A degree of caution | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

A degree of caution

I think having Wilson is certainly a major advantage but I also thank Carroll is the most underrated head coach in the NFL. He has consistently put a quality team on the field as the HC of the Seahawks even with a massive turnover of the roster during his tenure in Seattle.

i was strictly speaking in terms of players.
of course, a quality HC is a must for sustained success.
 
It’s the nature of the league these days. Rookie contract is up and guys move on for a bigger payday than they are worth to their existing team. It’s why I prefer the rookie players get to play and develop early because a year sitting is a bit of a waste in the sense it’s as if you rented a car for 4 days but only got to use it for 3. QB is an exception because if the guy is your franchise guy you’ll lock him up.
That’s true. But the lack of big second contracts in that 2015 first round is alarming. Lots of duds.
 
I mentioned in a recent thread that NFL rosters tend to go through a lot of turnover every 5 or 6 years, so we should be prepared for some of Miami's draft haul from 2020 and 2021 to not make it very far past their rookie contracts. After saying that I just happened to look at the Browns 2016 and 2017 drafts where they had an incredible 24 combined picks including 3 1st round picks in 2017. Amazingly the Browns only have 4 of those 24 players still on their roster from those drafts that were just 3 and 4 years ago. Of those 24 picks, 10 were in the 1st 2nd or 3rd rounds and only 3 of those picks remain. Ironicly Miami has more of the Browns 2016 draft picks on their current roster (Ogbah and Ricardo Louis) than the Browns have. I pray Miami has better luck than the Browns did, but just want to stress that often the dreams of players potential is much greater that how things playout in reality.


Another amazing draft note: Miami's Devante Parker is 1 of only 7 2015 1st round picks that remain with their original team and of the top 9 wrs selected in that draft he's the only one that hasn't been cut, traded or let walk away in free agency.

yeah, it is a cautionary tale to be sure...
 
Not having a shot but curious as to which couple of players you think will still be here in 4 years?

I'm hoping obviously Tua stays sound and lives up to the hype.
If 2 of the 3 OL stick that's a big win.
Don't think both Weaver and Strowbridge will both be here.
Don't know enough about the DB's but it would be no surprise if we drafted a couple more over the coming years as Flo seems to place a mayor emphasis on the position.

The couple of positives regards Grier is that he brought in a couple of experienced scouts and Flo comes from a scouting background and he would of had to of had some input into the draft. The curious one was reaction to getting Davis pick 56, think Flo may well of had a hand in that one.
I really don’t know which 2 or 3 players that might be. I am just going by past history and the Dolphins have a history of not resigning most of their draftees after their first contract runs out. Hopefully the 3 will be Tua, Jackson, and Hunt but only time will tell.
I think you are ignoring (for some reason) the addition and influence of Flo, McKenzie, and Allen.

Yes, it still is not proven, but there is more to it than just Grier.
McKenzie was fired from the Raiders and they really weren’t loaded with talent while he was there. Flores might end up being a solid coach but that doesn’t mean he is good at judging college talent. Saban was terrible when it came to judging college talent when it came to how that talent would perform at the NFL level.
I actually like Allen and prefer him over Grier but I don’t know how much his advice is listened to over the other voices in Grier‘s ear or Grier’s own decision.
 
That’s the nfl you have a small window before you have to pay guys and you can’t afford everyone. That’s the importance of drafting if you can’t draft well consistently you have a small window

You saw this with the Rams, they loaded up on contracts and when gurley had to be paid that made their window super small. They missed it
 
So the whole "draft this position and we're set for the next decade." is a myth. It's more like draft this position and you're set for the next 5 or 6 years at best. Not saying players won't last 9 or 10 years with a team, but based on some of the numbers you should plan on them being with you for just the rookie deal and anything extra is a bonus akin to having priority rights to signing a decent free agent.
 
So the whole "draft this position and we're set for the next decade." is a myth. It's more like draft this position and you're set for the next 5 or 6 years at best. Not saying players won't last 9 or 10 years with a team, but based on some of the numbers you should plan on them being with you for just the rookie deal and anything extra is a bonus akin to having priority rights to signing a decent free agent.
That is a more realistic way to look at it.

These days, if a guy is with you for multiple contracts, he is either elite, and you paid him, or he is average, at best.
 
I'm really starting to believe that it's all about the coaching staff getting the best out of your picks, not the picks themselves becoming the best they can. With a bad coaching staff guys aren't in the right spots for their skills and maybe don't give it their best at becoming their best selves.
 
This is an interesting thread.
So based on the thesis that most draftees won't get a 2nd contract with the team that drafted them, shouldn't that then cause teams, at least in the early rounds, to try to draft more "plug and play" type players rather than developmental guys? You can't wait till year three for a guy to start to peak anymore. He will pull a Tunsil- in that sense I mean become good but not elite, and become un-affordable. Or he will play at a less premium position(LB) and not be worth even a reasonable upgrade in pay.
 
I think you are ignoring (for some reason) the addition and influence of Flo, McKenzie, and Allen.

Yes, it still is not proven, but there is more to it than just Grier.
...seriously anyone doubting Grier after the way he's conducted business since December '18
just ain't gonna get it. The entire basis of the "team" and org has been transformed in an effort
to design/build a winner! Reminds me of folks who hire an excellent contractor to rebuild their
home and hang around in the yard all day questioning "why those nails?" -- "how come that concrete?"
...its like STFU and let me do my job!

:lol:
 
This is an interesting thread.
So based on the thesis that most draftees won't get a 2nd contract with the team that drafted them, shouldn't that then cause teams, at least in the early rounds, to try to draft more "plug and play" type players rather than developmental guys? You can't wait till year three for a guy to start to peak anymore. He will pull a Tunsil- in that sense I mean become good but not elite, and become un-affordable. Or he will play at a less premium position(LB) and not be worth even a reasonable upgrade in pay.
Beyond rd1, how many guys are going to be "plug and play"?

I also think that saying only a couple guys make it past the first contract has to be taken in context.

A large majority of guys taken past the 3rd round won't make it to the end of the rookie deal anyway, and that has more to do with talent level than anything else.
 
So the whole "draft this position and we're set for the next decade." is a myth. It's more like draft this position and you're set for the next 5 or 6 years at best. Not saying players won't last 9 or 10 years with a team, but based on some of the numbers you should plan on them being with you for just the rookie deal and anything extra is a bonus akin to having priority rights to signing a decent free agent.
Other then the Patriots who had the best head coach and QB, along with a solid defense for the past two decades, every other team that has been good over that period of time have had to rebuild much of their roster every 3 or 4 years because their better players want to get paid and the salary cap prevent teams from building for a decade.
If a team is a playoff caliber team for more 5 years in a row, their fans should be overjoyed with how successful l their team is.
 
Other then the Patriots who had the best head coach and QB, along with a solid defense for the past two decades, every other team that has been good over that period of time have had to rebuild much of their roster every 3 or 4 years because their better players want to get paid and the salary cap prevent teams from building for a decade.
If a team is a playoff caliber team for more 5 years in a row, their fans should be overjoyed with how successful l their team is.

The Patriots whent through there share of restructuring too, with Gronk, Brady and Edelman being the constants,
 
At this point in time... I'm not sure that the number 1 determiner of whether your team can sustain success is whether your GM (or whoever REALLY makes the decisions for your team) understands the salary cap and how the draft and supplemental draft choice systems impact that cap.

Great players will always require great salaries... and knowing how to juggle that fact with new talent acquisition is the real key.

It has been said that the Patriots let their players walk one season early rather than one season late... clearly, they understand the balancing act.

I think Grier gets it.
 
Back
Top Bottom