Been looking again at the records and tiebreak possibilities, and there appears very little chance the division will be decided before the final week:
None of the three leaders can clinch before week 17 unless both others lose both their next two games. There is no other way for anyone to clinch earlier.
As for winning the division without winning out, here’s how that looks for Miami:
If the Fins lose to San Francisco, they would still win the division at 10-6 if the Pats lose one more game (any game will do). The Jets’ record over the next two weeks would not matter.
If the Fins lose to Kansas City, they can still win the division at 10-6 if the Pats lose to Oakland or Buffalo. If the Pats lose to Arizona, then the tiebreak would go to ‘strength of victory.’ I haven’t calculated where that currently stands between the Fins and Pats -- Miami might be able to win that, but it changes every week.
In order for the Fins to lose in New York and still win the division at 10-6, the Jets would have to lose their next two, and the Pats would need to lose at Buffalo (or have already lost their next two, as noted above).
None of the three leaders can clinch before week 17 unless both others lose both their next two games. There is no other way for anyone to clinch earlier.
As for winning the division without winning out, here’s how that looks for Miami:
If the Fins lose to San Francisco, they would still win the division at 10-6 if the Pats lose one more game (any game will do). The Jets’ record over the next two weeks would not matter.
If the Fins lose to Kansas City, they can still win the division at 10-6 if the Pats lose to Oakland or Buffalo. If the Pats lose to Arizona, then the tiebreak would go to ‘strength of victory.’ I haven’t calculated where that currently stands between the Fins and Pats -- Miami might be able to win that, but it changes every week.
In order for the Fins to lose in New York and still win the division at 10-6, the Jets would have to lose their next two, and the Pats would need to lose at Buffalo (or have already lost their next two, as noted above).