76% chance Fins make it to playoffs if we lose one more game... | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

76% chance Fins make it to playoffs if we lose one more game...

That page calculates probabilities assuming each team has a 50/50 chance to win each game. If you use the alternative "weighted" page on that site, our chances of making the playoffs at 10-6 or getting the #2 seed at 11-5 both go way, way down.
 
To be precise, the "weighted" gives us a 23% chance to get in at 10-6, instead of 76% at 50/50. I think the weighted is much more realistic because the contenders we are fighting against are better than .500 clubs.
 
interesting stuff... i think the main thing you can see from that is we need to win the division... the wild card is going to be tough with Indy and Baltimore both winning again this week, and Indy's easy *** schedule... we need to win out point blank
 
Indy is a lock

Baltimore could struggle with those final games.

I'm stunned the Jets came out so flat yesterday and lost. They put us right back in the playoff race.
 
If I am not mistaken, should the Fins win out, they would take the AFC East crown...and host a playoff game...imagine that!!
 
mandal24 said:
Dont know how accurate this is but sounds awesome... We would need the Ravens to lose 3 out of their last 4 (Dallas, Pitt, Wash, Jags)..And of course Pats would have to lose one more

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/East/Dolphins.html

Also: 23% chance we claim the 2nd seed if we win out, 76% chance we claim 3rd seed if we win out
Click to expand...

If we win out, there is a 99% chance we take the #3 seed.

We definately win the division, and would own a tie-breaker over Denver even if they win out, so we couldn't be lower than 3.

But to be #2, Pittsburgh would have to lose 3 of 4 AND Baltimore loses at least 2 of 4. Considering that they play eachother, that's 1 guaranteed win for one of them. Despite their difficult shedules, it's almost impossible for us to go as high as #2.
 
burger13 said:
If we win out, there is a 99% chance we take the #3 seed.

We definately win the division, and would own a tie-breaker over Denver even if they win out, so we couldn't be lower than 3.

But to be #2, Pittsburgh would have to lose 3 of 4 AND Baltimore loses at least 2 of 4. Considering that they play eachother, that's 1 guaranteed win for one of them. Despite their difficult shedules, it's almost impossible for us to go as high as #2.
Click to expand...

3 seed plays the #4 seed am i correct?
 
miamirick said:
If I am not mistaken, should the Fins win out, they would take the AFC East crown...and host a playoff game...imagine that!!
Click to expand...

You are very right. It's very possible to win out. The Jets will be the biggest test, but they have losses to Oakland and a very bad loss to Denver. We beat both of those teams. We have four winnable games left. We can do this. But if we are going to do this, then we need to have better playcalling. Luckily for us, nobody is really peaking in the AFC East. Winning the division is definitely a better shot for us. I don't see Indy or Baltimore falling off very soon.

I'll admit that I've been very hesitant to look forward to the playoffs this year, but with a 7-5 record and four winnable games left, I can't help it. We can do this. Just imagine if we host a playoff game this year...WOW!
 
Or.... The Donkeys could have a melt down of epic proportions and SD pulls their heads out and both finish tied at the top of the AFCW @ 8-8.

Meaning one gets no playoffs and Miami gets the #5 or #6.

I want the phins to do well but am conflicted. Say they make the playoffs then expectations go thru the roof. The phins it seems grossly underachieve in those situations.

With Parcells and Co being in charge, underachieving may be a thing of the past.
 
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