Break down the playoff chances?

[dabeastdabone]

It's pretty clear Miami has to win the remaining games to have it's most realistic chance to make the playoffs. Assuming they win out should it be like below...

I'm not sure how the division will be decided so correct me if I'm wrong.

Miami beats out Jets (in a tie break) due to head to head even if the Jets Win out also.

New England and Miami have one win and one loss against each other so that's a wash. I believe the next factor in the tie break is division record. Miami is done in the division and hs two losses. New England has 2 losses as well and has to play the Bills one more time. If the Patriots win that game the next factor in a tie break is conference record. New England has (in addition to Buffalo) two other games vs. AFC teams, week 16 against the Jags in NE and week 17 at Houston.

I like the game in Houston because Houston is a team battling for the playoffs and that could factor in.

I still look at it as a long shot because Miami has been to inconsistent for me to believe they will go undefeated. i think NE will get another loss.

I don't know additional tie break factors. I do not know what happens if Miami wins out and NE losses against NFC Panthers and win the AFC games. I guess though the Dolphins have a shot at the wildcard if they win out.

 

[Lilseb93]

With the way the AFC is shaping up, 9-7 could get us in as well. Let's see how the Jags, Texans, Ravens, and Steelers do in the next 4 games.

 

[zackmandude63]

With the way the AFC is shaping up, 9-7 could get us in as well. Let's see how the Jags, Texans, Ravens, and Steelers do in the next 4 games.

hopefully we take care of one of those games for jax, texans, and pitt!!!

 

[MiZFiT]

hopefully the ravens will lose tomorrow against GB and drop to 6-6. that puts us one game out of wildcard.

 

[JazzDolphins]

Here are the tiebreaking procedures:

sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?page=tiebreakers

It can get complicated.

Sorry, it won't let me post a link since I have less than 20 posts. Copy and paste it.

 

[Lilseb93]

We own the tie-breakers over most of those teams. As long as we win, we're going to the playoffs.

 

[phins_4_ever]

Honestly, with so many teams out there still in the mix I wouldn't worry about tie breaking procedures.

To win the division New England has to - at least -lose one more game.
To have a shot at a wild card these teams have to lose at least one game: Jacksonville, Baltimore

I took Denver currently out of the equation who is currently holding the first wild card spot.

Bottomline, at these point every game for us is a must-win game plus other teams have to drop a game here and there.

 

[NYCphan]

Assuming Miami wins out and finishes 10-6...

Division: If the Pats lose once more, we win the tiebreak unless their loss is to Carolina. If they lose to Carolina, then our tiebreak would go all the way to "strength of victory" and I think we'd lose (though I'm not certain, because it takes some work to calculate strength of victory, and it's not final until the end of the season).

Wildcard: Even at 10-6, we'd need help. As of right now, Denver and San Diego both have fewer than six losses, so whoever's #2 in that division could finish ahead of us for one wildcard. Baltimore is 6-5 and could obviously also finish with fewer losses than us. So that's potentially both wildcards.

If Baltimore loses tomorrow to Green Bay, I don't think it puts us back in control of our fate quite yet -- but it certainly would help us.

A 9-7 wildcard is still complicated to try to figure out. Personally, I think we'll probably need 10-6 to get in.

 

[utahphinsfan]

Had the phins beat the Colts, Chargers, or Bills (last week) imagine how interesting the division and conference races would be?

 

[MiamiDolfan85]

Well....Pittsburgh doesnt look like a playoff team,and w/ their schedule,they probably wont make it.Now,the only other WildCard team in our way is JAX,and we have them next,then HOU and TEN.So,basically,we have to be all three to ahve a chance.TEN and HOU are basically out,as of now,so its really b/w us,PIT,JAX and NYJ...maybe.And remember,theres two WildCard spots,so we definately have a shot.

We still,very much,control our own destiny,and w/in 1 game of the division lead,so I would say the chance of us getting into the playoffs is a about %48,mainly because our schedule is pretty favorable.

I'll tell you what,though,we can take JAX,TEN and HOU.Henne's just gotta play the way he played today.

 

[Nublar7]

All Miami has to do is take care of their own business. It is good news that their last four games are all against AFC teams fighting for a wildcard spot. I don't believe we control our own destiny at this point in time, but if they win out and go 10-6, I do believe they are in. Even as mentioned in this post, a 9-7 record could be a wildcard team this year, however we probably would be on the losing end of any tiebreaker.