Boik14 said:
But the success rate of picking a QB outside of the first is between 3% - 6%, depending on who you talk to.
Aaron Rodgers: A Studied Opinion
- Thread starter Ghetti13
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But the success rate of picking a QB outside of the first is between 3% - 6%, depending on who you talk to.
djfresh47
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Dudeman said:
That was the best performance of any single player I seen last season. I like Rodgers and Smith but I think Rodgers is gonna be taken by the 9ers. Personally I believe Rodgers will have more of an immediate impact but Smith will be better in the longrun.
merlin00069
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Boik14 said:
So because some pan out and some don't we shouldnt even try??? :shakeno: Youre right about the 35% stat though...i brought that up in another post a few days ago, now imagine the % of LATER round picks that succeed in the NFL...im sure its alot worse. Bottom line is we never have a pick this high so we need to utilize it and draft a QB that HOPEFULLY will be our guy for years to come.The money is huge but it's a risk i believe you have to take, and imagine if everyone went into the draft with that mentality on QB's. Exactly. Just my opinion bud, i think this is the opportunity the Dolphins havent seen since Marino was there at #27. Shula was drafting for the future. In fact that situation was VERY comparable to ours now. Veteran guy..Gus now...Strock then..Younger guy with some promise...Feeley now...Woodley then...Opportunity to solidify and perhaps make the most important position on the field better for years to come. Then obviously Marino....now Rodgers/Smith. In fact i think ill make a new thread with that comparison.Cheers. :D
But you have so much less invested in that player in terms of cap costs and value wise. If you find a qb later on who fits your team long term you make out bigtime in terms of saving in cap costs and being able to use that pick on a different position.rafael said:
Im not saying not to try. Im saying I dont believe either of these guys are worth the #2 pick and taht to do it out of need would be falling into the same trap so many teams fall into; thinking a 1st rd qb is the answer. I do agree we need a qb cause I dont think Aj is the answer at all, i just disagree about the who we choose and where we choose him.merlin00069 said:
I have no problem with your opinion but i have a right to my own all the same.
djfresh47
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Jaj said:
I would not be shocked if they took Smith, I would be surprised if they took Edwards though. I am on the QB bandwagon because I don't think Feeley is the long-term answer and that after Leinhart none of the Qb's next year are as polished as Rodgers/Smith, and that the QB class this year is underrated. For the '06 draft my Qb draft board is: 1. Leinart, 2. Vince Young, 3. Reggie McNeal, 4. Omar Jacobs, and the that's if Young and Jacobs decide to come out. I think Vince Young has the most potential of any QB I seen play in college football last season but is probably the biggest risk and will take alot of time. I don't like to say "if" but say Leinhart did declare would Rodgers/Smith be the obvious choice for Saban. I do not think next year's RB class is as good except for Maroney from Minnesota, but I think that with the depth in this year's class the drop of from Smith/Rodgers is far greater than the dropoff from Benson/Caddy/Brown to Barber/Fason/Shelton/Arrington. Someone will probably go with the "if grandma had....she'd be grandpa, but I beat ya to it, so just feedback on the "if" Leinhart declared comment.
Boik14 said:
But your chance of success is so small that odds are that you will waste years and years of picks and never get any return. It's like playing the lottery. Yeah, you can make out big IF you hit it, but if that's what you are relying on then odds are you'll die poor. QB is the most important position. I'd rather go with the option that gives you a 35% chance of success than the option that gives you a 3% - 6% chance of success.
merlin00069
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Boik14 said:
I will agree with that...sometimes the damage financially can hurt a team for years....but it's a risk that i think is worth it and judging by where teams draft QB's...i dont think im alone.
djfresh47
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rafael said:
I think this is an excellent point, alot of fans bring up the a player and say "he can be the next Tom Brady," but this really they've got a better chance to be the next Josh Heupel/David Ragone. Regardless of the past in the AFC today I believe it takes a franchise Qb, and looking at what other afc teams have invested in players makes me believe that Aj Feeley would have a tough time starting for anyother team not named the Cleveland Browns, it comes down to now where you get your Qb, but whether they do turn out to be franchise Qb's. If Feeley flops and a Qb is taken on the 2nd day of the draft does anyone else think that they won't be counted on as being the starter in '06 and a Qb will be taken with the 1st rd pick in '06, thus making the QB taken on the 2nd day in '05 insignificant.
Im not challenging your opinion on our current qb's. We're in total agreement there. But what we;re trying to do is open up our cap and eliminate the big contracts in large part. Sure there will always be a few but Saban's aim is depth from what I can see. The only way we're going to fill this team out the way he wants imo is trading down.merlin00069 said:
merlin00069
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Boik14 said:
Kind of reminds me of buying a car.You could buy a new Kia and after 2-3 years risk breakdown problems,have to repair it over and over and have buy another new Kia OR you could bite the bullet and buy a BMW/Mercedes that gives you a far better chance of not breaking down for years to come. Sure the BMW/Mercedes could break down...but youll always take the %. :D