Article absolutely KILLING Chambers

[Section126]

We were also facing some of the most pourous run Ds in the league in the NYJ and Colts.
CC is adequit at best imo, he will never give us that Chad Johnson, marvin Harrison type of guy that can just dominate.

get him a QB..then we will talk...the two guys you mentioned have Carson Palmer and Peyton Manning as their QB's.

 

[TexanPhinatic]

get him a QB..then we will talk...the two guys you mentioned have Carson Palmer and Peyton Manning as their QB's.

I think the article mentioned Brooks Bollinger throwing to Santana Moss? And hell, I agree on the QB thing, Id love to see Quinn/Smith/Russell/Brohm/Brennen in Aqua next year.

However we have been talking about CC's "potential" and "upside" for years now. I just dont see it anymore. Granted QBs have been an issue, but i havent seen CC be part of the solution instead of problem. Its just another dissapointment so far.
Can disagree with me all i want, thats your right, but thats how i feel.

 

[adamprez2003]

There's alot of truth to what the writer says but saying he's the worst is too much. Chambers needs to grow up and stop blaming his poor production on others. If he doesnt take an offseason to evaluate how he can improve his concentration he will never be nothing but a #2 receiver who started his career as a number 1. He has only himself to blame. The writer is right about one thing, either this year or next we'll replace him if he doesnt grow up and then he becomes damaged goods on the open market. If that happens he finishes his career as a number 2

 

[Shouright]

get him a QB..then we will talk...the two guys you mentioned have Carson Palmer and Peyton Manning as their QB's.

And Carson Palmer and Peyton Manning have Chad Johnson and Marvin Harrison as their wide receivers. Your argument works in reverse too.

I think a very big part of Chambers's problem is that deep down (or hell, maybe even on the surface...) he thinks like you do: he wants (or even NEEDS) his QB to make him better.

If and when Chris Chambers starts taking the attitude that he's going to make his QB better, I think we'll see a different receiver out there.

I suspect that receivers like Chad Johnson and Marvin Harrison have that attitude in abundance.

 

[finfan54]

are you kidding me? yeah, he's had a lot of passes thrown his way...and so many of them have been over, under, skipped, and defended it's ridiculous
he wouldn't have nearly as many grabs as he does if he wasn't as talented as he is

Im tired of the blaming the QB for CC. CC's problem is mental and he is simply collecting his paycheck. Same with Mcmicheal. Overrated. I would rather have a second Wes Welker but better yet, a Dwayne Jarrett (or calvin johnson should the opportunity present itself).

 

[Adam First]

What he said is absolutley true.

If he was such a great reciever, Wes Welker and Marty Booker shouldn't be ahead of him statistically.

And unlike Marty and Wes, Chris played 16 games.

 

[Todd347347]

You know what is sad.... its all the excuses. Besides all the ones listed in this thread there is one more.

"Chris Chambers didn't have big numbers becuase he was in a run first offense on college" ... please add this to the list. Draft nuts should remember this, yes the excuses were being made in college as well.

 

[muscle979]

What he said is absolutley true.

If he was such a great reciever, Wes Welker and Marty Booker shouldn't be ahead of him statistically.

And unlike Marty and Wes, Chris played 16 games.

A different QB must have been throwing passes to them. Or maybe it's because Chambers only runs routes that elite QBs can throw to.

People will be making excuses for Chambers for the rest of his career. Here's to hoping he proves me wrong because Miami needs a true number one receiver.

 

[Superself]

And Carson Palmer and Peyton Manning have Chad Johnson and Marvin Harrison as their wide receivers. Your argument works in reverse too.

I think a very big part of Chambers's problem is that deep down (or hell, maybe even on the surface...) he thinks like you do: he wants (or even NEEDS) his QB to make him better.

If and when Chris Chambers starts taking the attitude that he's going to make his QB better, I think we'll see a different receiver out there.
I suspect that receivers like Chad Johnson and Marvin Harrison have that attitude in abundance.

You are absolutely right. Chris needed a mentor when he first came into the league.
I hope that Hagan does not take after him.

 

[Dtronic]

You know what is sad.... its all the excuses. Besides all the ones listed in this thread there is one more.

"Chris Chambers didn't have big numbers becuase he was in a run first offense on college" ... please add this to the list. Draft nuts should remember this, yes the excuses were being made in college as well.

I remember that one. Wherever Chambers goes, excuses follow. He is NOT a #1.

 

[NorFlaFin]

You are absolutely right. Chris needed a mentor when he first came into the league.
I hope that Hagan does not take after him.

Absolutely, I firmly it was Cris Carter who mentored Randy from an athletic freak into the best WR I've seen.

The mentoring part is why I believe it's important to keep Marty Booker to groom a promising Hagan.

 

[flintsilver7]

Hey,

My name's Bill Barnwell - I'm the author of the piece that inspired this lengthy thread. Someone mentioned the thread to me and I checked it out and felt that it was only fair that I respond to some of the issues taken with the article. I apologize for digging up the old thread.

I'll assume you are who you say you are.

- For those people who attributed my piece to me being a life-long Patriots fan and clear homer/Dolphins hater, this is unfortunately not the case. I grew up in New York and I've been a Giants fan for life. I do appreciate the Patriots because of the way their team is run. but to call me a Patriots homer is far from the truth.

- A lot of the discussion about the article centered around my statement that Chris Chambers is the worst WR in football. Some people took it at face value and others didn't. Others misinterpreted it as me saying that Chris Chambers was <i>least talented</i> wide receiver in football, which is entirely different and clearly not the case. When I say that Chambers is the worst wide receiver in football, this has to do with both his talent <i>and</i>, much more importantly, his usage pattern. When you throw Chambers 153 passes, as the Dolphins did in 2006, no other WR drains his team's offensive performance more than Chambers. Are there wide receivers in the league I would take Chris Chambers before if I was building a team? Of course. That being said, there are about 50 wide receivers I'd grab first for a variety of different reasons.

- The stat geek comments were amusing, mainly because the same people would then bring up different stats to defend their point. That's just silly. Bringing up Chambers' yards total from last year is entirely legitimate -- you should just also note that he was thrown the ball 166 times in order to gain that many yards.

In both of these paragraphs you seem to make one horribly incorrect assumption that fatally flaws your entire analysis. A ball thrown in a receiver's direction is not something the receiver can control. Let's make the following assumptions:

1) A quarterback will generally throw to an open receiver.
2) A quarterback who insists on throwing will generally throw to his primary receiver even if he is covered.
3) The primary receiver will generally have the best defenive player(s) assigned to him.

If we assume that Joey Harrington is not a complete idiot, then it stands to reason that one of the above holds true. If Chris Chambers was thrown to as many times as he was, then it's likely that he was able to get open. This is one of the critical things that a receiver can do, but having the ball get to him is another story.

Take the top 20 wide receivers according to yards from 2005. Chambers is 12th. Keep in mind that Chambers, this deep threat, ranks 15th amongst those receivers according to yards per catch -- below such famed speedsters as Jimmy Smith, Terry Glenn, and Marvin Harrison. OK. Now, take Chambers yards and divide them by the number of throws in his direction, to see how many yards Chambers averaged each time the ball was thrown in his direction.

You're still using a faulty assumption. You can read through the NFL's official play-by-play and say that "hey, Chris Chambers was thrown the ball this many times and he only got this many yards." Yards per attempt mean the most for one position - running backs. Even then, it is dependent on blocking, the defense, and even the type of running play. Quarterbacks and wide receivers are inextricably linked - a quarterback cannot succeed without receiver help and receivers cannot succeed without quarterback help. However, it is far more likely that a good quarterback will succeed without receivers than a good wide receiver will succeed without a quarterback.

Chambers is dead last at 6.73 yards per attempt. The top guys are the players you'd think of as deep threats: Plaxico Burress, Santana Moss (who was playing with Brooks Bollinger), Steve Smith, and Eddie Kennison all have over 10 yards per attempt. The guy in 19th, Derrick Mason, is closer to 6th than he is to Chambers at 20.

A receiver "yards per attempt" statistic is nothing short of meaningless when you use "times targeted" as "attempts." An ultimate measure of receiver attempts - imperfect but among the best we have - would be completions plus drops. This is a consensus opinion of the total number of catchable passes thrown to the receiver. Now, even then, you must consider that catchable passes are not even the same from one receiver to another. The absolute best thing a quarterback can do is hit his receiver in stride. In recent memory Chris Chambers has been hit in stride twice - both passes from Sage Rosenfels and both 70+ yard touchdowns. Hit a receiver in stride as a good quarterback can do and his yards per catch will improve.

I should mention again that simply because a ball is caught does not mean it was well thrown. A ball that does not hit the receiver in stride will negatively impact his statistics in almost all cases, and how much it affects them depends on how badly it is. A ball thrown too high, too low, too far ahead, or too far behind a receiver will cause him to dive, jump, slow down, backtrack, and so on - all of these will ultimately reduce his yardage. Of course, all of these also affect his total number of receptions.

For those people who said that I should just watch the games, well, not only do I watch the games but I know all of you do, too. Chambers makes wonderful catches at times...and other times, he slips on his routes, has balls go through his hands, have passes hit him in the chest, get overthrown, or not turn around in time. Stats don't give the whole picture, of course not -- but neither do highlights.

I watched both Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison drop well-thrown passes this past weekend. They were open and had to make minimal adjustments to the thrown ball. Hey, where do they rank on your DPAR list? My point here is that even the best players will make horrible mistakes (Peyton Manning threw a ball directly to Ty Law - twice - this weekend.)

- The other argument is that Chambers gets a lot of passes thrown in his direction that are poorly thrown because of the routes he runs and the quarterbacks he plays with. I attempted to dispel this in my article by pointing out similarly poor quarterbacks and the wide receivers they played with, who all caught a higher percentage of their passes than Chambers did. People brought up that DVOA and DPAR, while advanced metrics, can not totally separate WR play from QB play. That is certainly true and is why the numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. Of course, so should traditional metrics like yards and touchdowns, metrics which also have everything to do with the context a player plays in. What makes DPAR and DVOA better is that they adjust the context as much as possible so that all players on a much more level playing field when it comes to evaluation.

DPAR and DVOA are not perfect metrics and they can overvalue the second receiver on a team. For example, according to DPAR, the following relations hold true:

1) Wayne > Harrison
2) Houshmandzadeh > Johnson
3) Cotchery > Coles
4) Hackett > Jackson > Branch
5) Bruce > Holt
6) Holmes > Ward
7) Curry > Moss
8) Colston > Henderson > Horn
9) Battle > Bryant
10) Clayton > Mason
11) Booker > Welker > Chambers
12) Wade > Bennett
13) Jurevicius > Edwards
14) Jones > Williams > Wilford

Though some points may be arguable and the differences between them are negligible at times (one position for CIN and IND receivers, for example) it stands to reason that these statistics are not perfect. One cannot seriously make the case that they would rather have Arnaz Battle than Antonio Bryant or D.J. Hackett rather than Darrell Jackson. Yet, that's what the statistics suggest. This occurs with enough frequency to warrant skepticism.

The argument, then, are that every quarterback Chambers has ever played with, despite throwing him the ball as much as any other wide receiver in football, have failed to accurately harness the talents of #81.

Yes, McMichael has been underutilized as well. I thought this was about Chambers, though.

Furthermore, that argument presupposes that there's no other wide receiver in the league that also has to deal with skipped passes or a mediocre offensive line (which, actually, has been pretty competent the last two seasons according to our metrics for offensive line play).

If Chambers had one poor year according to DVOA, or two years where he only caught 50% of the passes thrown to him, I could understand people making an argument that he had a fluke season.

Offensive line play has been above average in Miami for two seasons on the whole. In one season (inarguably, 2005 was better for the offensive line than was 2006), he was a Pro Bowler, in another, he was "the worst WR in the league." However, it is generally considered here that offensive lines do not significantly impact the wide receivers. That said, when you mention skipped passes, you fail to differentiate between a good quarterback and an awful one. All receivers have to deal with poorly thrown passes. However, the DEGREE to which receivers have to deal with these things depends on the quarterback. You cannot seriously be suggesting that Joey Harrington throws the same number - even roughly the same number - of bad passes as does Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer.

But he's been consistently poor throughout, basically, his entire career. This year, he was so bad that a unprecented improvement in his statistics would be needed to turn his career back to mediocrity.

With that in mind, I can't place the blame solely on every quarterback and offensive coordinator Chambers has had.

You can place most of the blame on them. Jay Fiedler, the only Dolphins quarterback in recent memory with a QB rating above 80 - approximately average - (save for several 2005 games where Sage Rosenfels stepped in - oh, and by the way, Chambers was outstanding), had the job of "not losing the game." He ran the Wannstedt offense which consisted mainly of handing the ball to Ricky Williams, and, as a last resort, passing for a first down. Fiedler was not an outstanding quarterback by any means but he was efficient - at least for two years. The Dolphins did not have a "big play" passing offense by any means.

I can't believe that this is not obvious to somebody who works this closely with statistics. The quarterback has, by far, the most impact on his own statistics as well as the most impact on receiver statistics. Look at Marvin Harrison's substantial increase - in Peyton Manning's first year, he had less than 1000 yards and less than 10 touchdowns; in the eight seasons since then, he has had at least 1100 yards and at least 10 touchdowns. Odd, no? Houshmandzadeh was an unknown of no real value until Carson Palmer came along. Roy Williams suddenly had a massive increase in yards and receptions in 2006 - all from the marginal but not insignificant addition of Jon Kitna.

Just remember - don't overlook the quarterback. It's pretty obvious.

 

[adamprez2003]

I'll assume you are who you say you are.



In both of these paragraphs you seem to make one horribly incorrect assumption that fatally flaws your entire analysis. A ball thrown in a receiver's direction is not something the receiver can control. Let's make the following assumptions:

1) A quarterback will generally throw to an open receiver.
2) A quarterback who insists on throwing will generally throw to his primary receiver even if he is covered.
3) The primary receiver will generally have the best defenive player(s) assigned to him.

If we assume that Joey Harrington is not a complete idiot, then it stands to reason that one of the above holds true. If Chris Chambers was thrown to as many times as he was, then it's likely that he was able to get open. This is one of the critical things that a receiver can do, but having the ball get to him is another story.



You're still using a faulty assumption. You can read through the NFL's official play-by-play and say that "hey, Chris Chambers was thrown the ball this many times and he only got this many yards." Yards per attempt mean the most for one position - running backs. Even then, it is dependent on blocking, the defense, and even the type of running play. Quarterbacks and wide receivers are inextricably linked - a quarterback cannot succeed without receiver help and receivers cannot succeed without quarterback help. However, it is far more likely that a good quarterback will succeed without receivers than a good wide receiver will succeed without a quarterback.

Chambers is dead last at 6.73 yards per attempt. The top guys are the players you'd think of as deep threats: Plaxico Burress, Santana Moss (who was playing with Brooks Bollinger), Steve Smith, and Eddie Kennison all have over 10 yards per attempt. The guy in 19th, Derrick Mason, is closer to 6th than he is to Chambers at 20.

A receiver "yards per attempt" statistic is nothing short of meaningless when you use "times targeted" as "attempts." An ultimate measure of receiver attempts - imperfect but among the best we have - would be completions plus drops. This is a consensus opinion of the total number of catchable passes thrown to the receiver. Now, even then, you must consider that catchable passes are not even the same from one receiver to another. The absolute best thing a quarterback can do is hit his receiver in stride. In recent memory Chris Chambers has been hit in stride twice - both passes from Sage Rosenfels and both 70+ yard touchdowns. Hit a receiver in stride as a good quarterback can do and his yards per catch will improve.

I should mention again that simply because a ball is caught does not mean it was well thrown. A ball that does not hit the receiver in stride will negatively impact his statistics in almost all cases, and how much it affects them depends on how badly it is. A ball thrown too high, too low, too far ahead, or too far behind a receiver will cause him to dive, jump, slow down, backtrack, and so on - all of these will ultimately reduce his yardage. Of course, all of these also affect his total number of receptions.



I watched both Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison drop well-thrown passes this past weekend. They were open and had to make minimal adjustments to the thrown ball. Hey, where do they rank on your DPAR list? My point here is that even the best players will make horrible mistakes (Peyton Manning threw a ball directly to Ty Law - twice - this weekend.)



DPAR and DVOA are not perfect metrics and they can overvalue the second receiver on a team. For example, according to DPAR, the following relations hold true:

1) Wayne > Harrison
2) Houshmandzadeh > Johnson
3) Cotchery > Coles
4) Hackett > Jackson > Branch
5) Bruce > Holt
6) Holmes > Ward
7) Curry > Moss
8) Colston > Henderson > Horn
9) Battle > Bryant
10) Clayton > Mason
11) Booker > Welker > Chambers
12) Wade > Bennett
13) Jurevicius > Edwards
14) Jones > Williams > Wilford

Though some points may be arguable and the differences between them are negligible at times (one position for CIN and IND receivers, for example) it stands to reason that these statistics are not perfect. One cannot seriously make the case that they would rather have Arnaz Battle than Antonio Bryant or D.J. Hackett rather than Darrell Jackson. Yet, that's what the statistics suggest. This occurs with enough frequency to warrant skepticism.



Yes, McMichael has been underutilized as well. I thought this was about Chambers, though.



Offensive line play has been above average in Miami for two seasons on the whole. In one season (inarguably, 2005 was better for the offensive line than was 2006), he was a Pro Bowler, in another, he was "the worst WR in the league." However, it is generally considered here that offensive lines do not significantly impact the wide receivers. That said, when you mention skipped passes, you fail to differentiate between a good quarterback and an awful one. All receivers have to deal with poorly thrown passes. However, the DEGREE to which receivers have to deal with these things depends on the quarterback. You cannot seriously be suggesting that Joey Harrington throws the same number - even roughly the same number - of bad passes as does Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer.



You can place most of the blame on them. Jay Fiedler, the only Dolphins quarterback in recent memory with a QB rating above 80 - approximately average - (save for several 2005 games where Sage Rosenfels stepped in - oh, and by the way, Chambers was outstanding), had the job of "not losing the game." He ran the Wannstedt offense which consisted mainly of handing the ball to Ricky Williams, and, as a last resort, passing for a first down. Fiedler was not an outstanding quarterback by any means but he was efficient - at least for two years. The Dolphins did not have a "big play" passing offense by any means.

I can't believe that this is not obvious to somebody who works this closely with statistics. The quarterback has, by far, the most impact on his own statistics as well as the most impact on receiver statistics. Look at Marvin Harrison's substantial increase - in Peyton Manning's first year, he had less than 1000 yards and less than 10 touchdowns; in the eight seasons since then, he has had at least 1100 yards and at least 10 touchdowns. Odd, no? Houshmandzadeh was an unknown of no real value until Carson Palmer came along. Roy Williams suddenly had a massive increase in yards and receptions in 2006 - all from the marginal but not insignificant addition of Jon Kitna.

Just remember - don't overlook the quarterback. It's pretty obvious.

Everything you say is pretty spot on however putting the stats aside and letting your eyes be the judge it was obvious to me at least that Chambers played below his abilities this year. He dropped a ton of easily catchable passes that unfortunately were drive killers. Using your eyes and not stats, we all know that the charge that he makes the difficult catches and drops the easy ones is a valid charge to make against him. This season also proved that he had a really difficult time getting seperation. Now I have come to the conclusion that most of that is due to the unimaginative routes called for him to run but there were plenty of times I saw him sleepwalk through his routes. Chambers gave up on this season early. It was clear he wasnt giving his all this year. Perhaps it was Sabanor Mularkey or Harrington or Lemon or Culpepper but whatever the reason 100% wasnt given. The stats may or may not reveal that but I think most fans who watched with their own eyes would agree

 

[billbarnwell]

1) A quarterback will generally throw to an open receiver.
2) A quarterback who insists on throwing will generally throw to his primary receiver even if he is covered.
3) The primary receiver will generally have the best defenive player(s) assigned to him.

1 is true.
2 is not necessarily true and shouldn't be. That situation usually results in a checkdown.
3 is not at all true. Most teams line up a CB on either side of the field and they guard whoever shows up across from them.

However, it is far more likely that a good quarterback will succeed without receivers than a good wide receiver will succeed without a quarterback.

No reason to think that. Furthermore, every "good" wide receiver has put up numbers that blow Chambers out of the water.

The absolute best thing a quarterback can do is hit his receiver in stride. In recent memory Chris Chambers has been hit in stride twice - both passes from Sage Rosenfels and both 70+ yard touchdowns. Hit a receiver in stride as a good quarterback can do and his yards per catch will improve.

That's just silly, my friend. What about the second Jets game where Harrington threw Chambers a deep ball that went right through his hands in stride? Was that because the ball was too wet and Chambers was afraid of it? Come on. That's just the most recent example I can think of.

I should mention again that simply because a ball is caught does not mean it was well thrown.

And the opposite is true. Just because a ball isn't caught does not mean that it was poorly thrown.

I watched both Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison drop well-thrown passes this past weekend. They were open and had to make minimal adjustments to the thrown ball. Hey, where do they rank on your DPAR list? My point here is that even the best players will make horrible mistakes

They're really good! Why? Because they catch 63% and 64% of the passes thrown to them, and they run for more yards when they make these catches. If they caught 39% of the passes thrown in their direction, they wouldn't be as good.

Though some points may be arguable and the differences between them are negligible at times (one position for CIN and IND receivers, for example) it stands to reason that these statistics are not perfect. One cannot seriously make the case that they would rather have Arnaz Battle than Antonio Bryant or D.J. Hackett rather than Darrell Jackson. Yet, that's what the statistics suggest. This occurs with enough frequency to warrant skepticism.

It's fine to be skeptical, but it's also fine to be skeptical in the other direction and point out that maybe D.J. Hackett is, in fact, better than Darrell Jackson.

Yes, McMichael has been underutilized as well. I thought this was about Chambers, though.

BURN.

However, it is generally considered here that offensive lines do not significantly impact the wide receivers. That said, when you mention skipped passes, you fail to differentiate between a good quarterback and an awful one. All receivers have to deal with poorly thrown passes. However, the DEGREE to which receivers have to deal with these things depends on the quarterback. You cannot seriously be suggesting that Joey Harrington throws the same number - even roughly the same number - of bad passes as does Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer.

Of course they throw fewer.

Here's the thing, though. The difference in poorly-thrown passes between Harrington and Manning/Palmer does not even come close to reaching the difference between Chambers' level of performance and Marvin Harrison or Chad Jackson's.

The other thing? This has happened for every Dolphin quarterback. Again, you can point to Chambers "good" year last year, but he wasn't very good. Yes, he was selected to the Pro Bowl. Why? Because he had 166 throws in his direction! If he'd been thrown the ball 85 times, he would have had 40 catches and 700 yards and never sniffed the Pro Bowl.

Yes, he did score 11 touchdowns, and those are important. But does he have a "nose for the end zone" or is it just random? Did he lose that nose for the end zone this year? Did he forget it at home two years ago?

I can't believe that this is not obvious to somebody who works this closely with statistics. The quarterback has, by far, the most impact on his own statistics as well as the most impact on receiver statistics. Look at Marvin Harrison's substantial increase - in Peyton Manning's first year, he had less than 1000 yards and less than 10 touchdowns; in the eight seasons since then, he has had at least 1100 yards and at least 10 touchdowns. Odd, no? Houshmandzadeh was an unknown of no real value until Carson Palmer came along. Roy Williams suddenly had a massive increase in yards and receptions in 2006 - all from the marginal but not insignificant addition of Jon Kitna.

You're attributing quarterback performance to this when the likely reason is wide receiver aging patterns. Compare their performance to wide receivers who played with the same quarterback for the first five years of their career and you'll likely find little to no difference unless you hand-pick the guys, as you did above.

 

[flintsilver7]

Everything you say is pretty spot on however putting the stats aside and letting your eyes be the judge it was obvious to me at least that Chambers played below his abilities this year. He dropped a ton of easily catchable passes that unfortunately were drive killers. Using your eyes and not stats, we all know that the charge that he makes the difficult catches and drops the easy ones is a valid charge to make against him. This season also proved that he had a really difficult time getting seperation. Now I have come to the conclusion that most of that is due to the unimaginative routes called for him to run but there were plenty of times I saw him sleepwalk through his routes. Chambers gave up on this season early. It was clear he wasnt giving his all this year. Perhaps it was Sabanor Mularkey or Harrington or Lemon or Culpepper but whatever the reason 100% wasnt given. The stats may or may not reveal that but I think most fans who watched with their own eyes would agree

I will say without question that Chris Chambers had a pretty bad season, but calling him the worst wide receiver in the league is irresponsible.