phinsforlife
Active Roster
Great ball by Tua, and great result. But running this play to begin with still goes right up my tailpipe. That was a 13 yard TD pass on 4th and a long yard.
That play is awful math. Just terrible. I hope they realize this, but I am worried they don’t, because it is the same tendency from the last two years. They keep telling us it is going to change, but it doesn’t. One could argue it is the pre-season, and they were just being aggressive for the sake of practice. I hope so, but until I see the video game play calling somewhat moderate, I am worried it won’t. Aggressiveness is good, but there are times where it is smarter and more productive to dial it back.
I would estimate that play has about a 10% chance of success. This is River Cracraft we are talking about. Not Calvin Johnson. Short WRs are just not built for the end zone fade corner jump ball pass. They have tried this a bunch with Tyreek too, who is much better, and it still barely ever worked.
10% chance of the seven points doing this. It either goes for the TD, or the ball is turned over on downs, which is 0 points. That means the expected value of that pass is 0.7 points (.1*7).
95% chance of making a field goal from that distance. The field goal attempt has an expected value of 2.85 points (.95*3). Far superior to the pass which is worth 0.7 points. Not even close, you absolutely kick the FG as opposed to running that play.
If I am wrong about the % chance of completing that pass to Cracraft, in order to equal the expected value of the field goal, you have to believe there is a 41% chance of completing that ball to Cracraft (.41*7=2.85). Whatever the chance is of completing that pass, and it could be higher than 10%, it is still a lot lower than 41%!
Then this also ignores running a higher probability play (short pass or run) that just gets the first down. Something designed to go 2 yards. That is probably a 50%-60% chance, but I am not sure. Once you convert the first down, you then have a decent chance at the TD, or the FG try again worst case. Run all the numbers, you still end up higher than 0.7 points expected value of the corner fade to Cracraft.
Anyway of the 3 possible choices, kick the FG, run the high probability play to just get the first down, or try the corner fade to Cracraft, it is not even close. They did the worst possible thing, by a longshot. They keep doing the same thing all the time in the regular season again, and it will cost them important games. You cannot operate this far out of the realm of what makes sense, and expect for it to work on a sustainable basis. This is just gambling. Sometimes you can get lucky doing stupid things and gambling this way, but over time you will lose all of your money!
That play is awful math. Just terrible. I hope they realize this, but I am worried they don’t, because it is the same tendency from the last two years. They keep telling us it is going to change, but it doesn’t. One could argue it is the pre-season, and they were just being aggressive for the sake of practice. I hope so, but until I see the video game play calling somewhat moderate, I am worried it won’t. Aggressiveness is good, but there are times where it is smarter and more productive to dial it back.
I would estimate that play has about a 10% chance of success. This is River Cracraft we are talking about. Not Calvin Johnson. Short WRs are just not built for the end zone fade corner jump ball pass. They have tried this a bunch with Tyreek too, who is much better, and it still barely ever worked.
10% chance of the seven points doing this. It either goes for the TD, or the ball is turned over on downs, which is 0 points. That means the expected value of that pass is 0.7 points (.1*7).
95% chance of making a field goal from that distance. The field goal attempt has an expected value of 2.85 points (.95*3). Far superior to the pass which is worth 0.7 points. Not even close, you absolutely kick the FG as opposed to running that play.
If I am wrong about the % chance of completing that pass to Cracraft, in order to equal the expected value of the field goal, you have to believe there is a 41% chance of completing that ball to Cracraft (.41*7=2.85). Whatever the chance is of completing that pass, and it could be higher than 10%, it is still a lot lower than 41%!
Then this also ignores running a higher probability play (short pass or run) that just gets the first down. Something designed to go 2 yards. That is probably a 50%-60% chance, but I am not sure. Once you convert the first down, you then have a decent chance at the TD, or the FG try again worst case. Run all the numbers, you still end up higher than 0.7 points expected value of the corner fade to Cracraft.
Anyway of the 3 possible choices, kick the FG, run the high probability play to just get the first down, or try the corner fade to Cracraft, it is not even close. They did the worst possible thing, by a longshot. They keep doing the same thing all the time in the regular season again, and it will cost them important games. You cannot operate this far out of the realm of what makes sense, and expect for it to work on a sustainable basis. This is just gambling. Sometimes you can get lucky doing stupid things and gambling this way, but over time you will lose all of your money!
