Any change in Tua/OC's game?

[Rev Kev]

Until this past Sunday I had not watched Tua play an entire game for the Dolphins. However , before the game I me a Dolphins fan who told me a criticism of Tua's play had been that he holds onto the ball too long. So, against the Patriots I was expecting to see same however it looked to me like Tua's release was quick, just fine.
When Tua played during the 2020 season was holding the ball too long a common criticism ?

For me this became true as the started fell to the wayside as he was already throwing into tight windows with little separation - the jags just weren’t open

 

[NBP81]

I believe his aggressive percentage is the most telling. And although that is one of the stats with massive influence from WR...I see that percentage actually higher by year end

I'd be surprised if that was the case and wouldnt necessarily be a good thing tbh... Having AGG% very high when you have guys like Waddle, Wilson and Fuller would probably mean Tua has a hard time finding the easier throws, and by easier throw, I mean the deepest open guy. The actual reason to get those SEP guys is to give your QB easier throws, making the offense more efficient. If you go get those guys and your AGG% is still through the roof, something is wrong either with the QB or the playcalls imo.

 

[Rev Kev]

They sure as hell should test if they can create pressure without blitzing.

If they can, I simply wouldnt load the box turning most RPOs into runs which would play right into their hands. Hard to say if the Fins will maintain their stance on a ~50/50 run/pass ratio on 1st down at home but if they do, and still get around 3.8 yards per attempt like they did vs NE, well the Bills will take that every single time. By comparison, the Fins were getting 9.1 yards per attempt passing on 1st down, but still opted to run more than pass on that down.

So yeah, dont send extra pressure and see if the Fins still try to run most of the time on 1st down, if they do, just let the Fins try and win a close game which plays in your favor big time.

With our Offense i am only running in 1st down to soften the blitz packages because ultimately scores rest on the left arm targets moving the chains

 

[artdnj]

Miami has the offensive weapons to light up the scoreboard... but will this o-line allow that to happen?

Time will tell, long road to hoe there. I can’t wait to see the offenses evolution but it won’t happen without cohesion On the oline.

 

[NBP81]

Time will tell, long road to hoe there. I can’t wait to see the offenses evolution but it won’t happen without cohesion On the oline.

I'll be honest here and the OL wasnt all that bad, the whole offense was fine when you consider where they were playing. The Fins offense were above average in every single passing metric compared to the average of offenses that played in NE last season, and even better than the 2019 version that had fans in the stands. Its easy to overlook these things and just compare the number to other games in different contexts.

The only thing Im somewhat worried about is some playcalling frequencies. Fins ran the ball 11 times on first down for 3.8 yards per attempt while they were very successful passing the ball on that down for 9.1 yards per attempt, and still ended the game with 10 pass attempts on that down.

Most every NFL offenses arent as good on 3rd down as any other down and it feels like the most common approach to this problem is trying to get the offense in easier 3rd down situations. Why not just try and avoid 3rd downs alltogether by only running on 1st down to keep Ds honest? Running feels safe and all but man at 3.8 yards per attempt when you can almost triple that passing the ball, feels like a no brainer to me.

At some point on Sunday, the Fins were desperate to get something going and ended up in a 2nd and 4 situation. They ran the ball lost yardage and got off the field after the 3 and out. Fins didnt get many opportunities on sunday as the D was playing bend but dont break heavy. With that in mind, 2nd and 4 when you've been trying to establish the run all game with marginal success was a no brainer for a passing play. Especially when they were running for 1.6 yards per attempt on 2nd down all game.

 

[Ray R]

Great post. Where do you pull these stats from?

Your trying to "bait" me again, aren't you? = LOL

 

[rickd13]

I'll be honest here and the OL wasnt all that bad, the whole offense was fine when you consider where they were playing. The Fins offense were above average in every single passing metric compared to the average of offenses that played in NE last season, and even better than the 2019 version that had fans in the stands. Its easy to overlook these things and just compare the number to other games in different contexts.

The only thing Im somewhat worried about is some playcalling frequencies. Fins ran the ball 11 times on first down for 3.8 yards per attempt while they were very successful passing the ball on that down for 9.1 yards per attempt, and still ended the game with 10 pass attempts on that down.

Most every NFL offenses arent as good on 3rd down as any other down and it feels like the most common approach to this problem is trying to get the offense in easier 3rd down situations. Why not just try and avoid 3rd downs alltogether by only running on 1st down to keep Ds honest? Running feels safe and all but man at 3.8 yards per attempt when you can almost triple that passing the ball, feels like a no brainer to me.

At some point on Sunday, the Fins were desperate to get something going and ended up in a 2nd and 4 situation. They ran the ball lost yardage and got off the field after the 3 and out. Fins didnt get many opportunities on sunday as the D was playing bend but dont break heavy. With that in mind, 2nd and 4 when you've been trying to establish the run all game with marginal success was a no brainer for a passing play. Especially when they were running for 1.6 yards per attempt on 2nd down all game.

Totally agree. Throwing on first down, when you are not playing from way behind, is such an advantages down for the offense. The defense can't be too aggressive, because literally every play in the playbook is open to the offense on first down.

 

[FinzFan1980]

I'll be honest here and the OL wasnt all that bad, the whole offense was fine when you consider where they were playing. The Fins offense were above average in every single passing metric compared to the average of offenses that played in NE last season, and even better than the 2019 version that had fans in the stands. Its easy to overlook these things and just compare the number to other games in different contexts.

The only thing Im somewhat worried about is some playcalling frequencies. Fins ran the ball 11 times on first down for 3.8 yards per attempt while they were very successful passing the ball on that down for 9.1 yards per attempt, and still ended the game with 10 pass attempts on that down.

Most every NFL offenses arent as good on 3rd down as any other down and it feels like the most common approach to this problem is trying to get the offense in easier 3rd down situations. Why not just try and avoid 3rd downs alltogether by only running on 1st down to keep Ds honest? Running feels safe and all but man at 3.8 yards per attempt when you can almost triple that passing the ball, feels like a no brainer to me.

At some point on Sunday, the Fins were desperate to get something going and ended up in a 2nd and 4 situation. They ran the ball lost yardage and got off the field after the 3 and out. Fins didnt get many opportunities on sunday as the D was playing bend but dont break heavy. With that in mind, 2nd and 4 when you've been trying to establish the run all game with marginal success was a no brainer for a passing play. Especially when they were running for 1.6 yards per attempt on 2nd down all game.

I got to say…I don’t comment on here much, mostly just read everyone’s posts; but I love your statistical breakdowns. It adds so much context to what is going on. I really appreciate the effort you make with this. Thank you!

 

[Ray R]

Flores seems clueless on what to do with the offensive side of the football. Musical chairs with the OCs and musical chairs with the quarterbacks including in this last game. Needs to wake up and start making decisions instead of all the wishy-washiness that’s gone on under his tenure.

He may be "dumb", but he's a lot smarter than you are!

 

[Ray R]

I'd be surprised if that was the case and wouldnt necessarily be a good thing tbh... Having AGG% very high when you have guys like Waddle, Wilson and Fuller would probably mean Tua has a hard time finding the easier throws, and by easier throw, I mean the deepest open guy. The actual reason to get those SEP guys is to give your QB easier throws, making the offense more efficient. If you go get those guys and your AGG% is still through the roof, something is wrong either with the QB or the playcalls imo.

I recognize there are a lot of variables that aren't accounted for in these stats, but they do give some perspective. It's up to the user of those stats to "add coloring" to put them in more perspective; I specifically am referring to the team coaches for determining what they can focus on to improve play.

 

[NBP81]

Totally agree. Throwing on first down, when you are not playing from way behind, is such an advantages down for the offense. The defense can't be too aggressive, because literally every play in the playbook is open to the offense on first down.

Exactly! I understand the playing on the road in NE angle, but going overboard for the sake of being "safe" while not efficient is really not the way to go IMO. The cost of being safe is alot of difficult situations on 3rd down that could have been avoided if you'd been more aggressive on 1st, and I'm not saying crazy aggressive here, just more than 49% passing when it was actually the situation you had the most success with all game...

I got to say…I don’t comment on here much, mostly just read everyone’s posts; but I love your statistical breakdowns. It adds so much context to what is going on. I really appreciate the effort you make with this. Thank you!

Thank you! I appreciate that.

 

[artdnj]

I'll be honest here and the OL wasnt all that bad, the whole offense was fine when you consider where they were playing. The Fins offense were above average in every single passing metric compared to the average of offenses that played in NE last season, and even better than the 2019 version that had fans in the stands. Its easy to overlook these things and just compare the number to other games in different contexts.

The only thing Im somewhat worried about is some playcalling frequencies. Fins ran the ball 11 times on first down for 3.8 yards per attempt while they were very successful passing the ball on that down for 9.1 yards per attempt, and still ended the game with 10 pass attempts on that down.

Most every NFL offenses arent as good on 3rd down as any other down and it feels like the most common approach to this problem is trying to get the offense in easier 3rd down situations. Why not just try and avoid 3rd downs alltogether by only running on 1st down to keep Ds honest? Running feels safe and all but man at 3.8 yards per attempt when you can almost triple that passing the ball, feels like a no brainer to me.

At some point on Sunday, the Fins were desperate to get something going and ended up in a 2nd and 4 situation. They ran the ball lost yardage and got off the field after the 3 and out. Fins didnt get many opportunities on sunday as the D was playing bend but dont break heavy. With that in mind, 2nd and 4 when you've been trying to establish the run all game with marginal success was a no brainer for a passing play. Especially when they were running for 1.6 yards per attempt on 2nd down all game.

I think the play callers are still figuring out what our "identity" is, run vs short pass. I think it will evolve, has to for us to be successful. The oline wasn't horrible, needs to get cohesion and players have to know what the other is going to do. The lack of cohesion shows on those third down passing downs where they bring the house and it's a barn break. I hope it continues to evolve and we can get receivers deep and use Gesicki for passes vs blocking. I can't wait for the day where we can pick up blitzes when we know they are blitzing...I see progress, just not a lot or shall I say where it needs to be.

 

[Delsolar16]

Are there any statistics that try to assess quarterback play when the 1st read isn't open? It seems like this is an area where the offensive production breaks down, and IIRC this was mentioned by Kurt Warner on his breakdown of Tua's 2020 season which I thought was an overall fair critique. I've noticed myself starting to wince/cringe when I see him having to look off his first read because I've started to expect incompletions or sacks, though not sure if the data would support this.

 

[NBP81]

Are there any statistics that try to assess quarterback play when the 1st read isn't open? It seems like this is an area where the offensive production breaks down, and IIRC this was mentioned by Kurt Warner on his breakdown of Tua's 2020 season which I thought was an overall fair critique. I've noticed myself starting to wince/cringe when I see him having to look off his first read because I've started to expect incompletions or sacks, though not sure if the data would support this.

No there arent any stats on those. You can turn to PFF for that kind of analysis but those arent stats, they're a cumulation of opinions so alot of human error/lack of informaion by the graders(I dont know how you call someone who works for PFF) needs to be acounted for.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

They sure as hell should test if they can create pressure without blitzing.

If they can, I simply wouldnt load the box turning most RPOs into runs which would play right into their hands. Hard to say if the Fins will maintain their stance on a ~50/50 run/pass ratio on 1st down at home but if they do, and still get around 3.8 yards per attempt like they did vs NE, well the Bills will take that every single time. By comparison, the Fins were getting 9.1 yards per attempt passing on 1st down, but still opted to run more than pass on that down.

So yeah, dont send extra pressure and see if the Fins still try to run most of the time on 1st down, if they do, just let the Fins try and win a close game which plays in your favor big time.

Well thought out. Interesting to see what happens and how it plays out. Fuller obviously adds another element.

Now, on the other side does Miami use the Pittsburgh blueprint on defense?