3YPC-(Tank2Far-Pats Preview) Episode 2.89

Section126

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In this Episode, the guys talk about whether this "Tank Job" has gone a bit too far, or been done just right, in what they estimate is a blatant attempt to "play" their way into the #1 pick in the NFL Draft, to take Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa. They also debate whether some players on this team are not built for the pain of a "managed decline." They close with a preview of the New England Patriots as they come into town to face the Miami Dolphins.


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isaacjunk

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Great listen as always...it does seem like Simon was underestimating how hard it is to 'guarantee' the 1st pick. Even if you agree that the dolphins are the worst team, because of variance over only 16 games, you probably have to be historically bad to get the probability of having the worst record to be 95% or greater.

I wonder if Ross' earlier requirements of wanting to suck but win 5-6 games have undergone a strategic shift. I could easily see Grier coming back to Ross during the preseason and saying:
- We don't think Rosen is the answer
- Tua is heads and shoulders above the others
- It will be painful, but the only way to truly set ourselves up with confidence is to go wholehog. How about we sell off for assets and then really go for the 1st pick?

This could have played into their valuation of Tunsil as well, Tua being left-handed. And notice the sell off really accelerated after a few weeks into the preseason.

And, note that on betonline, as of Aug 29 (before tunsil trade) Miami had only a +300 odds of getting the worst record, which works out to 75%. Seems like the Tunsil trade made a lot of sense at that moment:
- push the odds of getting Tua to ~85%
- avoid soon overpaying for a premium LT with a left handed QB
- boost the value of all of your other original draft picks
 

ATL_PHIN_FAN

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Great listen as always...it does seem like Simon was underestimating how hard it is to 'guarantee' the 1st pick. Even if you agree that the dolphins are the worst team, because of variance over only 16 games, you probably have to be historically bad to get the probability of having the worst record to be 95% or greater.

I wonder if Ross' earlier requirements of wanting to suck but win 5-6 games have undergone a strategic shift. I could easily see Grier coming back to Ross during the preseason and saying:
- We don't think Rosen is the answer
- Tua is heads and shoulders above the others
- It will be painful, but the only way to truly set ourselves up with confidence is to go wholehog. How about we sell off for assets and then really go for the 1st pick?

This could have played into their valuation of Tunsil as well, Tua being left-handed. And notice the sell off really accelerated after a few weeks into the preseason.

And, note that on betonline, as of Aug 29 (before tunsil trade) Miami had only a +300 odds of getting the worst record, which works out to 75%. Seems like the Tunsil trade made a lot of sense at that moment:
- push the odds of getting Tua to ~85%
- avoid soon overpaying for a premium LT with a left handed QB
- boost the value of all of your other original draft picks
That is all certainly a possibility. Chris Grier has never struck me as suicidal, career wise. It seems likely to me that something along those lines has occurred. I'm thinking the only way Grier gets the ax in the next year or so is if his picks are clearly putrid. As for Coach Flores? As long as there is improvement over time with the players he has, he'll be ok.
 
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