Best For The Long Haul? It Might Be Alex Smith | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Best For The Long Haul? It Might Be Alex Smith

We have no clue, but Nick Saban knows. He knows what each player is capable of mentally and physically. If I could sit down with Alex Smith and somehow be pretty confident that he will be able to progress in the areas I talked about at the top, I would take him in an instant.

Also, in regards to the two backs, who is to say they are sure things either. Brown, although I like him very much, may struggle getting used to full time duty, or even start pulling hamstrings again. We don't know.

Benson is far from a sure thing too. He is an average athlete at the running back position. yes, he has great vision and outstanding patience, but, will that be enough to overcome his physical drawbacks?

Saban is doing it right. He is meeting all of these guys and working them out to get his own feel for them. I trust whatever decision he makes. I just want people to know Smith may be on the front burner.
 
Ghetti13 said:
First of all, I have watched alot of Alex Smith. He is very athletic and appears to possess great decision making skils. However, he needs to add some weight to improve his arm. He also needs to work on some of the finer parts of the quarterback position. The bottom line is that the aspects of his game in which he needs work are all correctable. He will need to hold a clip board for 1 to 2 years before he is ready to really make an impact, however, when he is ready we may have a real gem on our hands.

Alex is 20 years old right now. He will turn 21 in May. That means that after two years of holding a clipboard, which is often the best way to develope a quarterback (McNair, McNabb, Pennington, T. Green, Bulger, Hasselbeck, etc, etc) he will be 23 years of age. As a comparison, at that same time Ronnie Brown will be a 26 year old tailback.

If Saban wants an almost sure thing impact player who can make a difference right away, that player is Ronnie Brown.

However, if he wants someone who may not play for a year or two but might be a staple for the next 13 years or so after that, the decision is simple.

In the words of Nick Saban, Alex Smith may have the "best value to the organization".

Although he didn't say much about anything in particular, when I was done reading the PC I felt as though he is really thinking about taking a QB. Not because of anything he said in specific, just the overall message I got from the whole thing.
 
Ghetti13 said:
You are making an assumption in your argument. That being that Smith, Brown and Edwards are graded equally. Now, for arguments sake I will indulge this. If that is the case, and they are all graded equally, then yes, I would take into account the impact players that may or may not be available later in the draft.

However, I would strongly argue that players possible availability later in the draft will have no effect on how he sets his board. And, if it does, then he is not the GM I thought he was.

We all make assumtions. I mean you are assuming that Smith may have better value because after 2 years on the bench, he could be be a staple for the next 13 years.

But I agree with you on the point that players possible availablity later in the draft should have absolutly NO impact on the draft board. They should be rated from scratch to begin with and then, if it comes down to a tie, you need to bring that thinking into the mix.
 
Brown (or Benson), a RB, would make the immediate impact, as ANY QB we take, be it 1st or 4th round, will be sitting for at least 2 years. So we spend the 1st rounder on the guy who will make the most impact, (RB) and then use later rounds to get a QB (2nd or 3rd)
 
You take the best player available. Otherwise, in five years you may have two positions to fill, the position where you passed on the better player for a guy who can contribute right away, and the position where you took the player who could contribute right away but for whatever reason, he may not have the longevity of the other guy.

Reaching is reaching. You take the player that has the best value to your organization whether that value will be enjoyed in five months and last for six years or will be enjoyed in two years and last for thirteen.

These are the decsions that are keeping Saban up at night. However, I have the utmost confidence that our coach will not "reach".
 
Except...

Agent51 said:
Brown (or Benson), a RB, would make the immediate impact, as ANY QB we take, be it 1st or 4th round, will be sitting for at least 2 years. So we spend the 1st rounder on the guy who will make the most impact, (RB) and then use later rounds to get a QB (2nd or 3rd)

That we keep hearing "long term" in conversations coming from Saban. That means he is not so much looking at immediate help, as long term building prospects. The average career lifespan of a QB is much longer than the average lifespan of a RB. Long term it may well be better to draft a QB now, let him grow, and then grap a RB later, either this year or next, for subsequent years productivity of both of them. If we have a RB now who only lasts a few years by the time a QB is ready (should that be the need) the RB will not be able to carry the load (on average). The coalesence of "long term" and the #2 pick in the draft seem to me to mitigate toward picking a QB.
 
RevRick said:
That we keep hearing "long term" in conversations coming from Saban. That means he is not so much looking at immediate help, as long term building prospects. The average career lifespan of a QB is much longer than the average lifespan of a RB. Long term it may well be better to draft a QB now, let him grow, and then grap a RB later, either this year or next, for subsequent years productivity of both of them. If we have a RB now who only lasts a few years by the time a QB is ready (should that be the need) the RB will not be able to carry the load (on average). The coalesence of "long term" and the #2 pick in the draft seem to me to mitigate toward picking a QB.

My plan IS thinking long term, because I think a 2nd or 3rd round QB can mature into a franchise QB almost as well as the obvious 2 choices. Lets use SD for this example. LT and Drew Bress, its been what, 2 years now, or 3 since they came in, and look, Drew Bress just got his rythm last season, and LT is still going strong, LT was 1st round running back, Bress was 2nd round QB. In temrs of "depth" in this draft I honestly think QBs are deeper than RBs, you've got the 3 obvious RB choices and 2 OB choices, then you move on to the other notables.
RBs we have Arrington, Fason, Shelton, Barber III, Moats, Morency, Harris, and Gore. Gore has knee problems, Harris and Morency are already 26 and 25 respectively, and Moats doesn't have anything to write home about, no exceptional speed, size, moves, power, just all average. That leaves 4 with starting potential, outside the top 3, and prolly only two that will make an impact.
At QB you have Charlie Frye, Jason Campbell, Andrew Walters, Adrian McPherson, Stefen LeFors, and Kyle Orton, ALL of which could develope into a QB of the future.
So given the "San Diego Scenerio" I say Benson (or Brown as the rest of you say) in round one and QB later, somewhere between 2 and 4. I REALLY Like LeFors AND think he will be around in round 4, which is an absolute steal
 
Stefon LeFors? Anyway. There is absolutely no guarantee that we will be able to land Frye, Campbell, Walter, McPherson or Orton. And, using a term from Nick Saban, they have more "imperfections" as far as diaminds go.

The track record for quarterbacks taken early AND given the time to acclimate mentally before they are thrown into the mix is actually very good. The reason many first round quarterbacks do not make it is because they are thrown into the fire too early and they burn out before they can mature. Generally coaches with little commitment from the owner make these type of mistakes. Saban will not have that hanging over his head. He will be allowed to let the quarterback develope at the proper rate.

In regards to the San Diego scenario. Tomlinson was the best player on the board when they picked at 5. It just happened that Brees was still sitting there at the top of the 2nd. It was no sure thing that he would be there. Same thing goes with the guys you named above. Except LeFors, don't worry, he will be on the board for awhile.

Lastly, I think there are a few backs outside of the top 3 with starting potential. Ciatrick Fason, Marion Barber, Ryan Moats, J.J. Arrington and Eric Shelton could all contribute and produce to a team as rookies. Obviously, they are not as highly rated, or as close to sure things as the big 3, but, this is not an exact science.

I guess my bottom line is that if Smith is in fact rated by the organization as having more upside than the backs, they must take him because you just never know how the rest of the draft will shake out.
 
Ghetti13 said:
Stefon LeFors? Anyway. There is absolutely no guarantee that we will be able to land Frye, Campbell, Walter, McPherson or Orton. And, using a term from Nick Saban, they have more "imperfections" as far as diaminds go.

The track record for quarterbacks taken early AND given the time to acclimate mentally before they are thrown into the mix is actually very good. The reason many first round quarterbacks do not make it is because they are thrown into the fire too early and they burn out before they can mature. Generally coaches with little commitment from the owner make these type of mistakes. Saban will not have that hanging over his head. He will be allowed to let the quarterback develope at the proper rate.

In regards to the San Diego scenario. Tomlinson was the best player on the board when they picked at 5. It just happened that Brees was still sitting there at the top of the 2nd. It was no sure thing that he would be there. Same thing goes with the guys you named above. Except LeFors, don't worry, he will be on the board for awhile.

Lastly, I think there are a few backs outside of the top 3 with starting potential. Ciatrick Fason, Marion Barber, Ryan Moats, J.J. Arrington and Eric Shelton could all contribute and produce to a team as rookies. Obviously, they are not as highly rated, or as close to sure things as the big 3, but, this is not an exact science.

I guess my bottom line is that if Smith is in fact rated by the organization as having more upside than the backs, they must take him because you just never know how the rest of the draft will shake out.

You make good points there (although you don't seem to like LeFors, haha). IF we take a QB at #2 I would want Arrington or Barber as our back. I think the most depends on if we get that round 2 pick, if we DO, then I think ONE of the other QBs like McPherson, Frye, Campbell, Walter, will be there at our 2nd round pick, in which case we can take a RB round one and have a "SD situation" work out where we get the good QB in round 2. If our next pick isn't til three, then QB might be the way to go in round one, although I REALLY want us to take one of those three RBs.
 
Here is another thing to consider. Backs tend to drop lower than there value dictates, where quarterbacks tend to get valued higher than they should. Because of that and the glut of teams who are not in the market for running backs I think we would be able to get an excellent compliment to Lamar Gordon at the very least in the third.

However, if Saban thinks Brown is the best player for this organization, then he better take him. I think Brown is the best player in the draft as far as immediate impact.
 
Agent51 said:
Brown (or Benson), a RB, would make the immediate impact, as ANY QB we take, be it 1st or 4th round, will be sitting for at least 2 years. So we spend the 1st rounder on the guy who will make the most impact, (RB) and then use later rounds to get a QB (2nd or 3rd)

The problem with that premise is that the odds of landing a starting quarterback outside of the first round is very small. First round quarterbacks throughout history have roughly a 30% rate of success. Once you get out of the first round, that success rate drops to about 3%.
 
KB21 said:
The problem with that premise is that the odds of landing a starting quarterback outside of the first round is very small. First round quarterbacks throughout history have roughly a 30% rate of success. Once you get out of the first round, that success rate drops to about 3%.

Yes its a risky proposition to draft a QB with a high pick but its a risk a team must make to get a franchise QB.You will not find franchise QBs in FA very often so the draft is the only realistic way of getting one.Taking a chance on getting one in a lower round is gambling with your future.There are exceptions of course but too few to mention.(Brady of course)
 
Ghetti13 said:
First of all, I have watched alot of Alex Smith. He is very athletic and appears to possess great decision making skils. However, he needs to add some weight to improve his arm. He also needs to work on some of the finer parts of the quarterback position. The bottom line is that the aspects of his game in which he needs work are all correctable. He will need to hold a clip board for 1 to 2 years before he is ready to really make an impact, however, when he is ready we may have a real gem on our hands.

Alex is 20 years old right now. He will turn 21 in May. That means that after two years of holding a clipboard, which is often the best way to develope a quarterback (McNair, McNabb, Pennington, T. Green, Bulger, Hasselbeck, etc, etc) he will be 23 years of age. As a comparison, at that same time Ronnie Brown will be a 26 year old tailback.

If Saban wants an almost sure thing impact player who can make a difference right away, that player is Ronnie Brown.

However, if he wants someone who may not play for a year or two but might be a staple for the next 13 years or so after that, the decision is simple.

In the words of Nick Saban, Alex Smith may have the "best value to the organization".

Are you aware he added 10 pounds since the season ended? He was 6'4" 217 at the combine, Marino was 6'4" 224.
 
RevRick said:
That we keep hearing "long term" in conversations coming from Saban. That means he is not so much looking at immediate help, as long term building prospects. The average career lifespan of a QB is much longer than the average lifespan of a RB. Long term it may well be better to draft a QB now, let him grow, and then grap a RB later, either this year or next, for subsequent years productivity of both of them. If we have a RB now who only lasts a few years by the time a QB is ready (should that be the need) the RB will not be able to carry the load (on average). The coalesence of "long term" and the #2 pick in the draft seem to me to mitigate toward picking a QB.

Your a bright man Rev, everytime I hear him say "long term value" it sounds like QB to me. It definately doesn't sound like a runner.
 
I am aware of the hard work Smith has put in and I find it very impressive. However, one's mechanics and god given arm strength can go a long ways towards the velocity a player will have on his throw. Smith is compact but he does not snap it off like many quarterbacks do.

No matter how much stronger Smith gets he will never have the elite arm strength that a guy like Marino had because of his mechanics. Danny really snapped it off like no man before or since.
 
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