Best For The Long Haul? It Might Be Alex Smith

[Aquanator B1000]

First of all, I have watched alot of Alex Smith. He is very athletic and appears to possess great decision making skils. However, he needs to add some weight to improve his arm. He also needs to work on some of the finer parts of the quarterback position. The bottom line is that the aspects of his game in which he needs work are all correctable. He will need to hold a clip board for 1 to 2 years before he is ready to really make an impact, however, when he is ready we may have a real gem on our hands.

Alex is 20 years old right now. He will turn 21 in May. That means that after two years of holding a clipboard, which is often the best way to develope a quarterback (McNair, McNabb, Pennington, T. Green, Bulger, Hasselbeck, etc, etc) he will be 23 years of age. As a comparison, at that same time Ronnie Brown will be a 26 year old tailback.

If Saban wants an almost sure thing impact player who can make a difference right away, that player is Ronnie Brown.

However, if he wants someone who may not play for a year or two but might be a staple for the next 13 years or so after that, the decision is simple.

In the words of Nick Saban, Alex Smith may have the "best value to the organization".

i want alex, but i don't think we're going to get him.

 

[Ghetti13]

I think Rodgers is better than Smith, so, if we don't get Smith because he goes one, I would be very happy with Rodgers.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Ghetti13, you have a superior understanding of draft theory

What you are discribing is the same thing as drafting for need, and intern, hurting your team. Lets say you are considering two players. A RB and a QB. It is my opinion that you take the player who you have graded higher, regardless of what MIGHT be available later in the round. That means if Ronnie Brown will have more value to your organization, you take him. If Alex Smith will have more value to your organization, you take him. The draft is too unpredictable to pass on a better player because you think you will be able to land a good player at the better player's position later in the draft.

That is the essence of reaching. That is the type of draft philosophy that keeps bad teams bad.

The vast majority of this "let's take moe here because we'll still be able to get harry later" stuff is simpleton fluff. For example, these individual mock drafts that people are posting are incredibly optimistic. They isolate players they like for the Dolphins and then have us taking them at a spot in which they'll most likely be long gone. Using that nonsense, sure let's pass on Alex Smith at #2 because we'll still be able to get him in the 3rd round. That's obviously an absurd exaggeration, but I see many team mocks with us "taking" players at least one or two rounds lower than they'll actually go.

Among 32 teams, the variables and the permutations are too vast to even pretend to forecast one or two rounds down the road. Again, it's predicting opinions. Let's use a court trial as an example. That requires a unanimous verdict. Yet pundits regularly project wrong, even on the brink of the verdict. In other words, they forecast ALL 12 OPINIONS INCORRECTLY. Yet we're sitting here pretending we know what this team thinks, or that GM thinks. It's pure blubber.

If we're at #2 that needs to be our focus. Period. Stuff like Ronnie Brown + David Greene > Alex Smith + Ryan Moats, or whomever, is high hilarity.

 

[boon]

Heres why Alex Smith wud fit with Dolphins

1.Graduated in econmics in 2 years to he smart so he can pick up offense in a breeze + they ran an offense similar to Linehans in Utah

2. He's Mobile he had 500 rushing yards and 5 tds he doesnt have Michael Vick speed but has the feet of Jeff Garcia he can still move unlike Feeley who has limited movement.

3. He's a good leader Fins have Jason and Zach on defense yet no one on offense; he was also elected to 2004 Utah Football Leadership Committee.

Tom Brady- good leader, rarely makes dumb turnovers, good size 6-4 225
Alex Smith-good leader, rarely makes dumb turnovers(look at 15-3 td/int ratio), good size 6-4 217
Thats why i think 49ers might take him even though Rodgers has better arm

I also suspect Ronnie Brown cud be a possibility since he had impressive combine and Saban played against him before but who knows:tongue:

 

[jlfin]

Yes its a risky proposition to draft a QB with a high pick but its a risk a team must make to get a franchise QB.You will not find franchise QBs in FA very often so the draft is the only realistic way of getting one.Taking a chance on getting one in a lower round is gambling with your future.There are exceptions of course but too few to mention.(Brady of course)

It's a risky proposition to draft any position with a high pick. Remember Tony Mandarich, Aundray Bruce, Keith McCants, Blair Thomas, Steve Emtman, Terrell Buckley, Mike Mamula, Sammy Smith, Tim Worley, Bob Whitfield, Trev Alberts etc? These are just some names off the top of my head.
Some of these guys were flat out busts and some were just decent NFL players. But none of them lived up to their pre-draft hype and became impact players.

 

[SuperDelfin]

Heres why Alex Smith wud fit with Dolphins

1.Graduated in econmics in 2 years to he smart so he can pick up offense in a breeze + they ran an offense similar to Linehans in Utah

2. He's Mobile he had 500 rushing yards and 5 tds he doesnt have Michael Vick speed but has the feet of Jeff Garcia he can still move unlike Feeley who has limited movement.

3. He's a good leader Fins have Jason and Zach on defense yet no one on offense; he was also elected to 2004 Utah Football Leadership Committee.

Tom Brady- good leader, rarely makes dumb turnovers, good size 6-4 225
Alex Smith-good leader, rarely makes dumb turnovers(look at 15-3 td/int ratio), good size 6-4 217
Thats why i think 49ers might take him even though Rodgers has better arm

I also suspect Ronnie Brown cud be a possibility since he had impressive combine and Saban played against him before but who knows:tongue:

The only problem with Alex Smith I have is that he worked from the shotgun most of the time and many scouts said he needs a lot of work under center. Whatever happens I support Sabans decsion.

 

[utfinfan]

Your post title puts it perfectly. Drafting Smith MIGHT be the best thing to do. There are just too many ifs involved. In order to draft a project with the second pick of the draft and invest the future of the franchise in him you better know for sure that he will pan out. Saban would be putting his job on the line as well.

Its just so much easier to draft a running back that performs on the next level. Physically we know that Ronnie Brown or Benson can perform....both may turn out to be more atheletes than football players but they will give you something. With Smith you just have no clue.

How are there questions about Smith, yet none for Brown Benson, or Williams? I think that a more accurate statment would be that there are questions about everyone in the draft. For example, lets use the players that you mentioned, Brown/Williams-some may say that they could not start or keep the other off the field are they good enough? What about Brown's age? Benson has questions about his past. Is he another RW? I guess what I am saying is that nobody really knows (including Saban and staff). Even those who look like locks to be stars fall, there is a long list-Blair Thomas, Kijana Carter, Yatil Green. . .

We will not really know for a few years how things will go for this draft class and by that time another draft will be in discussion.

 

[Bottle Nose]

I just want to thank all the posters on this thread. This is the best thread I have read in a while. I am humbled by your knowledge.