3ypc 1.14: Madden-ethan Skolnick

JahnDho

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Vegas win totals are about 0.83 correlated with your record from last year. I think the correlation is even higher with your 5 year average win total.

You look at a Vegas win total, you should interpret it as nothing more than a mathematical construct reflecting 1) your average win totals over the last 5 years, and 2) your win total a year ago. That's basically it.

Coach hot seat odds are derived off almost exclusively off the win total projections and your previous win total.

You take the teams with the worst win totals, scrub out the ones that have a head coach in their first or second year, maybe scrub out a few special situations, and there you have it.

So let's run through all these scub-outs and special situations.

Todd Bowles (5-11) just signed a new contract in New York to specifically get him off the hot seat. The Colts (4-12) have a new head coach Frank Reich. The Raiders (6-10) have a new head coach Jon Gruden. The Giants (3-13) have a new head coach Pat Shurmur. The Bears (5-11) have a new head coach Matt Nagy.

The 49ers (6-10) have a 2nd year head coach who got "his" franchise quarterback, and finished the year winning 6 out of 7 games. He's not going anywhere NEAR the top of these futures lists.

The Texans (4-11) have a coach Bill O'Brian who went 9-7 with the Texans three years in a row and got them into the playoffs twice, and he went 3-3 with their hot young rookie QB before he got hurt. This is not the type of coach that is going to go high on the hot seat futures.

Basically just leaves you with the MOST obvious one (and Vegas communicated that he's the most obvious one) Hue Jackson...followed by a group that basically just includes Adam Gase, Dirk Koetter, Vance Joseph, Jay Gruden, and Marvin Lewis.

Why aren't those other guys up above Gase? I'm not sure it matters first off, because the odds are all pretty long anyway. But this is where some subjectivity really comes into it.

The Bengals are notoriously cheap, and notoriously stubborn. They don't operate like the rest of the NFL, in a lot of ways, including firing the head coach. Lewis has been on the hot seat list for ages and he's never fired. This is like the opposite of the New England Patriots. History has shown that even though you may think Marvin Lewis should be atop the hot seat charts, there's no use bothering to do that because the Bengals just won't fire him.

Vance Joseph should be above Gase but ultimately he's only in his 2nd year and I think last year he had even worse quarterbacks than Miami did. The market believes Case Keenum is far better than what they had. He's so close to Gase in the odds I'm not sure the separation matters much anyhow.

The one that is baffling is Dirk Koetter. I just don't even know what that's all about. He should clearly be on top of some of these hot seat futures lists. But it could be a situation where unbeknownst to me since I'm not a Tampa Bay fan or follower, the owners are known to love Koetter or be unusually committed to him.
Now, here’s some content
 

The Goat

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I don’t think that comment meant what you think it does
Back in college, there was a fantastic series of seminars I went to...basically, workshops...that helped with transitioning book knowledge into practical application in the Public Relations field. The head of the Philly Chapter of the Public Relations Society of America set it up, and invited PR professionals to offer their insights for this purpose. They did so free of charge. Tremendously nice folks.

There was this one student who chewed up an inordinate amount of time during the Q&A at the end basically making counterpoints to every speaker with what they suggested. Once a week, for four weeks. Now, keep in mind, this guy wasn't a seasoned professional like the speakers. He was a student. He just felt the need to critique the speakers for God knows what reason, suggesting ways that things could be done better, etc. He'd done that all year in every class, just arguing for the sake of arguing most of the time.

On the last day of the last seminar, the president of the PRSA chapter took his turn. Captain Combative had his hand up for the Q&A again...but he was told "I will come to you last." After all of the other questions had been fielded, the president of the chapter said to him (paraphrased), "I don't know why you feel the need to be combative and critical of everything. When you have accomplished what the people who put their time in here have accomplished, feel free to do your own seminar, and impart your (air quotes) wisdom to those you can get to attend. For now, you're just wasting everyone's time and coming off as a complete jerk. And by the way, you basically pissed off the heads of four major PR firms in Philly over the last four weeks. I wish you luck in your job search."

That's what I meant when I told him "I look forward to your podcast." While I have no doubt he has some insight, it's so shrouded in self-centered, condescending arrogance that it'll never see the light of day. CK and his crew do damn good work. Is every second a gem? No. But am I going to offer a detailed critique when he didn't ask for one? No. You know why not? BECAUSE HE DIDN'T ASK FOR ONE, AND I DON'T HAVE A PODCAST.

For now, I'm going to take Fin Fan In Cali's advice and put him on ignore. That's two people in fifteen freaking years. Jesus. I even dealt with Shouright.

My apologies to everyone else.
 

Superself

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Now, here’s some content
The podcast was still interesting despite there being hardly any news Dolphins related to come out within the past week.
I listen to the podcast because the chemistry and insight are spot on. They don't take themselves too seriously and have opinions that are well grounded and logical. I may not agree with every opinion or dig everything that is not Dolphins related, but the experience still isn't diminished in any way because these guys don't trip over themselves and seem authentic.
 

Pandarilla

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Vegas win totals are about 0.83 correlated with your record from last year. I think the correlation is even higher with your 5 year average win total.

You look at a Vegas win total, you should interpret it as nothing more than a mathematical construct reflecting 1) your average win totals over the last 5 years, and 2) your win total a year ago. That's basically it.

Coach hot seat odds are derived off almost exclusively off the win total projections and your previous win total.

You take the teams with the worst win totals, scrub out the ones that have a head coach in their first or second year, maybe scrub out a few special situations, and there you have it.

So let's run through all these scub-outs and special situations.

Todd Bowles (5-11) just signed a new contract in New York to specifically get him off the hot seat. The Colts (4-12) have a new head coach Frank Reich. The Raiders (6-10) have a new head coach Jon Gruden. The Giants (3-13) have a new head coach Pat Shurmur. The Bears (5-11) have a new head coach Matt Nagy.

The 49ers (6-10) have a 2nd year head coach who got "his" franchise quarterback, and finished the year winning 6 out of 7 games. He's not going anywhere NEAR the top of these futures lists.

The Texans (4-11) have a coach Bill O'Brian who went 9-7 with the Texans three years in a row and got them into the playoffs twice, and he went 3-3 with their hot young rookie QB before he got hurt. This is not the type of coach that is going to go high on the hot seat futures.

Basically just leaves you with the MOST obvious one (and Vegas communicated that he's the most obvious one) Hue Jackson...followed by a group that basically just includes Adam Gase, Dirk Koetter, Vance Joseph, Jay Gruden, and Marvin Lewis.

Why aren't those other guys up above Gase? I'm not sure it matters first off, because the odds are all pretty long anyway. But this is where some subjectivity really comes into it.

The Bengals are notoriously cheap, and notoriously stubborn. They don't operate like the rest of the NFL, in a lot of ways, including firing the head coach. Lewis has been on the hot seat list for ages and he's never fired. This is like the opposite of the New England Patriots. History has shown that even though you may think Marvin Lewis should be atop the hot seat charts, there's no use bothering to do that because the Bengals just won't fire him.

Vance Joseph should be above Gase but ultimately he's only in his 2nd year and I think last year he had even worse quarterbacks than Miami did. The market believes Case Keenum is far better than what they had. He's so close to Gase in the odds I'm not sure the separation matters much anyhow.

The one that is baffling is Dirk Koetter. I just don't even know what that's all about. He should clearly be on top of some of these hot seat futures lists. But it could be a situation where unbeknownst to me since I'm not a Tampa Bay fan or follower, the owners are known to love Koetter or be unusually committed to him.
 
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