I don't know why you think 10-6 doesn't get into the playoffs. Indy, NE, and Denver are pretty much guaranteed 10+ wins. I wouldn't be surprised if Baltimore finishes 8-8. San Diego has a way of losing games. Jax has good and bad games, and doesn't have a starting qb. Cinci has been good but not great and doesn't have a very easy schedule. The Jets...? I wouldn't be surprised if at least one AFC team makes it in with a 9-7 record.
As for the Dolphins upcoming pick, I don't think top 5 picks are worth the money unless you can get a special qb. The worst mistake you can ever make is drafting a good but not great qb #1 because he's the best qb available (let's call this the Alex Smith rule). If you think Brady Quinn is special you draft him, dump Daunte, and start over. Otherwise trade down for more (and less expensive) picks.