Analyzing Risk

[spiketex]

I love this time of year, evaluating the merits and deficiencies of draft candidates. It occurred to me that while Jeff Ireland quantifies a top 200 players on his board, he probably doesn't have an ongoing mathematician evaluating risk to the board. Some players are clearly higher risk than others and presumably Jeff is mentally taking this into account, but maybe this represents where the draft process could go. For example, some major companies establish the level of risk that they are prepared to accommodate and manage to those parameters.
Some positions eg QB are high to very high risk in drafting a good one compared with say drafting a safety (Reshad Jones and Chris Clemons were both 5th round draft picks).
Welcome your thoughts.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Ireland doesn't seem to like the boom/bust types and tends to go the safe route. Sometimes that works in his favor (Pouncey), sometimes not so much.

But there are a lot of real talented players with some injuries who could be real tempting at #12 (Milliner, Star, Jones, even Carradine). There are also some physically gifted players like Ansah and Patterson who might not help the team right away, but have star qualities and should be worth the wait. The question is whether Ireland can wait with his job clearly on the line.

Cooper is a talented, safer pick that seems to have Ireland and the Dolphins written all over him.