3ypc On Dolphins Maven - Ne Preview

ckparrothead

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https://footballmaven.io/dolphins/gm-report/3ypc-corner-predicting-a-miami-dolphins-loss-in-new-england-seVyy_z7vUiXLfMIqYjU2A/

by CK

I have been, and remain very optimistic about the 2018 Miami Dolphins. If you doubt that, just go ahead and read my tweet storm of 35 reasons to be optimistic about the Dolphins in 2018. I wrote that in May, at a time when prognosticators and book makers were projecting the Dolphins to be one of the worst teams in the NFL.


I predicted the Dolphins to beat the Tennessee Titans. They won. I predicted the Dolphins to win against the New York Jets. They won. I predicted a Dolphins victory against the Oakland Raiders. They won that game, too. If I've really got to beat my own drum, I'll even point out that my Dolphins score projections (27 points, 20 points, and 29 points, respectively) have only been off by one point this year.

But alas, now I am projecting the Dolphins to...
For those that have been following me on Twitter and have enjoyed my game review/preview tweet storms, this Preview is like those except in a little bit longer form.

Thanks.
 

ckparrothead

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The injury news on Miami is good, but expected, with Reshad Jones and Cam Wake looking like they will play.

The injury news on the Patriots is not good for us, though. Trey Flowers and Patrick Chung looking like they'll play is a big deal.
 

FSU Truth

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Here is what will unfortunately happen, the Dolphins will lose (they really just need to win one of the next two) and some will take the loss as the team begins their typical fall after a few wins. From everything we have seen, the team is built to withstand adversity. Yes, they will most likely lose, but most teams will lose in New England, Bill is still Bill and Tom is still Tom, but we are seeing the cracks and I feel very good to get one back at the end of the season in Miami.

I was firm on 10-6 as long as Tannehill stays healthy and this was one of the games I saw as one of those 6 losses. Regardless of what happens on Sunday, this Miami team does seem different and I expect us to be in a very good position come bye week to make a run at not only the playoffs but also a division title.

Also, excellent work. Between this and Locked on I have my commutes covered with Dolphins content.
 

ckparrothead

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I personally believe the Dolphins will drop their next two games.

But people should not be particularly disheartened by that. They will be anyway, and all the old narratives will come out, of course. Until the Dolphins rattle off like 6 wins in their next 7 games.
 

Bopkin02

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Winning in Cincy will be tough, but not like winning in NE. I could see losing both, but it wouldn't surprise me to split.
 

Superself

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I appreciate all of you guys' predictions for Miami to lose but I disagree. I think this Miami team is different. I don't think Belichick is quite ready for what we will do. Gronk will be a problem as usual but Brady will get sacked and harassed throughout the day. Miami will win the turnover and field position battle as they have been. The Patriots will have no answer for Wilson or Grant. I believe Gase will unleash them both for even more snaps in this game.

Dolphins 28
Patriots 17
 

DANTODUPER

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https://footballmaven.io/dolphins/gm-report/3ypc-corner-predicting-a-miami-dolphins-loss-in-new-england-seVyy_z7vUiXLfMIqYjU2A/



For those that have been following me on Twitter and have enjoyed my game review/preview tweet storms, this Preview is like those except in a little bit longer form.

Thanks.
Thanks ! As always a great material.
I honestly dont understand why at home we were able to defeat the Pats with Cutler last year and on 2015 with players like Hewitt, Shepard and Shelby (to name a few) starting because of injuries. Is Home field advantage that huge? or the Pats have some unthinkable cheating methods at home? Or is it just a matter of mentallity by our players? In 2015 the Pats needed the win and we were playing for nothing. It might be good to try playing them without fear and maybe try something crazy things like giving a false gameplan at halftime to avoid spying, or giving Tanny false plays when comunicating trough his Helmet in case they intercept the signal. It Is really hard to explain why we are going to lose there, while we have defeated them with less talented teams and less talented coaches. Last time we were victorious there they were not prepared for the wildcat and Ronnie didnt have a comunication system in his helmet. Lets try lots of creative tricky plays, and let Tanny decide the plays without comunication on a no huddle and call audibles when needed at the beggining of the game and see what happens.
 

ckparrothead

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Hey I want to believe as well.

There's a certain amount of 'faith' involved in this projection, I will admit. It's faith that Bill Belichick still has the ability to accurately assess Miami's defensive weaknesses, and still has the ability to accurately assess what has and has not been working for his own team.

If he does still have that ability, then he uses Sony Michel to hit Miami with a single-back, 11-personnel based run attack. And it has an excellent chance of working, particularly as they start putting Josh Gordon on the field in addition to Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett, with of course Rob Gronkowski.

And if Belichick still has those abilities, he also hits Miami with passes to guys like Dwayne Allen, or Chris Hogan off play-action, out of 12-personnel, because Miami quite frankly sucks at defending the pass out of their Base defense.

Doing this all at HOME tends to give you a boost.

The flip side of the coin is what Miami's offense can do to New England. And again, a certain amount of faith is involved, but not unreasonably so.

The Patriots have a very strong history of LEVERAGING their defensive personnel toward the pass. They've faced 1-WR personnel on 10 snaps but only marched out 3 goal line packages against them. They've faced 2-WR personnel on 63 snaps but only marched out a Base package 32 snaps. They've faced 3-WR personnel 125 times, but have used Nickel on 156 snaps. And finally, they've used Dime on 23 snaps, and Prevent (7-DBs) on 8 more snaps, even though they've only faced 11 snaps with 4-WR personnel on the field.

So you put out a 2-WR package and you're only going to see NE's Base 4-3 on the field only about 40-50% of the time. If you go to 3-WR personnel, you may see a Dime or even Prevent as much as 10-20% of the snaps.

They're gaming the system based on their analytical regressions of situational football.

So what does that mean for us?

I think the Patriots coaches would actually argue that with Mike Gesicki as your tight end (thinner, weak blocker), and your two running backs BOTH being halfbacks instead of having a fullback out there, they should potentially be going Nickel EVERY time we bring out 12-personnel or 21-personnel. Additionally, they would probably argue that when Miami goes 13-personnel or 22-personnel, they should only go to Base and never bring out their Goal Line unless they're actually on the Goal Line.

When Miami goes to 3-WR personnel, I think the Patriots COULD be liberal with their use of Dime. Miami has established some strong run success out of Nickel. That could scare the Patriots out of this approach. But I don't think so, because Miami's ground success versus Nickel defenses has been predicated on SPEED and MISDIRECTION.

If I were the Patriots, quite frankly, I'd rather have the six defensive backs (three safeties Devin McCourty, Duron Harmon, and Patrick Chung, along with three corners Stephon Gilmore, Jason McCourty, and Jonathan Jones) out there...as opposed to making sure I've got that second linebacker on the field (Kyle Van Noy).

What could Miami do to counter this?

I think you've got to make a strong argument that having Albert Wilson and Jakeem Grant on the field at the same time is like having at least ONE halfback on the field. The run threat is there. So Miami could legit get out into a 01-personnel against New England's Dime package, with Kenny Stills, Danny Amendola, Jakeem Grant, and Albert Wilson, and they would MAINTAIN the run threat.

Off the top of my head, I'm thinking of doing a shovel pass to Albert Wilson working off a Jakeem Grant fake jet sweep, which is what we've seen Kansas City do with Tyreek Hill and Albert Wilson. Or perhaps even a shovel pass to Gesicki that way, as we've seen at Penn State.

Also, last week Miami put out a 13-personnel look and then threw to Kenny Stills in the end zone. He was open. Tannehill missed it. They could try and explore 13-personnel passing against New England's Base 4-3. I don't know that this really favors Miami, certainly from a numbers standpoint, but they may feel a little different about the personnel and spacing, if they're able to isolate one particular guy. Or maybe they feel like they can finally run the ball out of 13-personnel. They haven't shown any ability to do that yet, but who knows?

I think if the Pats pull out Dime and we've got to pass on that, you're going to have to try and get bigger bodied guys like Mike Gesicki and DeVante Parker to win. Or your slot guy has to win against Jonathan Jones. Obviously Amendola and Jones know each other very well. Maybe Amendola has some feelings about who won the vast majority of those training camp and practice matchups.

It's not a closed case by any means. I just don't like the failpoints that are set up for Miami in this game. The things they have to successfully do to end up winning it...I'm just not comfortable predicting there's a better than 50/50 chance they'll do them.
 

jovanwolf

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CK, I really appreciate your analysis on these things. Does help understand some of the gamesmanship that goes into the game of football and why good coaching is paramount. That said, I also think there can be a little over thinking of these situations. Perhaps Gase may leave some room for "gut feeling" plays and just testing out what is working against them during the game and riding the player with the hot hands. So many things can go into this. I for one am hoping to see some new looks, innovative plays, and usage of our skill players like Grant/Wilson/Drake more.
 
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