Biggest First Round Risk

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Last year I posted that Jason Allen was the biggest first round risk. Not based on talent, but his injury. I was initially disappointed that Miami drafted him, but hope he really gets a chance to prove his worth this season.

This year, I feel the biggest risk is Ted Ginn Jr. Again, I like his talent but he is such a project as a wide receiver. The further he drops, the less risky he becomes. But as a potential top 10 I feel Ginn is the riskiest pick.

Who do you feel is the riskiest pick of the potential first rounders?

 

[DeFINSeWins]

ted ginn.
anderson, adams, quinn, brown, branch, okoye are all fine in my book

 

[VT Dolphan]

I think that honor would have to go to Ted Ginn. He needs to polish his game a lot before he can make much of an impact. Other risks in my opinion: Okoye (age & undersized), Branch (unmotivated at times), Russell (overhyped, likely huge pay check), Anderson (one year wonder?). Those are just a few that I could think of, obviously Peterson is always hurt and could be added to that as well. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have Branch, Russell or Anderson if they were to fall to us, but I think there is some risk involved.

Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas and Gaines Adams are the safest picks in my opinion. And I think that Brady Quinn is relatively safe as far as quarterbacks are concerned considering the positions high bust rate.

 

[RoninFin4]

JaMarcus Russell, Ted Ginn, and possibly Adrian Peterson only b/c of his injury history.

 

[taylormvp99]

Ginn definitely. He's a great returner but he was never a great reciever in college. If you're a top 10 pick, your best strength shouldn't be kick returning. He's a project.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

JaMarcus Russell, Ted Ginn, and possibly Adrian Peterson only b/c of his injury history.

JaMarcus Russell could be in a terrible position as well. Right now Oakland is like Cincinnati was for many years -- a coach and quarterback killer. That would be a real tough situation for a guy that still needs to polish his game and would likely have to contribute almost right away. Of course, that's assuming the Raiders take him. He might end up going to a great qb coach and a team that is willing to be patient with him.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Ginn definitely. He's a great returner but he was never a great reciever in college. If you're a top 10 pick, your best strength shouldn't be kick returning. He's a project.

Totally agree and am a little concerned that Miami might take him. The Dolphins need his kind of speed, but I hope they don't reach.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

I think that honor would have to go to Ted Ginn. He needs to polish his game a lot before he can make much of an impact. Other risks in my opinion: Okoye (age & undersized), Branch (unmotivated at times), Russell (overhyped, likely huge pay check), Anderson (one year wonder?). Those are just a few that I could think of, obviously Peterson is always hurt and could be added to that as well. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have Branch, Russell or Anderson if they were to fall to us, but I think there is some risk involved.

Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas and Gaines Adams are the safest picks in my opinion. And I think that Brady Quinn is relatively safe as far as quarterbacks are concerned considering the positions high bust rate.

I agree on your safest picks. I think Brady Quinn will be really solid and like the Phil Simms comparisons best for him. With qb's so much depends on what team takes them, but Quinn could come in and contribute right away for a lot of teams.

 

[ottie35]

I agree with Ginn, but would like to throw out Michael Bush...whom is a first round prospect, but that injury is something that could make or break him. Talent wise, i feel he is better than Lynch, but again, that injury......

 

[gator_sensation]

I say the biggest risk is at the QB position. Failure at the QB position can set your franchise back many years. Look at the Dolphins for example.

 

[Dolfan4life34]

I would have to agree and say ginn is the biggest risk but he also could be on of the biggest rewards down the line. His speed is tremendous and he could develop into a game changer like steve smith but he just isnt big enough right now. I am not real sure who i want us to draft at this point but i think the combine will definatly make it easier to decide so ill give my oppinion then. Right now i tyhink the best players that could be dere at our pick are landry, nelson, gaines adams and quinn

 

[CCMiamiDolphins]

"Now The Sporting News is quoting scouts who say "He's (Quinn) the biggest fraud in the draft" and "should be a third- or fourth-round pick". They add their final insult by calling him the next Joey Harrington."


Uhhhh 2 Joey Harringtons on the team?

 

[umpalu]

JaMarcus Russell, Ted Ginn, and possibly Adrian Peterson only b/c of his injury history.

yeah that, but add hall to the list as well depending on where he is drafted

 

[ChambersWI]

"Now The Sporting News is quoting scouts who say "He's (Quinn) the biggest fraud in the draft" and "should be a third- or fourth-round pick". They add their final insult by calling him the next Joey Harrington."


Uhhhh 2 Joey Harringtons on the team?

Most scouts will have a lot of negative things to say about a player that was hyped up as a top 3 pick all season (ie Matt Leinart last year). What I like about Quinn is he's a lot more athletic than people give him credit for, and he's a good leader. This year however, his O-Line was a turnstyle against the best teams ND pkayed, and his WRs were not overly physical and got pushed around (even Szmardjia got beat up against Michigan,USC, and LSU).

As for biggest risks...

Ted Ginn-As I've said all year if we trade back he's a decent pick, but top 10 is too risky for a guy whose best asset is returning and trick plays. I comared him to Troy Williamson for awhile due to the similar speed and where they were taken, but Devery Henderson is a better comparison (great speed, sub par route running, mediocre hands opposed to Williamson's no hands).

Amobi Okoye-I like Okoye but at 19,and being under 300 lbs, he'd be a huge risk for our team. If a team like Buffalo,St. Louis, or Denver drafted him not so much.

Jamaal Anderson-Great prospect, but really raw. Just think of it this way Mario Williams was considered a great prospect but extremely raw, Anderson is less polished than Williams is.

JaMarcus Russell- Again, I like the guy but he's unpolished and will get eaten alive if he doesn't produce right away.

those are the top guys. There are a lot of other guys in the mid/late first area that I chose not to include simply because they're not first round locks by any means

 

[EndZone13]

Amobi Okoye-I like Okoye but at 19,and being under 300 lbs, he'd be a huge risk for our team. If a team like Buffalo,St. Louis, or Denver drafted him not so much.

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I think quite the opposite. JT came here at 270, and is often at 245-250lbs by the mid season. He gets to the QB all the time. Okoye hasn't finished his growth pattern at 19, and if you watched the senior bowl, at 287 the went by two defenders and ran the QB down before he got past line of scrimmage.
He is a prodigy, a genius, and is only gonna get much better and bigger by the time he gets to age 22. He will be faster and dominate offensive lines across the entire NFL for 12 more years, at which he will only be 31.If Miami could trade back, pick up a pick and get him a couple of slots later, our defensive line transition to youth would be set and complete for years. remember this kid is playing on natural talent, cause he has only played about 5-6 yrs, and did that at an extremely young age. He also has a psych degree in only 3.5 yrs that most people take 5 yrs to get. This kid is a young Lawrence Taylor coming out of UNC who was only 230lbs then. Look at what he developed into. Don't let him get away. He has speed to play inside or out and be damaging. If JT and Capers school this kid, he would be unstoppable.