Thank you. Exactly correct. Three points for the home team is a passe reference that should have been overtaken a long time ago, along with the notion that pointspreads are simply designed to balance the action.
Somehow both retain staying power, due to overwhelming popularity of conventional wisdom.
Weeks from now and years from now both will be matter of factly supplied, no matter how outdated or flat out wrong. I do appreciate that threads like this now contain increasing number of counter corrective versions, such as yours.
* A pointspread is absolutely a prediction of the outcome. That's why money lines and team totals directly source from the pointspread, which is established first. Does anyone actually believe that oddsmakers would allow plus return on the Dolphins money line, if they weren't predicting Buffalo to win the game? Just step back and look at the big picture once in a while. Immense clarity.
* Pointspreads source from blended power ratings. Nothing else. The oddsmakers don't care about matchups or series history or virtually any variable that makes its way into fan forums. There is no time for subjective garbage and distraction, given all the sports they book on a daily basis. They steal numerous sets of reputable power ratings and the consensus spits out the number, once home field (if any) is assigned.
* College home field remains 3 points, and higher in some instances. The NFL was down to 2.3 more than a decade ago and now it has dropped further to 2.0 territory. Road teams thrived during the 2020 pandemic season without fans and the trend has mostly continued. Check this link to Jeff Sagarin's NFL power ratings. You'll note above that he specifies to add 2 points to the home team. Not 3, it is 2. If you check his college football power ratings page, that home assignment remains 3:
* Those Sagarin numbers provide insight toward this pointspread. He's still got Buffalo's power rating .9 above Miami. Most power ratings I've looked at are similar. Those numbers along with the home field produce this number, in the 2.5 to 3 range. Not exactly complicated. Power ratings move slowly. If the public were involved they'd move like a freight train and it would be a weekly picnic, like Colorado favored over Alabama.
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Two weeks ago this spread was Buffalo -4.5. Last week it was -3.5. Those are not minor moves. It is immense accelerating respect toward the Dolphins. And when the season wins over/under was compiled during the offseason, this number would have been slotted into the formula in territory of Buffalo -6. All the Miami future numbers have been adjusted along those lines. I never get carried away and am a believer in everything drifts back to the beginning. However, this scenario does not own those vulnerabilities, not to typical degree. Points scored in the NFL is the ultimate trump card. You can basically ignore everything else in deference to likelihood of reaching 24+, or 27+, and the kingmaker 31+.
Last season I wanted every play over the middle. That's the cheat code in this sport, at all levels. It's so laughable to watch these 3rd down designs of floaters down the sideline. Miami owns ridiculous margin simply via McDaniel's understanding to window dress one design after another when all it's going to be is yet another dagger over the middle.
I still think he gets too cute once in a while and strays. But this year the flank material has greater variety and premise.
I'm still bothered by what happens if Tua is forced into a drop back game. Fortunately not many defenses are capable of that level or even aspire to it.
Mostly I'm concerned that every favorite team championship of my lifetime has included championship caliber personnel, even if upstart like the '83 Canes. This Dolphins defense has so many marginal pieces. It was awesome to finally get rid of Noah but a proactive franchise would have already taken similar steps with Raekwon and a few others.
