Apparently it is Smith or a trade | Page 6 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Apparently it is Smith or a trade

jbond said:
Saban said he 1) wants a decent QB, 2) a veteran QB as backup and 3) someone to groom......a QB at #2 fits nicely into his plans if that's the route he decides to take.

True, but we gotta remember that first and foremost we want to trade down. Proclaiming this pick this early no doubt is specifically for that intent.
 
inFINSible said:
Why is that absurd? You're talking about a 3 or 4 million dollar a year player. A player with that kind of salary, sitting on the bench, is what I think is absurd.

Remember we're talking about the number two pick in the entire draft! It is vitally important that this pick be a homerun. I don't know if QB is the most risky position of all to translate to the NFL but, I wouldn't bet against that being correct.

So, it will take at least 4 years to admit that the pick is a bust....two years on the bench and being worked into the starting role....and then two more years for the "oh sh*t, what have we done" feelings to fully sink in.....if this pick is a QB who turns out to be a bust we're sunk for at LEAST four years....

This pick has to be a sure fire day one starter to have the most value now and 4 years from now....we can't afford to miss.

Of the 12 QBs taken in the first three slots over the past 10 drafts, eight are still starters. Most of them didn't start their first year.
 
DrAstroZoom said:
Of the 12 QBs taken in the first three slots over the past 10 drafts, eight are still starters. Most of them didn't start their first year.
How many are actual 100% franchise QBs? How many still have question marks? How many haven't fully developed yet?
 
Bottom line: Smith is a good character and has prototype skills for a QB who can develope nicely into the lineup next year and maybe even late in the year this year. Linehan is behind getting this kid because of the connection and character and Saban's long term plans.

But make no mistake about it.....He will trade down and take Caddy at #5 to get more picks and take Greene later. But I believe he will take Smith at #2 at this point.
 
inFINSible said:
How many are actual 100% franchise QBs? How many still have question marks? How many haven't fully developed yet?


I'm just saying it's not unprecedented for a #2 pick to have a delayed impact. I'm working up some more numbers that may or may not support this. I'll share later ...
 
Why are some of you people so reluctant to take Smith?

Doesnt it tell you something that if Cleveland and Tampa are hinting they would like to trade up to obtain him? Both of these teams have better QBs than we do btw..

Did you guys watch the locker room report yesterday? What did Vonnie Holliday, Kevin Carter, and Gus Frerotte have in common? hint.. They are all very intelligent, well spoken, team oriented individuals- just like Alex Smith is. Saban doesnt want any cromagnon players on this team. Smith has all the right mixes for this team.

All the while Feeley looked like David from 'Roseanne.'

You guys may hate it now, but 2 years from now I bet that 70 percent of you will all have Alex Smith somewhere in your sig.
 
DrAstroZoom said:
I'm just saying it's not unprecedented for a #2 pick to have a delayed impact. I'm working up some more numbers that may or may not support this. I'll share later ...
Cool, looking forward to seeing them...:)

I think that GMs or coaches fall in love with a QB or their evaluation of a QB and don't act fully rational when making their choice. it's obvious that unless the prospective QB is so far head and shoulders above any other prospect the risk is just too great. to me, it just seems to me to be a huge risk, and more likely to back fire than any other position.

Any other position, if you pick a bust, you can cut your losses in two years minimum.....Like I said before, if you bust on a QB it's going to take four years before the team can bail.
 
fishypete said:
Telling? Isn't he the same coach that selected Simms...a player he should have known that couldn't play QB in a west coast offense....isn't he the same coach that just had Griese re-signed? Yea...he's smart alright.

First of all...Simms wasn't a 1st round or top 5 pick. The spot were Simms was selected was a spot were the reward could be better than the risk...remember he was the last pick in the 3rd round. Maybe Gruden decided to take a shot at him...maybe he felt that he could do well in a West Coast system...as far as I know...Gruden didn't try to trade up to get Simms. It looks like Gruden is so high on Alex Smith that he might actually trade the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd pick to move up 3 spots...that's a big difference than selecting and taking a shot at a QB in the 3rd round...you can't compare the two. And of course he re-signed Griese...he finished the season as their starter...played pretty well...and he couldn't bank on Alex Smith being there at #5 or being able to trade up for him so of course he had to re-sign Griese for insurance. C'mon man think about it. I think you dislike Smith so much that you are looking for excuses to not draft him. Gruden...is smart alright.

Personally, I would love it if we traded with Tampa and got a #5 pick, a 2nd rounder and a 3rd rounder...that would be great but than again...what if Alex Smith is a franchise QB...that maybe worth our whole draft? Saban may be gambling here...but I trust him and I hope the outcome will be favorable.



Go Fins!!!
 
Phinsdude said:
Is anyone a little bothered by the fact that it was said Condon is the hardest Agent in football, and that he could demand more at #2 then Rodgers at #1, ala Eli Manning last year, where he got sickly numbers.


Huh? That makes no sense....the reason Eli got #1 money last year even though he went to NY, is that he was selected by SD at #1 originally. If Condon thinks the #2 pick should be paid more than the #1, the guy is out of his mind...i dont care who you are, you dont deserve to be paid more than the guy who was picked before you just because your agent thinks you're "more special" than the previous pick. He says that, but he wont get more than Rodgers IMO.
 
inFINSible said:
Cool, looking forward to seeing them...:)

I think that GMs or coaches fall in love with a QB or their evaluation of a QB and don't act fully rational when making their choice. it's obvious that unless the prospective QB is so far head and shoulders above any other prospect the risk is just too great. to me, it just seems to me to be a huge risk, and more likely to back fire than any other position.

Any other position, if you pick a bust, you can cut your losses in two years minimum.....Like I said before, if you bust on a QB it's going to take four years before the team can bail.


Ok ... here are the #2 overall picks from 1999 to the present and how many games they started in their rookie year.

99 McNabb (6)
00 Arrington (11)
01 Leonard Davis (16)
02 Peppers (12)
03 Charles Rogers (5)
04 Gallery (15)

These figures seem to indicate Smith would need to see some starting action in 05 to "live up" to previous picks' performance. Of course, the year McNabb started, he had to tearn down the Doug Pederson legacy before cracking the starting lineup. :lol:
 
We have too many too holes to plug but if no trade is available on draft day then why not take Smith? We need a QB for the future and he could be it. I like Adrian McPherson. He has a past but also the NFL skills. The good thing he is a late pick not a top pick.
 
Back
Top Bottom