Are you as smart as an AI based Draft Mock? | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Are you as smart as an AI based Draft Mock?

Ray R

Ray R

Club Member
Joined
May 19, 2017
Messages
29,908
Reaction score
46,857
Age
78
Location
High Point, NC
USA Today had an AI generated 1st round draft mock. I consider this about as unbiased a mock draft that can be expected. I have identified which positions got the most use and which positions fell earliest. Here it is:

QB, Picks are 1, 9, 21 - yielding a total of 3, 1st round picks.
CB, Picks are 2, 18, 26, 29 - yielding a total of 4, 1st round picks.
E, Picks are 3, 15, 16, 17, 19, 27, 28 - yielding a total of 7, 1st round picks.
OT, Picks are 4, 6, 10, 31, 32 - yielding a total of 5, 1st round picks.
DT, Picks are 5, 13, 23 - yielding a total of 3, 1st round picks.
WR, Picks are 7, 8, 11, 20 - yielding a total of 4, 1st round picks.
OG, Picks are 12, 24 - yielding a total of 2, 1st round picks.
TE, Pick is 14 - yielding a total of 1, 1st round picks.
RB, Pick is 22 - yielding a total of 1, 1st round picks.
OL, Pick is 25 - yielding a total of 1, 1st round picks.
S, Pick is 30 - yielding a total of 1, 1st round picks.

I found the number of "3" 1st round picks for QB to be lower than many of the posts I've read.
I found the number of "7" 1st round picks for Edge to be higher than many of the posts I've read.
I found the number of picks for offensive positions to be "17".
I found the number of picks for defensive positions to be "15".

Based on that, how close is your mock draft to the AI mock draft from USA-Today?
Are you smarter than a computer? - LOL
 
Ray R said:
USA Today had an AI generated 1st round draft mock. I consider this about as unbiased a mock draft that can be expected. I have identified which positions got the most use and which positions fell earliest. Here it is:

QB, Picks are 1, 9, 21 - yielding a total of 3, 1st round picks.
CB, Picks are 2, 18, 26, 29 - yielding a total of 4, 1st round picks.
E, Picks are 3, 15, 16, 17, 19, 27, 28 - yielding a total of 7, 1st round picks.
OT, Picks are 4, 6, 10, 31, 32 - yielding a total of 5, 1st round picks.
DT, Picks are 5, 13, 23 - yielding a total of 3, 1st round picks.
WR, Picks are 7, 8, 11, 20 - yielding a total of 4, 1st round picks.
OG, Picks are 12, 24 - yielding a total of 2, 1st round picks.
TE, Pick is 14 - yielding a total of 1, 1st round picks.
RB, Pick is 22 - yielding a total of 1, 1st round picks.
OL, Pick is 25 - yielding a total of 1, 1st round picks.
S, Pick is 30 - yielding a total of 1, 1st round picks.

I found the number of "3" 1st round picks for QB to be lower than many of the posts I've read.
I found the number of "7" 1st round picks for Edge to be higher than many of the posts I've read.
I found the number of picks for offensive positions to be "17".
I found the number of picks for defensive positions to be "15".

Based on that, how close is your mock draft to the AI mock draft from USA-Today?
Are you smarter than a computer? - LOL
Click to expand...
I think you may have a misunderstanding of how AI works.
 
Mach2 said:
I think you may have a misunderstanding of how AI works.
Click to expand...
I simply quoted the results of an AI based draft, not the concepts of how it works.

I learned about AI in my final Physics course back in 2009.

I've seen the results of AI based searches on the internet and know for a fact that those searches were not as deep, or as thorough as the AI people would like you to believe.
 
Ray R said:
I simply quoted the results of an AI based draft, not the concepts of how it works.

I learned about AI in my final Physics course back in 2009.

I've seen the results of AI based searches on the internet and know for a fact that those searches were not as deep, or as thorough as the AI people would like you to believe.
Click to expand...
Almost 20 years ago you may have learned about it, but I assure you the "AI" of today bears little resemblance beyond the moniker.

Perhaps I misunderstood what you were implying when you said "smarter than a computer". Not going to get into the weeds about algorithms or methodology of it despite the brilliant marketing name, a computer still doesn't possess "intelligence" or "understand" football, the draft process, player evals, etc. it is completely human originated data driven.

Don't get me wrong, it's amazing. Just not in itself intelligent by definition.

I'm probably being too picky, I know.
 
Mach2 said:
Almost 20 years ago you may have learned about it, but I assure you the "AI" of today bears little resemblance beyond the moniker.

Perhaps I misunderstood what you were implying when you said "smarter than a computer". Not going to get into the weeds about algorithms or methodology of it despite the brilliant marketing name, a computer still doesn't possess "intelligence" or "understand" football, the draft process, player evals, etc. it is completely human originated data driven.

Don't get me wrong, it's amazing. Just not in itself intelligent by definition.

I'm probably being too picky, I know.
Click to expand...
Just stop
 
Mach2 said:
Almost 20 years ago you may have learned about it, but I assure you the "AI" of today bears little resemblance beyond the moniker.

Perhaps I misunderstood what you were implying when you said "smarter than a computer". Not going to get into the weeds about algorithms or methodology of it despite the brilliant marketing name, a computer still doesn't possess "intelligence" or "understand" football, the draft process, player evals, etc. it is completely human originated data driven.

Don't get me wrong, it's amazing. Just not in itself intelligent by definition.

I'm probably being too picky, I know.
Click to expand...

To be clear. the AI program results we were shown in my physics class were derived by Boeing for wing design. Actually, that was about 30 years ago.

Their AI program would continuously change variables and if the result was an improvement, the computer would stay in the area of the equations where the changed variables showed improvement. When improvement stopped, the AI would go back to random change throughout the equation until it found another area where improvement occurred. Rinse and repeat.

The result of those calculated changes to the wing design to reduce turbulence was the addition of a box at the tip of the wing. A final review and analysis chose to adjust those results to just adding a vertical rise to the tip of the wing and that vertical rise on wing tips is now standard in the commercial airline industry.

This approach to programming required tremendous speed to sample the enormous number of changed variables and sort for areas of improvement. In the ancient past, the way to make computers faster was to run the in cryogenic baths far below zero degrees F.

Looking back, I now realize that when the Germans' Enigma code was being broken in England, there was a machine that did the basic decoding, and it was called the "Bomb". It had been developed by Polish mathematicians in the 1930's and patented in England in case war would occur with Germany. It turned out they were right.

Even then, it took an inordinate amount of time to decode the billions of potential code combinations before the correct decoding occurred. The Englishman who headed up the English decoding department made the "unique" decision to focus the decoding to the initial portions of the decoding range that showed early, sensible results. The result was a decoding time that could take weeks was reduced to getting a functional decoded message in as little as15 minutes.

Do you see what he did? He would re-focus of random translations to find an answer, based on those focused decoded areas that gave good results. This is a clear application of using what we now call Artificial Intelligence - an excellent term for what is going on.

The most interesting part of that history is that the British destroyed the "bomb" after the war was over and their secret service people drove the head of the decoding group to commit suicide because he was a homosexual. One of the Polish decoders who was involved from the beginning eventually became knighted for his efforts.

That sounds to me like those folks felt they created a "monster" which they may not be able to control if it got more developed.

Maybe they were right. - LOL
Anybody up for making a movie about this? - LOL
 
Last edited:
Ray R said:
To be clear. the AI program results we were shown in my physics class were derived by Boeing for wing design. Actually, that was about 30 years ago.

Their AI program would continuously change variables and if the result was an improvement, the computer would stay in the area of the equations where the changed variables showed improvement. When improvement stopped, the AI would go back to random change throughout the equation until it found another area where improvement occurred. Rinse and repeat.

The result of those calculated changes to the wing design to reduce turbulence was the addition of a box at the tip of the wing. A final review and analysis chose to adjust those results to just adding a vertical rise to the tip of the wing and that vertical rise on wing tips is now standard in the commercial airline industry.

This approach to programming required tremendous speed to sample the enormous number of changed variables and sort for areas of improvement. In the ancient past, the way to make computers faster was to run the in cryogenic baths far below zero degrees F.

Looking back, I now realize that when the Germans' Enigma code was being broken in England, the machine that did the basic decoding was called the "Bomb". It had been developed by Polish mathematicians in the 1930's and patented in England in case war would occur with Germany. It turned out they were right.

Even then, it took an inordinate amount of time to decode information until the Englishman who headed up the English decoding department made the "unique" decision to focus the decoding to the initial portions of the decoding range that showed sensible results. The result was a decoding time that could take weeks was reduced to getting a functional decoded message in as little as15 minutes.

Do you see what he did? He kept the focus of random translations to find an answer, to those focused decoded areas that gave good results. This is a clear application of using what we now call Artificial Intelligence - an excellent term for what is going on.

The most interesting part of that history is that the British destroyed the "bomb" after the war was over and their secret service people drove the head of the decoding group to commit suicide because he was a homosexual. One of the Polish decoders who was involved from the beginning eventually became knighted for his efforts.

That sounds to me like those folks felt they created a "monster" which they may not be able to control if it got more developed.

Maybe they were right. - LOL
Anybody up for making a movie about this? - LOL
Click to expand...
Ok, boomer.

:lol:
 
Ray R said:
To be clear. the AI program results we were shown in my physics class were derived by Boeing for wing design. Actually, that was about 30 years ago.

Their AI program would continuously change variables and if the result was an improvement, the computer would stay in the area of the equations where the changed variables showed improvement. When improvement stopped, the AI would go back to random change throughout the equation until it found another area where improvement occurred. Rinse and repeat.

The result of those calculated changes to the wing design to reduce turbulence was the addition of a box at the tip of the wing. A final review and analysis chose to adjust those results to just adding a vertical rise to the tip of the wing and that vertical rise on wing tips is now standard in the commercial airline industry.

This approach to programming required tremendous speed to sample the enormous number of changed variables and sort for areas of improvement. In the ancient past, the way to make computers faster was to run the in cryogenic baths far below zero degrees F.

Looking back, I now realize that when the Germans' Enigma code was being broken in England, the machine that did the basic decoding was called the "Bomb". It had been developed by Polish mathematicians in the 1930's and patented in England in case war would occur with Germany. It turned out they were right.

Even then, it took an inordinate amount of time to decode information until the Englishman who headed up the English decoding department made the "unique" decision to focus the decoding to the initial portions of the decoding range that showed sensible results. The result was a decoding time that could take weeks was reduced to getting a functional decoded message in as little as15 minutes.

Do you see what he did? He kept the focus of random translations to find an answer, to those focused decoded areas that gave good results. This is a clear application of using what we now call Artificial Intelligence - an excellent term for what is going on.

The most interesting part of that history is that the British destroyed the "bomb" after the war was over and their secret service people drove the head of the decoding group to commit suicide because he was a homosexual. One of the Polish decoders who was involved from the beginning eventually became knighted for his efforts.

That sounds to me like those folks felt they created a "monster" which they may not be able to control if it got more developed.

Maybe they were right. - LOL
Anybody up for making a movie about this? - LOL
Click to expand...
Interesting read Ray. Where's the part about the origin of some gun? šŸ˜‚
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom