Always Next Year
Starter
While this is a slow time of the year in terms of NFL news, I think it is a great time to take a look at your team and try to piece together what type of team you will have for the coming season. Most, if not all, of the team's FA activity is done, the draft picks are coming into the fold and depth charts are starting to come together. We've also had some mini-camps and some OTAs to get a look at our new players and our new coaching staff. For the most part, the players we have now will shape the team we take into the season. With that said, I like to break the team down by position group(including coaching) and compare what we will have on this year's team to what we had last year. I break the team down into ten groups and give what I feel the current status of that group is and how it has changed from last season. At the end I take a total of the scores and use that to predict how this year's team will do. I do this for my own amusment every year, although this is the first time I have posted it. I'd like to get your thoughts on how you would rate the team and what differences you have from my ratings.
Offensive coaching ---- This has to be noted as one of the biggest, if not the biggest, upgrade to this team in the offseason. Remember how Scott Linehan had our offense rolling during the second half of the 2005 season? We have a chance to be that type of offense again once Cam gets things set up they way he wants, we might be even better. It will likely take the offense a few games to come together and start playing consistantly; once that happens, when combined with our defense, we will have a chance to win every week. I'm not saying that we WILL win every week, I'm just saying that we will be able to compete with anyone on a week to week basis. While getting Cam as head coach/offensive coordinator is a great addition, the removal of coach "Duh"larkey has to be counted as addition by subtraction. (actually, addition by reassignment) STATUS: Strong CHANGE: Improved
Defensive coaching ---- Retaining Capers was a great move IMO. He provides us with a luxury we have in only a few other areas; continuity. Defense is the strength of our team, and having schematic consistency in that area gives us the best chance to be an effective team all around. I think with the addition of Joey Porter, Capers will be able to dig further into his bag of tricks and give the defense more opportunities to make big plays. Not sure how long we are going to be able to keep Capers from becoming a head coach somewhere, I'll be glad to keep him as long as we can. STATUS: Strong CHANGE: Same
Defensive line ---- I'm excited to see what Matt Roth can do this year, I think our d-line could use an infusion of youth and energy. Roth flashed serious potential in limited action last season, and managed to post some decent numbers. I'm glad we were able to get Traylor back this offseason, and I have been hearing a lot of good things from the coaches about Fred Evans (although I've heard he may be going to tackle from nose guard). All in all, we didn't lose too many guy at this position during the offseason, and we have a couple of young additions (Soliai, Rod Wright) that bear watching. STATUS: Average CHANGE: Same
Linebackers ---- Another HUGE upgrade for this group, as Joey Porter comes to town to provide the best pass rush we have seen opposite JT in a long time. Porter has something to prove after he was released from his former team, with them saying privately that he had lost a step. Porter will see far fewer double teams and have much less responsibility in this defense than he had as the leader of the Pitt defense, this should free him up to make more plays than he has in recent years. Having two guys on the outside who can both rush the passer and drop into coverage will allow us to disguise our defenses more effectively and should be able to create a lot of confusion for opposing offenses. Zack and JT are still playing at VERY high levels, and Crowder looks like he might be ready to blossom (although he looked like that last year too). This has to be one of the best LB units in the league. STATUS: Strong CHANGE: Improved
Secondary ---- Not much in the way of new faces for this group, nor did we lose anyone of much mention. The biggest change with our secondary from last year is that we should be getting more out of the guys that are already on our roster. Last year's first round pick, Jason Allen, has moved to play cornerback exclusively this year. This should help the young player by shortening his playbook and allowing him to use his athleticism more. As a holdout and late arrival last year, Allen will also benefit from the offseason camps and a full training camp. Another player that should be returning to the field this year is Travis Daniels. Daniels had a promising rookie campaign but was less effective most of last season due to injury. Daniels says he feels "100%" this year an is excited to get back to his old self. Will Allen returns as our best CB from last year, and Andre Goodman has had shoulder problems (again) this offseason but the team says he should be ready for the season. Another improvement to our secondary will be having Yeremiah Bell as a starter for a full season, once he got on the field last year he showed why he belonged there. I'd rather have J. Allen or Goodman as the fourth CB instead of guys like Michael Lehan or Eddie Jackson, so even though this is still an area of concern, it should be improved. STATUS: Weak CHANGE: Improved
Offensive line ---- Lots of new faces and lots of reshuffling of the remaining players along the oline. Last year's best lineman, Vernon Carey, was moved from right tackle to left tackle, while LJ Shelton has slid out from right guard to right tackle. Also in a new position is Rex Hadnot, who has moved from center to his more natural right guard position, the place he first became a starter as a pro. As far as moving these guys around I'm not sure what type of impact it will have on their play, but the coaches seem to think it is all for the best so we will have to wait until the pads come on to see how it works out. As far as additions go there have been many; the front office seems to favor quantity over quality along the oline and there are a lot of new guys fighting for a few roster spots. The FAs we brought in are guys more known as solid than spectacular, but we have already been hearing some good things from that group. From the draft the oline got it's highest draft pick devoted to the position(Satele) since we took Carey in the first round in 2004. Additionally, we drafted some second day guys and added some undrafted FA guys to add more competition and depth to the unit. Oline is the toughest position group to evaluate without the pads on, but the numbers alone should get us some better competition at a few positions. This unit may be improved, but it's too early to tell. STATUS: Weak CHANGE: Improved
RBs ---- This is a group that has added some interesting players. Cory Schlesenger(sp?) at FB will be a BIG improvement with the run blocking, Ronnie Brown will be much better because of it. A FB that knows how to block so well might be able to hide some of the warts on our oline, both in the running and passing game. We drafted Lorenzo Booker in the third round, he will add explosiveness and speed to the offense when he's on the field. Booker is a very agile runner with great burst and good top end speed, his receiving skills will also be utilized in the offense. Brown will have another year of experience, have a better blocking fullback, and have a more capable and explosive backup/third down back behind him. Things are looking good for this unit. STATUS: Strong CHANGE: Improved
WRs & TEs ---- The biggest difference from last year's group to this year's group is S-P-E-E-D!!! First round pick Ted Ginn Jr. will most likely not be a starter in the beginning of the season, but he will be worked into the offense in a number of ways, and his role should increase as the season rolls along. If Kelly Campbell ends up as the 5th WR, then we will have two guys on this year's team that are faster than any WR we had on the roster last year. The addition of Ginn, Campbell/Hakim and the possible emergence of last year's 3rd round pick Derek Hagan make this an interesting group to watch. It will also be interesting to see if Chris Chambers can flourish by having an offensive minded coach for the first time in his pro or collegiate career. The Phins lost last year's leading receiver, Wes Welker, via trade. So it will be interesting to see who steps up as the "main man" this year in the passing game. At TE the Phins made a surprising move by releasing Randy McMichael outright and signing former GB backup David Martin to replace him. Martin has had injury troubles, but is regarded as being a better receiver and is also a bit of a better runner than McMike, while not being as good of a blocker. Some big losses and some big additions, the addition of speed to this group should serve the team well in terms of opening up opposing defenses and giving a boost to our offense. Lots of upside with this group, but many questions for them as well. STATUS: Average CHANGE: Improved
QBs ---- With all of the changes that this team has made this offseason, this is the area that has gotten(and continues to get) the most attention. The Dolphins have added a veteran QB for the present in Trent Green, and they have drafted their QB of the future with the second round pick of John Beck. I think Green has to be considered an improvement to an injured Culpepper or a healthy Harrington, but he may be more dependant on an o-line that has been faulty in recent years. If Green stays healthy and upright he will give the Phins QB play at a level we have not seen in a very long time. I LOVE the Beck pick, I am one of the few people out there that was happy we did not draft Brady Quinn. In watching film of Beck I saw him do two things consistantly that no QB has done for us since Dan left: first is his ability to manipulate defenses (safeties and corners especially) with head movement, pump fakes, footwork, etc., and the other thing is his ability to anticipate plays and throw the ball well before his receivers get out of their final breaks. In the NFL, these two skills are ESSENTIAL and Beck seems to have an understanding of them both. After Green and Beck we have everyone's favorite 3rd stringer, Cleo Lemon. I'm not sure why everyone loves him so much, he looks like a fine player in the limited opportunities I have had to see him, but I've not seen anything special. STATUS: Average CHANGE: Improved
Special Teams ---- This position group has undergone more change than any other on the team. Last year's kicker? GONE! Last year's punter? GONE! Last year's kick\punt returner? GONE\GONE! Ted Ginn will add a level of speed and a home-run threat that the Dolphins have not had in a very long time, maybe ever. On a defensive team, getting every yard and every point out of your special teams is ESSENTIAL, Ginn will give us an added dimension in this area that will affect our team in a positive way. I like Feeley over Mare when it comes to FGs, but Mare is a much better kickoff guy and we have lost something in that respect. The biggest question mark for the special teams unit will be how 7th round pick Brandon Fields can handle the punt duties in replacing Donnie Jones, who went to STL as a restricted FA. Jones was one of the better punters in the league last year, so Fields has his work cut out for him. Another area of concern, one that goes mostly unnoticed(or maybe just unspoken), is the coverage teams and how we have lost our best kick cover guys this offseason(Bowens, Minor, Morris). I am trusting (and hoping) that the FO guys have some young special teams guys that are waiting to take over those rolls, if not we may have a problem with kick coverage this year. The addition of a gambreaker like Ginn and a more accurate kicker in Feeley should result in more points from this unit, our defense will smile. STATUS: Average CHANGE: Improved
Offensive coaching - STATUS: Strong CHANGE: Improved
Defensive coaching - STATUS: Strong CHANGE: Same
Defensive line - STATUS: Average CHANGE: Same
Linebackers - STATUS: Strong CHANGE: Improved
Secondary - STATUS: Weak CHANGE: Same
Offensive line - STATUS: Weak CHANGE: Improved
RBs - STATUS: Strong CHANGE: Improved
WRs & TEs - STATUS: Average CHANGE: Improved
QBs - STATUS: Average CHANGE: Improved
Special Teams - STATUS: Average CHANGE: Improved
IMO this team has improved in a lot of areas while not getting weaker in any, with the possible exception of the special teams areas I mentioned(punting, kick/punt coverage). The additions we have made this year, both draft and FA, really seem to "fit" in terms their ability and our team needs.
As much as I hate to say it(I don't want to jinx us), this looks like a double digit win team to me. Of course, a team with so many question marks might have a lot of those questions come up with the wrong answers and the Phins could end up being a double digit loss team for the second year in a row. However, this teams looks like it can win 10 or 11 games and contend for a playoff spot.
Prediction: 10-6, just miss playoffs.
Any thoughts from you guys?
Offensive coaching ---- This has to be noted as one of the biggest, if not the biggest, upgrade to this team in the offseason. Remember how Scott Linehan had our offense rolling during the second half of the 2005 season? We have a chance to be that type of offense again once Cam gets things set up they way he wants, we might be even better. It will likely take the offense a few games to come together and start playing consistantly; once that happens, when combined with our defense, we will have a chance to win every week. I'm not saying that we WILL win every week, I'm just saying that we will be able to compete with anyone on a week to week basis. While getting Cam as head coach/offensive coordinator is a great addition, the removal of coach "Duh"larkey has to be counted as addition by subtraction. (actually, addition by reassignment) STATUS: Strong CHANGE: Improved
Defensive coaching ---- Retaining Capers was a great move IMO. He provides us with a luxury we have in only a few other areas; continuity. Defense is the strength of our team, and having schematic consistency in that area gives us the best chance to be an effective team all around. I think with the addition of Joey Porter, Capers will be able to dig further into his bag of tricks and give the defense more opportunities to make big plays. Not sure how long we are going to be able to keep Capers from becoming a head coach somewhere, I'll be glad to keep him as long as we can. STATUS: Strong CHANGE: Same
Defensive line ---- I'm excited to see what Matt Roth can do this year, I think our d-line could use an infusion of youth and energy. Roth flashed serious potential in limited action last season, and managed to post some decent numbers. I'm glad we were able to get Traylor back this offseason, and I have been hearing a lot of good things from the coaches about Fred Evans (although I've heard he may be going to tackle from nose guard). All in all, we didn't lose too many guy at this position during the offseason, and we have a couple of young additions (Soliai, Rod Wright) that bear watching. STATUS: Average CHANGE: Same
Linebackers ---- Another HUGE upgrade for this group, as Joey Porter comes to town to provide the best pass rush we have seen opposite JT in a long time. Porter has something to prove after he was released from his former team, with them saying privately that he had lost a step. Porter will see far fewer double teams and have much less responsibility in this defense than he had as the leader of the Pitt defense, this should free him up to make more plays than he has in recent years. Having two guys on the outside who can both rush the passer and drop into coverage will allow us to disguise our defenses more effectively and should be able to create a lot of confusion for opposing offenses. Zack and JT are still playing at VERY high levels, and Crowder looks like he might be ready to blossom (although he looked like that last year too). This has to be one of the best LB units in the league. STATUS: Strong CHANGE: Improved
Secondary ---- Not much in the way of new faces for this group, nor did we lose anyone of much mention. The biggest change with our secondary from last year is that we should be getting more out of the guys that are already on our roster. Last year's first round pick, Jason Allen, has moved to play cornerback exclusively this year. This should help the young player by shortening his playbook and allowing him to use his athleticism more. As a holdout and late arrival last year, Allen will also benefit from the offseason camps and a full training camp. Another player that should be returning to the field this year is Travis Daniels. Daniels had a promising rookie campaign but was less effective most of last season due to injury. Daniels says he feels "100%" this year an is excited to get back to his old self. Will Allen returns as our best CB from last year, and Andre Goodman has had shoulder problems (again) this offseason but the team says he should be ready for the season. Another improvement to our secondary will be having Yeremiah Bell as a starter for a full season, once he got on the field last year he showed why he belonged there. I'd rather have J. Allen or Goodman as the fourth CB instead of guys like Michael Lehan or Eddie Jackson, so even though this is still an area of concern, it should be improved. STATUS: Weak CHANGE: Improved
Offensive line ---- Lots of new faces and lots of reshuffling of the remaining players along the oline. Last year's best lineman, Vernon Carey, was moved from right tackle to left tackle, while LJ Shelton has slid out from right guard to right tackle. Also in a new position is Rex Hadnot, who has moved from center to his more natural right guard position, the place he first became a starter as a pro. As far as moving these guys around I'm not sure what type of impact it will have on their play, but the coaches seem to think it is all for the best so we will have to wait until the pads come on to see how it works out. As far as additions go there have been many; the front office seems to favor quantity over quality along the oline and there are a lot of new guys fighting for a few roster spots. The FAs we brought in are guys more known as solid than spectacular, but we have already been hearing some good things from that group. From the draft the oline got it's highest draft pick devoted to the position(Satele) since we took Carey in the first round in 2004. Additionally, we drafted some second day guys and added some undrafted FA guys to add more competition and depth to the unit. Oline is the toughest position group to evaluate without the pads on, but the numbers alone should get us some better competition at a few positions. This unit may be improved, but it's too early to tell. STATUS: Weak CHANGE: Improved
RBs ---- This is a group that has added some interesting players. Cory Schlesenger(sp?) at FB will be a BIG improvement with the run blocking, Ronnie Brown will be much better because of it. A FB that knows how to block so well might be able to hide some of the warts on our oline, both in the running and passing game. We drafted Lorenzo Booker in the third round, he will add explosiveness and speed to the offense when he's on the field. Booker is a very agile runner with great burst and good top end speed, his receiving skills will also be utilized in the offense. Brown will have another year of experience, have a better blocking fullback, and have a more capable and explosive backup/third down back behind him. Things are looking good for this unit. STATUS: Strong CHANGE: Improved
WRs & TEs ---- The biggest difference from last year's group to this year's group is S-P-E-E-D!!! First round pick Ted Ginn Jr. will most likely not be a starter in the beginning of the season, but he will be worked into the offense in a number of ways, and his role should increase as the season rolls along. If Kelly Campbell ends up as the 5th WR, then we will have two guys on this year's team that are faster than any WR we had on the roster last year. The addition of Ginn, Campbell/Hakim and the possible emergence of last year's 3rd round pick Derek Hagan make this an interesting group to watch. It will also be interesting to see if Chris Chambers can flourish by having an offensive minded coach for the first time in his pro or collegiate career. The Phins lost last year's leading receiver, Wes Welker, via trade. So it will be interesting to see who steps up as the "main man" this year in the passing game. At TE the Phins made a surprising move by releasing Randy McMichael outright and signing former GB backup David Martin to replace him. Martin has had injury troubles, but is regarded as being a better receiver and is also a bit of a better runner than McMike, while not being as good of a blocker. Some big losses and some big additions, the addition of speed to this group should serve the team well in terms of opening up opposing defenses and giving a boost to our offense. Lots of upside with this group, but many questions for them as well. STATUS: Average CHANGE: Improved
QBs ---- With all of the changes that this team has made this offseason, this is the area that has gotten(and continues to get) the most attention. The Dolphins have added a veteran QB for the present in Trent Green, and they have drafted their QB of the future with the second round pick of John Beck. I think Green has to be considered an improvement to an injured Culpepper or a healthy Harrington, but he may be more dependant on an o-line that has been faulty in recent years. If Green stays healthy and upright he will give the Phins QB play at a level we have not seen in a very long time. I LOVE the Beck pick, I am one of the few people out there that was happy we did not draft Brady Quinn. In watching film of Beck I saw him do two things consistantly that no QB has done for us since Dan left: first is his ability to manipulate defenses (safeties and corners especially) with head movement, pump fakes, footwork, etc., and the other thing is his ability to anticipate plays and throw the ball well before his receivers get out of their final breaks. In the NFL, these two skills are ESSENTIAL and Beck seems to have an understanding of them both. After Green and Beck we have everyone's favorite 3rd stringer, Cleo Lemon. I'm not sure why everyone loves him so much, he looks like a fine player in the limited opportunities I have had to see him, but I've not seen anything special. STATUS: Average CHANGE: Improved
Special Teams ---- This position group has undergone more change than any other on the team. Last year's kicker? GONE! Last year's punter? GONE! Last year's kick\punt returner? GONE\GONE! Ted Ginn will add a level of speed and a home-run threat that the Dolphins have not had in a very long time, maybe ever. On a defensive team, getting every yard and every point out of your special teams is ESSENTIAL, Ginn will give us an added dimension in this area that will affect our team in a positive way. I like Feeley over Mare when it comes to FGs, but Mare is a much better kickoff guy and we have lost something in that respect. The biggest question mark for the special teams unit will be how 7th round pick Brandon Fields can handle the punt duties in replacing Donnie Jones, who went to STL as a restricted FA. Jones was one of the better punters in the league last year, so Fields has his work cut out for him. Another area of concern, one that goes mostly unnoticed(or maybe just unspoken), is the coverage teams and how we have lost our best kick cover guys this offseason(Bowens, Minor, Morris). I am trusting (and hoping) that the FO guys have some young special teams guys that are waiting to take over those rolls, if not we may have a problem with kick coverage this year. The addition of a gambreaker like Ginn and a more accurate kicker in Feeley should result in more points from this unit, our defense will smile. STATUS: Average CHANGE: Improved
Offensive coaching - STATUS: Strong CHANGE: Improved
Defensive coaching - STATUS: Strong CHANGE: Same
Defensive line - STATUS: Average CHANGE: Same
Linebackers - STATUS: Strong CHANGE: Improved
Secondary - STATUS: Weak CHANGE: Same
Offensive line - STATUS: Weak CHANGE: Improved
RBs - STATUS: Strong CHANGE: Improved
WRs & TEs - STATUS: Average CHANGE: Improved
QBs - STATUS: Average CHANGE: Improved
Special Teams - STATUS: Average CHANGE: Improved
IMO this team has improved in a lot of areas while not getting weaker in any, with the possible exception of the special teams areas I mentioned(punting, kick/punt coverage). The additions we have made this year, both draft and FA, really seem to "fit" in terms their ability and our team needs.
As much as I hate to say it(I don't want to jinx us), this looks like a double digit win team to me. Of course, a team with so many question marks might have a lot of those questions come up with the wrong answers and the Phins could end up being a double digit loss team for the second year in a row. However, this teams looks like it can win 10 or 11 games and contend for a playoff spot.
Prediction: 10-6, just miss playoffs.
Any thoughts from you guys?
