36 20
New England Patriots Houston Texans 34 16
Green Bay Packers Dallas Cowboys 34 31
Pittsburgh Steelers Kansas City Chiefs 18 16

7 of the 8 winners score 26 or more points.
6 of the 8 winners allow 17 of fewer points.
 
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