7 ways we might win or lose this game | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

7 ways we might win or lose this game

Dimahnbloe

Rookie
Joined
Sep 8, 2004
Messages
19
Reaction score
7
I'm worried about this game vs the jets and here is why...

While re- watching last weeks game on DVR, I noticed something that immediately got me thinking that we may have our hands full in this up coming game: A good number of the passes that were completed by our QB were routs that the wide receiver had to come back and get. While I am pretty sure that most of them were by design, I believe the fact that they seemed to be the only type of passes that were getting completed had more to do with Chad's limited "field of view" because of his inexperience in going through the progressions of his reads than the fact that no one was getting open down field. The bills had a pretty banged up and inexperienced secondary but we rarely got passes completed into the middle of the field.

This brings us to the reason why I am concerned. On Monday night we will be playing a completely different type of secondary than what we played vs. the bills. The Bills secondary was inexperienced thus quite a bit less aggressive than what we should expect from the jets. Except for Gin, we have exceptional quickness in our wide-receivers, but very little speed. What does this mean? Well, for an experienced and accurate QB like Pennington the system works very well, he can work in very tight places because his game is about ball placement and timing. This generally allows a wide-receiver with quick feet and good route running to create just enough separation from the defender to catch a well thrown and placed foot ball. I believe this is why Pennington had his "extra sessions" with the wide receivers. Form him it wasn't just a matter of doing extra home work, timing and positioning was life and death when it came to game day.

For a QB in Hennes current learning state, this game could turn ugly and at a very rapid pace, as stated earlier, in the Jets, we are playing what will be a more aggressive and athletic secondary. Facing a secondary that has no respect for the opposing wide receivers generally means that our five to 10 yard cushion that we had with the bills just turned into an immediate bump and run coverage. What this creates to the jet defenses advantage is a situation where there is little room for error on the part of the opposing QB. The QB will have little room to work in and very little time to get this work done. A hard task for any veteran QB, but an almost impossible task for an inexperienced QB making his second start. While Pennington would thrive in this type of environment with our type of receivers, Henne will be forced to make quick decisions that he may not have the experience to make correctly. This will lead to him not going through the full progression of his reads and ultimately into locking on to a receiver, hoping he gets open fast enough form him to get rid of the ball to him. This situation will almost certainly lead to at least 1 interception for a touchdown by their defense or at the very least to field goals that we wont be able to afford in a grind it out game.


In addition to the concerns mentioned above, listed below are my keys to winning or loosing this game. I did not mention the obvious things such not turning the ball over, scoring in the red zone, and protecting Chad Henne because you already know those. if you have other points you think that are more important post it. in a reply just make include details.


We may loose this game if we...

1. Try to simply run and pound our way to a victory. WHY???
Rex Ryan is ****y about his defenses ability to stop the run and his cb's ability to defend the pass. Since our wide outs have been an almost non factor this season he will almost certainly rather leave them out there matched up one on with our receivers than face the embarrassment of picking up a Tuesday morning paper stating that we ran the ball down his throat. He will commit everything he has to stopping the run, linebackers, safeties and all.

2. Have wide receiver routs that require them to comeback for the ball. WHY??
This is the biggest concern of mine and is what really lead to this thread. Those come back to the ball routes are so risky, they scare the hell out of me, especially on third down. As stated earlier, if the pass rushers apply just enough pressure and Rex's CB's have no respect for our wide-outs and are play tight man or bump and run coverage, that only leaves 5 to 10 yards of football field to play with before the quarterback may need to get rid of the ball. While Pennington would excel here, I am afraid the Henne with his lack of experience will panic, lock onto one area of the field, throw it early, and the corner back gets an easy pick six like Vontae did by anticipating and then jumping the route. This is even more important on third downs because the corner can gauge and anticipate how far the wide receiver will go, therefore making it easier to cut in front of the reciever. I also believe this to be the key to the game because if the Jets can limit our runners to 3 to 4 yards a carry, that will create alot 3rd and 2or3's that we will be hesitant to try to convert by simply running the ball. The more third down passing attempts that are made the more opportunity for mistake there will be for a young QB to through a pick 6 on those type of routes. Can Henne handle the pressure and not panic, lock down onto an area, or throw the ball to early?? 3 to 4 times maybe? 7 to 10 times might play into what the Jet defense is hoping for. Let's pray for a good day pounding the ball in big chunks.

3. Believe Rex Ryan when they talk about pounding the ball. WHY??
Well let's just say that we have no proof of being able to stop passes thrown to the middle of the field and would be foolish if we don't prepare for the onslaught of slants that will go in that. We would be foolish to not prepare for it and they would be foolish to not attempt a proven formula for beating us. This whole we are going to be a physical team and run the ball at them could be a clever media ploy to further focus our attention away from what they plan on attempting to do through the air. I am not sure about this one though... He maybe stupid enough to actually telegraph his game plan and crazy enough to stick with it even if it is not working. After all, he is Jet right???

4. Our wide receivers don't fight for positioning on routs and for the ball. WHY??
We will be playing in tight quarters. If our line can't protect Henne in the early stages of the game prepare for a bunch of quick slants towards the middle of the field. If our wide-outs don't get to the intended area fast enough or don't fight for positioning we will either end up with incomplete passes or picks by the Jet defense. Patrick Turner, Haynos and Camaril1o would be key in this situation. If Henne could get rid the ball quickly and high enough for them to either catch it or bat it down depending on the positioning of the cornerback, we could reduce the need for extreme accuracy, and staring down your target won't matter as much if it happens.

5. Don't Contain Leon Washington on special teams and screen passes. WHY??
One thing that seems to be one of the adverse effects of our focus on stopping the run and getting to the quarter back is our inability to stop the screens that teams seem to love through at us. Nothing hurts more than seeing a 3rd and 11 or 12 situation converted into a first down on a screen pass that goes for 15 yards. We just haven't been home on these for some reason. No one executes this type of play like Mr. Washington. His speed makes him deadly good not only on screens but also on special teams. If we are not careful, this game could quickly turn into a situation within which we could have beat them if we only didn't allow that punt return to get to the 45 yard line or that 20 yard catch and run by Leo Washington. He is really good at something we've proven that we haven't been able to stop. Think of it this way, If he can consistently get to the 35 - 45 yard line on punt and kick off returns. Sanchez is only one 15-20 yard slant (that were almost certain give him) in the middle of the field, and a couple of run plays before being in field goal range or the redzone.

6. Don't get at least one touch down on defense. WHY??
This is another one of those areas that concern greatly and ties back the conditions that the jet defense will try to create to win this game. I really do strongly believe that when our guys walk on the field on Monday night they should have a mental scoreboard that indicates that we are down 7-10 points before the game even starts. I hope it does not happen but when you mix Hennes limited game experience, our receivers inability to create separation before pressure is already in the QB's face, and the athleticism of their linebackers, we should expect at least 1 pick 6 and a fumble yielding a field goal. I am not saying that the kid is bad QB, I am just saying that we need to be realistic on expectations for someone starting their second game. Shame on the "fans" that will call for his head if and when something likes this occurs at a critical point in the game. Those that are realistic pray and hope that it does not happen, but don't get give up on him if it does. I am expecting it happen, so should you, our coaching staff and our defense. Our defense needs to spot us that touchdown with their aggressive play because Henne will almost certainly give it back sometime during game.

7. Try to use draws and screens as a way to victory. WHY???
The Jet defense will be expecting a crap load of them due to the inexperience of our young QB and his propensity for the check downs. I am a little torn here because fundamentally this is what you want to do to an over aggressive defense that is blitzing allot, but without the element of surprise it could be an early momentum killer and could change the dynamics of the game in the defenses favor. Their line backers will be more than fast enough to identify and recover from these. We don't have a Leon washing ton on our team. Can Patrick Cobbs pull it off?? I am leaning in the direction of believing that these type of plays will only be a quick an easy way to a few completions and a three and out series. Teams like to run these early as a way to give confidence to the offense, but in this situation it will probably do more to bolster ****iness of that defense than help us one bit.


We may win this game if...

1. Rex Ryan either under or over prepares for the wildcat offense. WHY???
Well this is the beauty of doing what we do with the wildcat, you don't know how much you are going to see it. Rex is a ****y SOB and because of this, I hope is as predictable as most of them are. I believe that he would rather loose the game than have us run wild on him. After all, he's gained some much fame from it last year and this year that makes me sick. To crush us and bring our offense to a grinding halt is what he is probably having wet dreams about every second of the day. You know, wouldn't be cool to say you stopped the number 1 rushing offense in the nfl by beating the crap out of them. Because of this and the lack of respect for our wide-outs, I believe good old Rex will sneak his safeties up and tell his line backers to just attack when ever they see the formation. This strategy should open some passing opportunities out of the formation and some nice runs up the middle. He is so full of himself, I believe that he thinks that the athleticism of the players on that Baltimore defense had nothing to do with his success against it last year. If those boys up front for the jets aren't as strong as the beef that Baltimore packs, or we have improved considerably when it comes to brute strength along the offensive line, we might get and easy touch down either straight up the middle or a power run with ricky to the outside, if he over commits and we can hold the first wave of defenders.

2. Ted Gin is a big part of the dolphins game plan WHY???
This one is pretty simple, if the Jet defense respects the man as little as I think they do, any one of the catches he makes has the potential to go a long way. The aggressive nature of this defense, their focus on not being embarrassed by the wildcat, and their propensity for the blitz leaves them vulnerable in a number of ways. There is a multitude of ways this guy can change the game by himself. One of his end-a-rounds always has the potential to go all the way. He may also end up burning the initial bump at the point of contact and run to pay-dirt. This is of course assuming he ate his Monday Morning Wheaties. The guy use to through a beautiful ball in college. You cant tell me that the dolphins aren't thinking about it. They even tried if a few times already. With Chad Henne under center, he can also do what he does best: run the hell out of a go route and produce some points. Think about it, all we need is for him to execute only one of these things and the game changes

3. Our wide receivers can fake the comeback rout. WHY??
This one also goes back to the main reason why I created this thread. While I have a concern for the possible pick six that could be thrown from these type of routes, I also think that if you fake the original route you could turn it to a major advantage. Beat them with what they are expecting. There is plenty of film from the last game telling the Jets that they should expect these during the game. I believe the best personal for such a route would be Devon Bess. I believe his unique ability to stop and turn on a dime with the quickness of a cat, could possible give us a touch down if he can get the cornerback to bite hard enough on the fake. Considering how much film that they and the inexperience of our QB, their corner back will be looking to jump this rout for the easy pick six. We maybe able to get six the other way also. Sorry, I am not to sure of the name of the individual routes here. Fill in the blank if you know them.

4. Pass out of the wildcat early and often in the first quarter. WHY??
I believe if we can do this out of this formation, the game is ours, so I am tagging this as my next most important key to winning this game. I believe this is the best way to neutralize the speed of the line backers and keep them from simply charging the line of scrimmage when ever they see the wildcat formation. The threat of the pass must be established because it is not something that they are expecting us to do to often. If we do this early and often, I believe it changes everything that they thought they were getting ready for through out the week. You cut off the head of the monster (stopping the wildcat is their soul reason for thinking they can win the game) and you watch the rest of the body squirm and fall apart. So we don't give them a change of direction flag, the passing must be done out of the base wildcat package with Ronnie Brown and should not include Pat white ( I believe that we are saving that for the Patriots).

5. Protect Henne without the Help of Joy Haynos. WHY??
If we can protect Henne without the help of Haynos it means 2 things. First of all, they are not getting to the QB and secondly, that leaves us a big target that can step into the middle of the field that is being left vacant by their overly aggressive and blitzing line backers. I believe that we can pick up some critical yardage in chunks of 8 to 12 yards with some well designed plays. He's big so your freshman QB can just aim high. You get low-risk, high-reward passes with good potential for yards after the catch if ball is placed right.

6. Prepare for the Delayed Blitz that comes after the first wave of blitzers. WHY??
I believe this is the third most important key to winning this thing. If I am not mistaken I believe this is where baltimore got us in both of the last to times we played this defense. They send their crossing blitzer;s or what ever type of blitz that they are going to send and then get you with the delayed blitz a split second later after you've committed all of your blockers and the blitzing lanes are clean. I am not to sure how to cure this offensively. Do you run slants? Spare running back or tight end that does not commit to a block at first? What do you guys think?

7. Use the unbalanced line on third and short. WHY??
This particular one is actually something I thought off specifically for the Rex Ryan cure for the wildcat. On any short yardage situation, the defense has the advantage in the fact that they know you are not going to be to risky with the ball, so more than likely you are going somewhere up the middle. Because of this, you have a whole bunch of line backers and safety charging towards the middle of the line to give as little movement as possible. Offensively, you can combat this in a number of ways from using play actions fakes to QB sneaks and other methods of reducing the pressure behind the wall that the defense has built. To be successful in executing this play the offensive line needs both power and leverage. The unbalanced line with Thomas, Carey, Long and Grove gives us quite of bit of power to plow and get the yardage but may not be enough leverage to push the whole wall of defenders. This may or may not be a good Idea, but I say you create a power package that puts Ronnie behind the center and Ricky streaking to the empty side of the field as the ball is being snapped. Of course the line backers will see this and try to adjust, but they don't what's going to happen with the ball so it freezes them and keeps them from committing until it's to late to help the front line stop the short gain needed for the first down or touch down. If this situation is your run of the mill third down in the middle of the field and they don't commit enough blockers to protect the edge, if Ronnie hands it to Ricky, it could potentially be an easy home run. Now keep in mind I was just playing with this particular point. If you don't think it would work tell me what you would do to make it work or work better. If you have completely different idea for third and short out of the wildcat, it would be cool to here this to.
 
To sum this whole thread up, Miami will lose if they score less points than the jets. Miami will win if they score more points than the jets.

I don't care how it happens, but I'm praying for the latter.
 
Nice job, you covered it pretty thorough. I think it's key for our WR to get off the line cleanly and also like you said, try some double moves on the DB.
 
i say we just stomp the **** out of them anyway possible..lol that would do it for me.. what ever it takes baby.. in the trenches.. in the air.. or on the ground.. don't care if we win by 1 or 20.. just as long as we win.. go fins
 
My focus is on the offensive line versus the Jets defensive line and blitz packages. The Grove versus Jenkins battle determines the success of our running game. The wildcat can be tamed if the center is dominated. Further, he is the key to the Jets run defense. Donald Thomas has not played well. He looked especially bad when the LB ran by him untouched for an easy sack during the Bills game. I assure you that the Jets defense will try to make D Thomas look like a fool. Unfortunately, they have a good chance of succeeding. I believe this is the real reason that Garner is getting reps at right guard.

If we get good line play out of these positions, then we have can win this game. If not, it is going to be a long day.
 
I like the idea of double moves on the outside..

The only thing is we are not into not getting yards on plays...Thats the only reason i can see us not doing them..

Phins like High % plays that get yards...They are not a big play team unless its from the run..

But i would like more big plays out of the pass..

I would like to see them throw more of 1st down...some play action on them like they did last week...

Rex is a great d guy he will be prepared for everything we throw at him..

I just hope our Uglys can beat on theres..


I am pretty confident we will run the foot ball ...

I hope our D shows up again.. that has been the problem
 
Also we need to pressure Sanchez early and often..

He played poor against the saints last week and was under alot of pressure..

We need to get pressure with 4 or 5 guys...

Dont want too many 1 on 1s with Dustin keller over the Middle...

Look for alot of Cover 1 but we have to get to the qb otherwise its lights out
 
My focus is on the offensive line versus the Jets defensive line and blitz packages. The Grove versus Jenkins battle determines the success of our running game. The wildcat can be tamed if the center is dominated. Further, he is the key to the Jets run defense. Donald Thomas has not played well. He looked especially bad when the LB ran by him untouched for an easy sack during the Bills game. I assure you that the Jets defense will try to make D Thomas look like a fool. Unfortunately, they have a good chance of succeeding. I believe this is the real reason that Garner is getting reps at right guard.

If we get good line play out of these positions, then we have can win this game. If not, it is going to be a long day.

I didn't know Donald Thomas was playing that poorly. If he is this big of a liability on in the line. You may be right on this being the deciding factor. Ryans blitzes are designed to overload generally at the week point.

I am still holding on to the possibility of them passing early and often in their first few attempts at the wildcat to take some of the bite out of the linebackers. One or two completed passes is all that we need and I believe they will slow down.
 
Donald Thomas has not played well. He looked especially bad when the LB ran by him untouched for an easy sack during the Bills game. I assure you that the Jets defense will try to make D Thomas look like a fool. Unfortunately, they have a good chance of succeeding. I believe this is the real reason that Garner is getting reps at right guard.

When reading this board, I thought Donald Thomas was the football version of Jordan/Kobe/James...How dare you talk bad about Thomas :ponder:
 
Back
Top Bottom