A Look Ahead at the 2025 Season - Why Miami Can't (or at least shouldn't) Hit the Reset Button Yet. | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

A Look Ahead at the 2025 Season - Why Miami Can't (or at least shouldn't) Hit the Reset Button Yet.

The Goat

The Goat

Don't start none, won't be none.
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This season isn't over, but it's certainly winding down. The Fins have slim playoff hopes, and we'll know for certain within the next eight days how that turns out. But much to the chagrin of many here, it appears that Ross isn't quite ready to move on from anyone in the front office. Do I know this? Of course not. But all of those who made those self-important public declarations about their actions if Miami didn't clean house after this season might want to either pack their fan bags or start practicing their "I reserve the right to re-evaluate things" speeches.

The thing is, it might have *nothing* to do with how much Ross likes Grier or McDaniel. It just might make zero sense financially. What makes sense financially (which is probably pretty relevant to a real estate mogul) is to patch holes as best they can and run it back for one more year.

The Miami Dolphins will be a far more enticing spot for a GM and HC in 2026 than in 2025. Consider the following:

1) I am not in favor of moving on from Tua. However, I can certainly understand moving on from him if he regresses and/or he gets injured again, and/or Miami completely falls apart. Why? Because Tua's contract is nowhere near as crippling as some would make you believe. His 2026 salary becomes fully guaranteed as of March 2025. However, Tua can still be cut after 2025 with a post 6/1 designation, and I *believe* it would result in a dead cap hit of around $23mm in 2026 and 2027. Not optimal, not franchise-ending.

2) All of those contracts that everyone hates? They go away in 2026. Tyreek Hill...gone. Bradley Chubb? Gone. Terron Armstead? Gone. Just making those three moves plus Tua? Miami has about $100mm in cap space in 2026...and that's without getting creative.

3) Before you look, guess how much guaranteed money is presently guaranteed on Miami's books in 2026. Ready?

It's just over 2.5 million dollars. Chop Robinson and Patrick Paul. That's it. There is no other guaranteed money. It would make no sense to cut Waddle, Austin Jackson and Jalen Ramsey at that point, but there just aren't that many pieces that are certain to be on Miami in 2026.

In summary, 2025 might not be the best year for GM/HC shopping in Miami. 2026 looks a lot more enticing...and I'm honestly not all that worried about Grier restructuring that many contracts. I'm not sure he'll get the green light this time.
 
Nice post. It explains a lot. Glad to see the optimistic outlook the team potentially has, from a financial aspect. The financial flexibility should help on both fronts. Where it could attract potential GM and HC candidates as well as F/A's. Miami still appears to be a place players want to come to play. Hopefully 2024 was a blip on the screen and the team returns to a more winning way in 2025 and beyond. 2024 to me was bad roster management and misguided player development, along with lack of accountability and conditioning. Let's hope McDaniel and Grier have learned from their mistakes?
 
The Goat said:
This season isn't over, but it's certainly winding down. The Fins have slim playoff hopes, and we'll know for certain within the next eight days how that turns out. But much to the chagrin of many here, it appears that Ross isn't quite ready to move on from anyone in the front office. Do I know this? Of course not. But all of those who made those self-important public declarations about their actions if Miami didn't clean house after this season might want to either pack their fan bags or start practicing their "I reserve the right to re-evaluate things" speeches.

The thing is, it might have *nothing* to do with how much Ross likes Grier or McDaniel. It just might make zero sense financially. What makes sense financially (which is probably pretty relevant to a real estate mogul) is to patch holes as best they can and run it back for one more year.

The Miami Dolphins will be a far more enticing spot for a GM and HC in 2026 than in 2025. Consider the following:

1) I am not in favor of moving on from Tua. However, I can certainly understand moving on from him if he regresses and/or he gets injured again, and/or Miami completely falls apart. Why? Because Tua's contract is nowhere near as crippling as some would make you believe. His 2026 salary becomes fully guaranteed as of March 2025. However, Tua can still be cut after 2025 with a post 6/1 designation, and I *believe* it would result in a dead cap hit of around $23mm in 2026 and 2027. Not optimal, not franchise-ending.

2) All of those contracts that everyone hates? They go away in 2026. Tyreek Hill...gone. Bradley Chubb? Gone. Terron Armstead? Gone. Just making those three moves plus Tua? Miami has about $100mm in cap space in 2026...and that's without getting creative.

3) Before you look, guess how much guaranteed money is presently guaranteed on Miami's books in 2026. Ready?

It's just over 2.5 million dollars. Chop Robinson and Patrick Paul. That's it. There is no other guaranteed money. It would make no sense to cut Waddle, Austin Jackson and Jalen Ramsey at that point, but there just aren't that many pieces that are certain to be on Miami in 2026.

In summary, 2025 might not be the best year for GM/HC shopping in Miami. 2026 looks a lot more enticing...and I'm honestly not all that worried about Grier restructuring that many contracts. I'm not sure he'll get the green light this time.
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Nice post.....

I tend to agree that there is likely no reset after this year.......and that is not unreasonable, with 2026 being the target if it is needed. However, we REALLY need a successful draft this year to help set us up for the future, even those late round picks need to contribute
 
eMCee85 said:
Wouldn't we still be shelling out lots of dead money if we cut players in 26? Tua, hill, Ramsey, Chubb?
Click to expand...

Hill Total Cap - $51.9. Dead cap: $15.5mm/Cap Savings: $36.6mm
Chubb Total Cap - $29.3mm. Dead Cap: $18.2mm/Cap Savings $11mm
Terron Armstead Total Cap - $22.1mm. Dead Cap: $10.7mm/Cap Savings $11.4mm

The Tua part I explained above. The figures I've seen don't take into account that his 2026 salary kicks in this upcoming March.
 
artdnj said:
If that’s the case I would want the new GM at the helm with a year to plan on what direction he wants to take to cut the fat and obtain younger talent. The sooner the better imo
Click to expand...

I don't disagree with this. However, from a prospective GM's point of view, would you want to start your tenure under a bunch of lame duck contracts/players or have a nearly blank slate at your fingertips?

I just think 2026 in Miami is much more appealing to prospective candidates than 2025.
 
The Goat said:
This season isn't over, but it's certainly winding down. The Fins have slim playoff hopes, and we'll know for certain within the next eight days how that turns out. But much to the chagrin of many here, it appears that Ross isn't quite ready to move on from anyone in the front office. Do I know this? Of course not. But all of those who made those self-important public declarations about their actions if Miami didn't clean house after this season might want to either pack their fan bags or start practicing their "I reserve the right to re-evaluate things" speeches.

The thing is, it might have *nothing* to do with how much Ross likes Grier or McDaniel. It just might make zero sense financially. What makes sense financially (which is probably pretty relevant to a real estate mogul) is to patch holes as best they can and run it back for one more year.

The Miami Dolphins will be a far more enticing spot for a GM and HC in 2026 than in 2025. Consider the following:

1) I am not in favor of moving on from Tua. However, I can certainly understand moving on from him if he regresses and/or he gets injured again, and/or Miami completely falls apart. Why? Because Tua's contract is nowhere near as crippling as some would make you believe. His 2026 salary becomes fully guaranteed as of March 2025. However, Tua can still be cut after 2025 with a post 6/1 designation, and I *believe* it would result in a dead cap hit of around $23mm in 2026 and 2027. Not optimal, not franchise-ending.

2) All of those contracts that everyone hates? They go away in 2026. Tyreek Hill...gone. Bradley Chubb? Gone. Terron Armstead? Gone. Just making those three moves plus Tua? Miami has about $100mm in cap space in 2026...and that's without getting creative.

3) Before you look, guess how much guaranteed money is presently guaranteed on Miami's books in 2026. Ready?

It's just over 2.5 million dollars. Chop Robinson and Patrick Paul. That's it. There is no other guaranteed money. It would make no sense to cut Waddle, Austin Jackson and Jalen Ramsey at that point, but there just aren't that many pieces that are certain to be on Miami in 2026.

In summary, 2025 might not be the best year for GM/HC shopping in Miami. 2026 looks a lot more enticing...and I'm honestly not all that worried about Grier restructuring that many contracts. I'm not sure he'll get the green light this time.
Click to expand...
Let me ask two simple questions.

Do you think we can realistically compete for a Championship, with a relatively high chance of success, next year?

If not, what is the point in delaying?

Now I seriously doubt there will be major changes but this is already hypothetical.
 
Excellent post.

I, for one, expect very little change overall. Anything hinted at in "the papers" has simply been speculation from disgruntled personages on the internet.

Despite one big return to help garner a win and the great year the Colonel is having, what I would LOVE to see is a replacement for Danny Crossman.

Go Dolphins.
 
Mach2 said:
Let me ask two simple questions.

Do you think we can realistically compete for a Championship, with a relatively high chance of success, next year?

If not, what is the point in delaying?

Now I seriously doubt there will be major changes but this is already hypothetical.
Click to expand...

I'm not the guy making the decisions.

If I was the guy making the decisions, McDaniel would have lost his play-calling duties at the end of 2023.

If I was the guy making the decisions, I'd trade Tyreek if he has a hot start to the 2025 season...for the right price.

If I was the guy making the decisions, we'd add two big-ass mean guards, a big possession receiver, a backup QB not named Tyler Huntley, a sledgehammer of a RB, a couple safeties and a LB through a combination of FA and the draft this offseason. None of those things should require a tremendous amount of capital.

And yes, I believe if Miami did all that, they could realistically compete next year.
 
Danny said:
in other words, we must suffer through yet another season of grier.....just great
Click to expand...

Shrugs GIF
 
Stoobz said:
Excellent post.

I, for one, expect very little change overall. Anything hinted at in "the papers" has simply been speculation from disgruntled personages on the internet.

Despite one big return to help garner a win and the great year the Colonel is having, what I would LOVE to see is a replacement for Danny Crossman.

Go Dolphins.
Click to expand...

Right. I forgot to add that if I was in charge, Danny Crossman would have been fired a long time ago.

Into the Sun.
 
The Goat said:
I'm not the guy making the decisions.

If I was the guy making the decisions, McDaniel would have lost his play-calling duties at the end of 2023.

If I was the guy making the decisions, I'd trade Tyreek if he has a hot start to the 2025 season...for the right price.

If I was the guy making the decisions, we'd add two big-ass mean guards, a big possession receiver, a backup QB not named Tyler Huntley, a sledgehammer of a RB, a couple safeties and a LB through a combination of FA and the draft this offseason. None of those things should require a tremendous amount of capital.

And yes, I believe if Miami did all that, they could realistically compete next year.
Click to expand...
I agree if Miami did all of that but with grier leading the charge is bound to fail once again. Give me a new GM from outside of the organization and I'll start feeling better about our chances.
 
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