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The other day when discussing the Cook situation with '72, I mentioned that I had been exploring the monetary numbers of the RB market. I'd like to share those numbers with the board, while making a point about RBs and the salary cap as I go. To do this, I will focus on the 9 RBs in the NFL who make more than 7M per year (on average). Yes, there are only 9; James Conner is presently at #10 and he only makes a 7M/year average.
First things first, there is a pretty large gap between Conner and the men above him-- most of whom, are thought to be overpaid by their own teams. In a three-way shake for 7th place, Barkley, Jacobs, and Pollard all make 10.09M/year. All three of them have contracts that expire at the end of this year. Barkley has been tagged as the Giants do not want to give him a longer-term contract. Jacobs is on a one-year deal because the Raiders do not want to give him a longer contract. Pollard, like Barkley was tagged.
All three of these younger (26- and 25-year-old) backs who were drafted by the teams who control them could not get a longer commitment or more money, and as we have seen, generally teams will pay their own draftees more than second teams will pay in the FA market. So, these top 9 NFL backs have no security, and no long-term money in their future. Any that are hurt this year will only see their markets decline further before 2024.
Next up is Aaron Jones at 11.5M...and this contract is instructive as well. He is currently on an expiring contract as well, and he took a pay cut of 5M this year in order to get his 8.5M salary guaranteed. His cap number is higher because of previously paid bonus monies, but his real number is lower. There are also 3 void years on this deal which means that he is going to be a cap bomb when he exits, probably at the end of this year. It's a bad contract and the Packers know it, and Jones, by taking the pay cut, acknowledged it.
Next up is Joe Mixon... yet ANOTHER player who has been in the news because his team is pushing for a salary reduction. His cap number is 12.7, but only 9.4 is new money... and the Bengals want to reduce this further. It's a longshot, but like Cook... he could be cut. The fact that he, like Kamara, is in legal trouble right now might hasten his departure. If the Bengals want to cut him for ahem... a morals clause in his contract, they might make that stick.
Nick Chubb is next up... He has a cap number of 14.8, but this is highly inflated by the 12M bonus that he received last year (and a 1M salary last year). I'm not sure whether to point out how stupid the Borrow-ns have been with contracts lately (cough... Watson) or to mention that like Cook, only 2M of his salary is guaranteed this year (and none is guaranteed next year). Like Byron Jones, if he's injured, he's gone. Again, like every other player on this list so far, he has no security whatsoever.
Next up is King Henry... whose contract is ALSO expiring at the end of this year. He's 29 and while his avg/year is higher. his actual salary this year is going to be 10.5M and it isn't guaranteed either. I wonder whether he'll still be healthy next year. I wonder where he'll be playing? By the way, there are 2 void years on this contract as well... so another cap bomb player who is being paid for past performance.
Number 2 is the next possible felon on our list, Alvin Kamara. Like every member of the Saints, he's had so much of his salary converted into bonus, he's not a cap bomb, he's a nuclear strike. Hell, his listed salary for 2025 is 22M a year... so clearly, he's only signed through 2024-- which is when their cap bomb will go off as he leaves the team-- maybe for prison. The Saints are stupid, and so is Kamara. They deserve each other.
Then we finally get to the man who is at #1. We all knew this was McCaffrey right? So let's look at how this happened... First, the Panthers signed him to a stupidly high number, then they imploded as a team and took 4 draft picks from the 49rs to eat his signing bonus while giving the niners a one-year rental (since the Panthers had already paid him that year). This year, the niners are paying Christian 11.8M and next year, he's pegged at 12M. He might get that... he might not... The niners are not on the hook for the cap bomb, the Panthers already ate that. So, like every other player on this list... every single one... he has no job security and no guaranteed pay in his future. If the niners regress... he's gone.
So... this isn't about Cook really... or Mixon... or any of the others. This is just to show that the RB market has tanked, and NONE of the teams are really looking for expensive RBs. Even teams like Cleveland, the Gents and Dallas, who has had a history of fielding running based teams have not put their money down... and that big gap between the top 9 and the rest, it's going to shrink as the next bunch of RB contracts will be smaller... as will the tag number which is currently just a hair over 10M.
First things first, there is a pretty large gap between Conner and the men above him-- most of whom, are thought to be overpaid by their own teams. In a three-way shake for 7th place, Barkley, Jacobs, and Pollard all make 10.09M/year. All three of them have contracts that expire at the end of this year. Barkley has been tagged as the Giants do not want to give him a longer-term contract. Jacobs is on a one-year deal because the Raiders do not want to give him a longer contract. Pollard, like Barkley was tagged.
All three of these younger (26- and 25-year-old) backs who were drafted by the teams who control them could not get a longer commitment or more money, and as we have seen, generally teams will pay their own draftees more than second teams will pay in the FA market. So, these top 9 NFL backs have no security, and no long-term money in their future. Any that are hurt this year will only see their markets decline further before 2024.
Next up is Aaron Jones at 11.5M...and this contract is instructive as well. He is currently on an expiring contract as well, and he took a pay cut of 5M this year in order to get his 8.5M salary guaranteed. His cap number is higher because of previously paid bonus monies, but his real number is lower. There are also 3 void years on this deal which means that he is going to be a cap bomb when he exits, probably at the end of this year. It's a bad contract and the Packers know it, and Jones, by taking the pay cut, acknowledged it.
Next up is Joe Mixon... yet ANOTHER player who has been in the news because his team is pushing for a salary reduction. His cap number is 12.7, but only 9.4 is new money... and the Bengals want to reduce this further. It's a longshot, but like Cook... he could be cut. The fact that he, like Kamara, is in legal trouble right now might hasten his departure. If the Bengals want to cut him for ahem... a morals clause in his contract, they might make that stick.
Nick Chubb is next up... He has a cap number of 14.8, but this is highly inflated by the 12M bonus that he received last year (and a 1M salary last year). I'm not sure whether to point out how stupid the Borrow-ns have been with contracts lately (cough... Watson) or to mention that like Cook, only 2M of his salary is guaranteed this year (and none is guaranteed next year). Like Byron Jones, if he's injured, he's gone. Again, like every other player on this list so far, he has no security whatsoever.
Next up is King Henry... whose contract is ALSO expiring at the end of this year. He's 29 and while his avg/year is higher. his actual salary this year is going to be 10.5M and it isn't guaranteed either. I wonder whether he'll still be healthy next year. I wonder where he'll be playing? By the way, there are 2 void years on this contract as well... so another cap bomb player who is being paid for past performance.
Number 2 is the next possible felon on our list, Alvin Kamara. Like every member of the Saints, he's had so much of his salary converted into bonus, he's not a cap bomb, he's a nuclear strike. Hell, his listed salary for 2025 is 22M a year... so clearly, he's only signed through 2024-- which is when their cap bomb will go off as he leaves the team-- maybe for prison. The Saints are stupid, and so is Kamara. They deserve each other.
Then we finally get to the man who is at #1. We all knew this was McCaffrey right? So let's look at how this happened... First, the Panthers signed him to a stupidly high number, then they imploded as a team and took 4 draft picks from the 49rs to eat his signing bonus while giving the niners a one-year rental (since the Panthers had already paid him that year). This year, the niners are paying Christian 11.8M and next year, he's pegged at 12M. He might get that... he might not... The niners are not on the hook for the cap bomb, the Panthers already ate that. So, like every other player on this list... every single one... he has no job security and no guaranteed pay in his future. If the niners regress... he's gone.
So... this isn't about Cook really... or Mixon... or any of the others. This is just to show that the RB market has tanked, and NONE of the teams are really looking for expensive RBs. Even teams like Cleveland, the Gents and Dallas, who has had a history of fielding running based teams have not put their money down... and that big gap between the top 9 and the rest, it's going to shrink as the next bunch of RB contracts will be smaller... as will the tag number which is currently just a hair over 10M.
