Any change in Tua/OC's game? | Page 4 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Any change in Tua/OC's game?

Are there any statistics that try to assess quarterback play when the 1st read isn't open? It seems like this is an area where the offensive production breaks down, and IIRC this was mentioned by Kurt Warner on his breakdown of Tua's 2020 season which I thought was an overall fair critique. I've noticed myself starting to wince/cringe when I see him having to look off his first read because I've started to expect incompletions or sacks, though not sure if the data would support this.

You'll probably have to rewatch the game and do your own analysis
 
Fins don't have the pass rush to do what Steelers do.
Actually the Fins and Steelers Ds last year were sort of similar in their approach last season. Fins and Steelers were both 2nd and 3rd(In the NFL) when it comes to blitz% relying heavily on the blitz for pressure, Pitts were more effective at creating Hurries and Knockdowns(QB knock downs) while the Fins got more Takeaways than the Steelers. Have to note that the pressure% margin between the Steelers and Fins is much larger than the one the Fins hold on BUFF with the takeaways(with 2).

I agree with with your post to a large extent. But I still think they should try. Even if it doesnt work as good as it did for them, they're much more likely to slow them down that way IMO.
 
I don’t have a problem with some RPO, I just wouldn’t want it to be the main staple of the offense.
RPO will never be a main staple for any team in the NFL I damn near bet my left nut on that, I'm not saying you mind you but a lot of people don't understand that in college the linemen are able to go 3 yards down the field and in the NFL they're only allowed to go one yard. RPOs in the NFL rely on run concepts that aren’t designed to send linemen vertical. Such as outside-zone play and various sweeps that rely on pin blocks and OL pulling outside. Colleges run more vertical routes that take longer to develop than RPO routes in the NFL, but that’s another benefit of linemen getting 3 yards of downfield.
The typical counter to RPOs in the NFL is to play man coverage. They try to confuse defenders on whether to play their run fits or their coverage assignments. They do this in college by running the qb's a ton more in college. They try to erase this by running man coverage by telling the defenders to stick to their men and dropping a safety down to ensure they still have enough numbers in the box to stop the run. In the NFL teams punish man coverage by attacking it with routes designed to free up receivers, such as mesh, switch routes, and wheel routes. However colleges attack this by just running the quarterback, which comes back to my original statement NFL linemen are able to go down the field one yard before the ball is passed in college they're able to go down 3 yards without being flagged. But I do think with Tua's experience of running RPO so successfully at Alabama it definitely could be put in the place in a timely manner to allow us to have success, at least that's my hope.
 
Couple of notes about the Fins passing game compared to last year when Tua started.

  • IAY(average intended air yards): 9.4 yards(7th) compared to 7.7 last season. While almost 2 full yards is sort of a big deal, I do remember Tua being close to top 5 in this category after 3-4 games last season so Im not as surprised to see this as some might be. Important to note here is that the offense toned down a bit after that and Tua fell ways down that he finished the season in the bottom half of the league. Is this something the Fins want or is it something they'll try and make Tua slow down on? Or is it flat out the reason Chan is gone? It'll be interesting to see if the offense keeps this up.

  • AGG%: 25.9%(4th) compared to 20.3% last year. Now this stat is easy to misinterpret because it involves alot of moving parts, the willingness of a QB to throw into tight windows and the ability of the receiving options to gain separation on any given play. Was kind of surprised to see this as I thought the fact the Fins added alot of wiggle in the receiving room might lower the number of hard throws the QB had to make this year. Either the new additions arent created as much separation as hoped or Tua has grown more comfortable with tight windows.

  • So how did the Fins WRs do in SEP? 2 Dolphins qualified with enough targets to be shown in nextgen's chart. Jaylen Waddle posted a 3.6 yards average separation on his targets while Parker did his usual 2.1. For reference sake, the leader in SEP for the Fins last season was Jakeem Grant with an average of 3.1 yards of separation per targets. Parker got 7 targets while Waddle got 6. It does look like Tua was more comfortable with NFL open in the NE game.

  • AYTS(average air yards to the sticks): This is another category where Tua started strong and lost some ground as the season went along. In the NE he actually threw the ball 0.6 past the sticks(8th) compared to 0.8 yards short of the sticks last year.

  • TT(time to throw): Nothing new here, 2.58 seconds to throw(9th) on average compared to 2.55 last season. I can confidently tell you that Tua isnt taking too long going through his reads.

TLDR; *Fins passing game was more aggressive by a good margin playing on the road in NE than it was last year. *The WRs are more diverse giving the QB more options. *This strategy netted +1.2 yards of effeciency per attempt. Which is very nice, because of you now, the tendency of teams throwing for a 6.6 YPA in NE on average.

Good stuff, an interesting stat related to Chan is the last time he was in Miami prior to his second comeback we ranked 8th in scoring offense that year in 2001. The following year without him we dropped outside the top 10. By 2010 we ranked bottom 5 in the league. 5 years later we ranked bottom 5 still. Another 2 years later we ranked bottom 5 again. Chan comes back 2020, and in spite of us having a QB situation in which we have a rookie guy starting in the middle of nowhere, we still ranked 15th in the league. That is the highest ranking we had..... since Chan left in 2001. I don't think Chan is gone because of that at all. With an improved Tua, the weapons we have this year, I do feel Chan would have been a great asset for us.

Tua did a great job delivering the ball where it needed to. The play calling started off great but towards the 2nd half we lost a lot of steam. There were moments where either our pocket had a tough time holding up, or we saw some mistakes like Kindley tripping over his man to the left. I think that resulted in us strategizing a safer approach to minimize mistakes. In spite of things not being perfect, our ceiling is high with the return of Fuller, and Austin taking helm in his natural spot. I also want to see more of Mike Gesicki as well.
 
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