phinsforlife
Active Roster
This issue was raised in another thread. Make believe the Dolphins were given a bye into the Super Bowl last year as the AFC representative. Make believe Tua is fully healthy and playing.
The Dolphins are spotted a 17 point lead against the Eagles to start the game. What betting odds would you need to bet on the Dolphins to hold on and win the game?
Pro Dolphins winning the game with a 17 point head start:
17 points is a massive head start. There was only one game in the entire NFL last year with a spread greater than 17 points. That game was the last game of the season too when Baltimore needed the win and Cleveland was tanking and had no QB (interestingly Baltimore covered). So basically, there was no game last year with greater than a 17 point spread - that means even the best of the NFL versus the dregs of the NFL.
17 points is a massive number. At the end of the day, even the worst teams have NFL players. Sure there are games when it looks like men against boys, but it usually isn't. This is not college or high school where you can have one sided matchups where one team just physically is in another league than their opponent. Bad teams upset good teams all the time too.
The Dolphins were a perfectly average team last year. There is no way an average team shouldn't be able to beat a better team nearly every single team if they are spotted 17 points. It is just too big of a lead to cough up. 50% of games in the NFL are 1 score games. 77% of games in the NFL have a 17 point margin or less. Interesting side note - over the last 25 years, the Dolphins scored the most points in the league (70 vs Denver in 2023), and were involved in the lowest scoring game in the league, a 3-0 loss to Pittsburgh in 2007.
Con the Dolphins winning the game with a 17 point head start:
Football is a game of matchups. This would have been a terrible matchup for the Dolphins. The physicality of the Eagles DL and OL versus our guys, that is a terrible mismatch.
Kansas City is a more physical team than us, and they got decimated by the Eagles. They were down 34-0 and 40-6, until garbage time in the 4th quarter when the Eagles took their foot of the gas, and it finished 40-22, which still covered the 17 points. In a situation where the Eagles have to win the game against the Dolphins, they are not taking their foot off the gas, until they are well ahead and it is over.
Mahomes was getting pummeled back there. If Tua was the QB, despite the Dolphins attempts to get the ball out more quickly, there is a good chance Tua would not have made it out of the first quarter. If Tua did survive the game, it would only be because the Dolphins were throwing sideways, in one second, and then going three and out doing it. Only to watch the Eagles then have repeated 6 minute drives with their OL and Saquon Barkley stuffing it down our face in methodical fashion. Heck there is a chance they could tush push their way down the field against us!
As an added bonus, Fangio is there. This is not a Fangio is a super genius comment, but more that he we just be very familiar with everything the Dolphins offense wanted to do, and all of Tua's strengths and weaknesses. I think there is a good chance Miami would get totally shut out in this game. Just like Kansas City basically was, until garbage time.
My Conclusion:
After thinking about it, I think the Dolphins almost have zero chance in that game. In the NFL, it is a near impossibility to not feel good about an average team getting a 17 point head start against a good team, but in this case, I don't feel good. If you asked me about Miami versus Buffalo or KC or Detroit, I would take Miami and the 17 points all day long, probably at less than even odds as well. However, that Philly team would have been about the worst possible matchup for us. Every weakness the Dolphins have, the Eagles were perfectly built to exploit. So I think almost no chance for the Dolphins against the Eagles, even with Tua, and a 17 point head start.
The Dolphins are spotted a 17 point lead against the Eagles to start the game. What betting odds would you need to bet on the Dolphins to hold on and win the game?
Pro Dolphins winning the game with a 17 point head start:
17 points is a massive head start. There was only one game in the entire NFL last year with a spread greater than 17 points. That game was the last game of the season too when Baltimore needed the win and Cleveland was tanking and had no QB (interestingly Baltimore covered). So basically, there was no game last year with greater than a 17 point spread - that means even the best of the NFL versus the dregs of the NFL.
17 points is a massive number. At the end of the day, even the worst teams have NFL players. Sure there are games when it looks like men against boys, but it usually isn't. This is not college or high school where you can have one sided matchups where one team just physically is in another league than their opponent. Bad teams upset good teams all the time too.
The Dolphins were a perfectly average team last year. There is no way an average team shouldn't be able to beat a better team nearly every single team if they are spotted 17 points. It is just too big of a lead to cough up. 50% of games in the NFL are 1 score games. 77% of games in the NFL have a 17 point margin or less. Interesting side note - over the last 25 years, the Dolphins scored the most points in the league (70 vs Denver in 2023), and were involved in the lowest scoring game in the league, a 3-0 loss to Pittsburgh in 2007.
Con the Dolphins winning the game with a 17 point head start:
Football is a game of matchups. This would have been a terrible matchup for the Dolphins. The physicality of the Eagles DL and OL versus our guys, that is a terrible mismatch.
Kansas City is a more physical team than us, and they got decimated by the Eagles. They were down 34-0 and 40-6, until garbage time in the 4th quarter when the Eagles took their foot of the gas, and it finished 40-22, which still covered the 17 points. In a situation where the Eagles have to win the game against the Dolphins, they are not taking their foot off the gas, until they are well ahead and it is over.
Mahomes was getting pummeled back there. If Tua was the QB, despite the Dolphins attempts to get the ball out more quickly, there is a good chance Tua would not have made it out of the first quarter. If Tua did survive the game, it would only be because the Dolphins were throwing sideways, in one second, and then going three and out doing it. Only to watch the Eagles then have repeated 6 minute drives with their OL and Saquon Barkley stuffing it down our face in methodical fashion. Heck there is a chance they could tush push their way down the field against us!
As an added bonus, Fangio is there. This is not a Fangio is a super genius comment, but more that he we just be very familiar with everything the Dolphins offense wanted to do, and all of Tua's strengths and weaknesses. I think there is a good chance Miami would get totally shut out in this game. Just like Kansas City basically was, until garbage time.
My Conclusion:
After thinking about it, I think the Dolphins almost have zero chance in that game. In the NFL, it is a near impossibility to not feel good about an average team getting a 17 point head start against a good team, but in this case, I don't feel good. If you asked me about Miami versus Buffalo or KC or Detroit, I would take Miami and the 17 points all day long, probably at less than even odds as well. However, that Philly team would have been about the worst possible matchup for us. Every weakness the Dolphins have, the Eagles were perfectly built to exploit. So I think almost no chance for the Dolphins against the Eagles, even with Tua, and a 17 point head start.
What if grasshoppers were the size of SUVs? Is it an African or European grasshopper? Ahhhh.....
